Naturally, after going 4-0 on Opening Day I cam back down to Earth a little bit with a 1-3 Sunday. How do the Guardians (gonna be a while until typing that isn’t weird) score 17 runs and Franmil Reyes doesn’t hit a HR? No worries though, we are back at it on Thursday as we have officially completed the first week of the 2022 MLB season.
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Dodgers O/U 5.5 Runs
Starting off the season at Coors Field, you would expect the loaded Los Angeles lineup to explode right out the gate. That was not the case as the Dodgers amassed just 11 total runs in losing two out of three to the Rockies. The team then traveled to Minnesota and kicked it into gear, sweeping the Twins and scoring 7 runs in each of the two games. Now the Dodgers are back in Chavez Ravine for the first time this season and being home should have this lineup cooking. Luis Cessa is the starter Cincinnati is tossing out there and he has already pitched twice this season in relief. You just take a look at the Dodgers lineup and it is very clear that Mr. Cessa doesn’t stand a chance. Sorry Reds fans. Cessa is going to have to face Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner and that is at the bare minimum. Oh and to top it off, LA’s 7-8-9 hitters all homered on Wednesday. Over 5.5 runs could hit before it even gets dark out there at Dodger Stadium.
Pick: Dodgers OVER 5.5 Runs (+105 DK)
Blue Jays @ Yankees O/U 8.5 Runs
A pitching duel between experienced arms with plus stuff like Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino certainly screams under right? Wrong. Both Gausman and Severino were underwhelming in their first starts of the season, combining to allow 5 ERs in 8 innings and I think it will take them a few starts to really get going, especially for Severino. However the real reason for the over here is Yankee Stadium and its absurd dimensions/wind tunnel. This stadium is a home run hitter’s delight and there are plenty of them scattered throughout the Blue Jays and Yankees lineups. I mean, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit three there last night all by himself. People will see Gausman and Severino and immediately look to the under, but we know better than to doubt the run scoring ability of the Blue Jays and Yankees in the Bronx.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110 DK, +110 FD)
Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run
JT Brubaker has shown some promise since coming up with the Pirates in 2020, but one area that he continually struggles in is giving up the home run ball. A 22.4% HR/FB rate really hindered him last season and those struggles reared their ugly head again on Opening Day when he allowed a 3-run HR to Tyler O’Neill. Now Juan Soto and the Washington Nationals are in town and I think we are getting very good odds here for another Brubaker bomb. Soto is not the biggest HR hitter, but he already has two on the young season and looks like he is already in mid-season form. PNC Park has a nice short right field porch with the Clemente Wall that should play nicely for Soto. At +475, it is very hard to pass up Soto hitting a HR tonight. Who knows, he may even find the Allegheny River, although I don’t think the sportsbooks have odds for that.
Pick: Soto to Hit a Home Run (+475 DK, +410 FD)
Walker Buehler to Record a Win
There are two things I look for when I am researching pitchers to record a win: 1) the offense backing the pitcher and 2) the pitcher’s ability to get through five innings. I am not necessarily concerned with a pitcher coming out with an immaculate or dominating performance. I just need the offense to get the starter out to a solid lead and the pitcher just needs to go long enough to get that win. As you can see above, I am very confident in the Dodgers’ ability to get out to an early lead against Luis Cessa and the Reds, giving Walker Buehler all the support he needs to move to 2-0 on the young season. Buehler went 16-4 in 2021 and in 33 starts he completed 5 innings of work an incredible 31 times. And now we get him to win at +140?! Lock it in.
Pick: Buehler to Record a Win (+140 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 5-3-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $335.00
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)