Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is “how in the Sam Hill has it only been under 3 weeks of baseball? It sure threw us off with the Dodgers and some players already having slump panic reversed in just a few games. But hey, even though the tradition of the players I have written as a “sell” having a homer and a huge day the day of the article (which continued with Triston Casas), I still look like I was onto something there. Still, early season content is quite difficult as sometimes all of the stats tell a story and you just have to rely on your experience to say “the evidence is damning, but I just don’t trust the evidence”. If you’re more reactionary and bold like I am, you tend to do better in deeper leagues but you also make more mistakes, but I regret nothing. Also, I went way overboard with about double the blurbs I usually write, just because it’s so hard to choose. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Shea Langeliers (C, Athletics)
I’m in my lane, unbothered, moisturized, so time to butter up Shea. If you drafted him hoping for a big breakout or at least a discount Cal Raleigh you’re probably feeling… okay, I guess? He’s hitting just .216 with 3 home runs and 8 R and 8 RBI in 58, which probably didn’t attract much notice since, well, that’s about what most expect from Langeliers, who set a career-best batting average last year with a .224 mark. Yeah. But I’m still bullish that now’s a great time to buy, because that batting average is a big Langeliar.
He has a terrible .195 BABIP, which is masking the fact that he currently is rocking just a 12% K%, which is less than half of his 27% K% from 2024. I actually had noted last year that the K rate seemed unlucky given his decent 13% SwStr% and 28.5%, but then what really caught my eye was this spring when he managed to, in a quite amazing and underreported fashion, maintain a K% of 2% in 44 Spring Training PA. While it seems he was more aggressive in the spring with a 59% Swing%, he has now managed to be more disciplined with a career-best 26% O-Swing% leading to a 14% BB%, with a strong 82% Contact% and 91% Z-Contact%.
While it’s always possible he’s sacrificing power for contact since his barrel rate is down to just 7% and is still several miles per hour off his 2024 MaxEV of 114 mph (current MaxEV is 110 mph), his 93 mph average eV and 50% HardHit% still has me buying. Especially if he can revert to hitting fewer grounders in his new home park, he could be in for a .250, 30 HR monster year. If he’s still around in 10-team AVG and OBP formats get him now, but he’s a trade target in all leagues, and perhaps try to flip today’s hot catchers like Dingler or Keibert and then some to get him.
Eugenio Suarez (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
You know how long and yet short these few weeks of April have been in that Suarez went from a stud to a dud before Tax Day. I mean, he still has 5 home runs to his name, but given he hit four of them in the past week and hit just .098 with 1 HR in 41 AB in the two weeks since, people holding him who didn’t try to flip him for a fast buck might feel like the guys who didn’t cash out on Dogecoin at it’s 2021 peak before its namesake became synonymous with a lame billionaire who got trolled on a gaming livestream. Suarez is now hitting just .145 overall, but his .277 OBP and .455 SLG% are still okay, and Statcast still loves him with a .235 xBA and .580 xSLG. Wait, what? Hey, “Wait, what” my nickname in college! (Just ask Nick, we were suitemates.)
Yeah, this slump isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, as he still has an elite 61% HardHit% and 95 mph average exit velocity. That’s right, his average exit velocity is a HardHit. His barrel rate is also a career-best 19%. Sure, it will probably regress, but he’s not washed up at 33 (weirdly he gets more dinged for his age than guys like Christian Walker who are older) and it seems it’s a continuation of his big second half in 2024. And as Tanner Houck’s last Gombering taught us, sometimes second halves do matter. Given the strength of the lineup around him, I’d target him now and sit pretty on someone who may be a top-7 third baseman the rest of the way and leave you toasting with some Eugenessy.
Honorable Mention: Tommy Edman (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers) – Yes, I know he’s probably not available in your shallowest leagues given he’s tied for the home run major league lead, but I strongly encourage you to buy high. Although his .235 AVG and .529 are good, his .189 BABIP masks that he’s actually deserved much better, with nearly double the barrels (7) than he had all of last season (4), and an xBA of .305 and xSLG of .606. Even without double-digit SBs, he could have a career fantasy year from the bat alone.
Honorable Mention: J.T. Realmuto (C, Philadelphia Phillies) – Sure, he’s hitting .222 with no homers so far, but he’s healthy, playing regularly, he’s running A LOT (4 SB, 0 CS) and his peripherals suggest all is well, and so does his .291 xBA and .408 xSLG. Basically, you should target him now in trades before they realize he’s still a top 5 and maybe even top-3 catcher.
12-team
Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs)
His career over the past two years has been such a roller coaster, you may as wall call him Busch Gardens. Well this week he’s made quite a splash, sliding into three homers with a .381 AVG to bring his season total to .310/.394/.621 with 4 homers in 58 AB. His HardHit% is up to 50%, but compared to some of the other high-end first basemen, he doesn’t seem to have a lasting formula to hang with them. His 12% is similar to last year’s 11% mark, and his MaxEV of 108 mph suggests his current hard hit rate spike isn’t a sign of newfound power but rather a hot run.
As far as his plate discipline goes, while his CSW% is the exact same 27.4% as last year, his overall contact% has worsened to 70% with a fringe 80% Z-Contact% (something which you’re likely familiar with if you’d heard enough Justin Mason rants). He’s on a red hot offense and he’s not in a platoon, so he’s fine to ride out if you got stuck with one of the struggling first basemen like Burger, Casas, Toglia, etc. and you need something new, but I’d still gladly upgrade to Rice, Tork, or even the platooning Aranda if there’s an opportunity to upgrade via trade.
Ryan Mountcastle (1B, Baltimore Orioles)
There have been a lot of surging first baseman. Then there is Mountcastle. He wonders how he got here, with his 1 (count ’em, one) home run and solid but unspectacular .271 AVG and 4 RBI in 48 AB. But of course, I’m setting up some sort of reveal that goes behind the numbers that will suddenly make you interested, aren’t I? You betcha.
- That’s the reveal. That’s his MaxEV this year, which is not just higher than anything he hit last year, but 3 mph higher, and also 2 mph higher than anything else he’s hit in his career. Lest you think it was an insignificant event on his overall power output, he’s also hitting a career-best average EV of 93 mph, HardHit% of 55%, and even a career-best Barrel% of 18%, double his 2024 mark of 9%. Sure, small samples blah blah blah, but this is instantly meaningful that he can reach this power potential. Yes, he did sacrifice some contact to get there, with a notably worse 71% Contact% and 32% CSW%, but at least this makes me believe more that this was a conscious change, and typically trading contact for power goes better for results than the other way around.
Don’t forget his home park wall was moved in, because he clearly didn’t, given his career-high 45% pull%. His xBA of .295 and xSLG of .490 show that Statcast believes in him, though he still has some kinks to work out… more flyballs, for one. Buy low in 12-team AVG formats before the incoming Mountcastle trebuchet barrage.
Honorable Mention: Otto Lopez (2B/3B, Miami Marlins) – Otto has cooled off bigtime since I recommended him as a 12-team AVG league add, hitting just .139 with no socks or shoes, to leave him at .232 with 2 HR and 1 SB in 56 AB. But I still believe in him, with a .305 xBA and 12% barrel% that’s more than double his 5% rate in 2024, and backed by an improved MaxEV of 110 mph. If he rediscovers his wheels a 20/20 season or at least 15/15 season could be in the cards and be this year’s Luis Garcia Jr..
Honorable Mention: Jake Burger (1B/3B, Texas Rangers) – He’s really been raked over the coals with an ugly .151 AVG and .302 SLG% with 2 HR over 55 PA, but that .167 BABIP won’t last forever, and he has enough track record. I know it’s been a bitter dry rub, but even if you get buy-low trade offers, do not flip the Burger.
15-team
Angel Martinez (OF, Cleveland Guardians)
I’m going out on a limb for Angel here, as he wasn’t even listed as a regular and has only had 10 AB (with 5 hits). See, whereas last year he was a contact-only guy whose main attribute was a modicum of power and speed with multiple-position eligibility, don’t forget, he was just 22. He must’ve been eating his Wheaties, because his early bat speed readings have been excellent, with a well above-average bat speed of 73 mph, which combines quite nicely with his low 14% Whiff%.
I’m not saying he’s the next Mookie Betts or anything, but I think that even without elite top-end exit velocities, he could be one of those guys who comes out of nowhere to hit .280-.290 with 15-20 homers off your wire, and you may have a lot less time than you think to snag him. I already took him in most of my leagues with unnecessarily aggressive bids, and I regret nothing. Add in all deep leagues and 15-team average leagues as a spec who may now qualify at 2B in leagues with one-game eligibility.
Chase Meidroth (2B/SS, Chicago White Sox)
Just because he’s from Boston and has most of the same vowels in his name, it doesn’t mean Meidroth will be the next Dustin Pedroia. But he’ll still be pretty good. I think he won’t have the Nick Madrigal problem where the bat can be knocked out of his hands, as his max power is nearly league average, and he just has a mature approach at the plate. My biggest concern is actually that he’s too passive, as MLB pitchers will likely challenge him in the strike zone, so he could end up behind in the count and having a surprisingly high strikeout rate despite a low whiff rate if he can’t adjust. Still, he should have basically guaranteed playing time going forward at the top of the lineup, which is a great situation. Add in all 15-team leagues and consider as a spec in 12-team OBP.
Honorable Mention: Alex Call (OF, Washington Nationals) – His crazy low whiff rate of 3% SwStr% with a 92% Contact% probably won’t last, but it got him a spot atop the lineup and that is valuable in itself.
Honorable Mention: Joc Pederson (DH, Texas Rangers) – Joc Jams will make a comeback. We know this. He just be streaky. HODL.
Deep Leagues
Jhonkensy Noel (1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)
And the Jhonkensy smote the Kerrek, and all was laid to burnination. Sorry, my obscure references have gone bad… Strong Bad. Here are two numbers you don’t expect to see together: A 117 mph MaxEV and a 3% Barrel%. Methinks the latter is the fraud. It’s true his 59% GB% is excessive, but at least hard-hit grounders often become hits, and he needs some batting average.
His biggest concern however, is why I’m most bullish. His contact% of 67% is still definitely not good and the same as last year, but his plate discipline improvements can make it work. He’s at least been more aggressive (super aggressive) on the plate which results in fewer called strikes, while actually chasing less, with a much-improved 79% Z-Swing% and 38% O-Swing%. So despite his poor 19% SwStr%, his CSW% is solidly league-average at 28%. It’s true that his playing time hasn’t been consistent, but thus far he’s faced an equal amount of lefties and righties, and actually fared slightly better (or should I say, less poorly) against the righties. I believe the power and the playing time will come, and when he does, he could be the next Franimal.
Nasim Nunez (SS, Washington Nationals)
We are living in a Nasimulation. With Abrams down, Nasim, who caught my eye this spring with some excellent aggressiveness on the base paths, is the one who got the call and it looks like he’s going to play. With Roster Resource listing him as the fill-in shortstop and #9 hitter (which is actually a relatively good thing for a speedster if they can’t crack the top of the lineup), he sneaky speed-only play who has an opportunity for playing time. Sure he might wallop your average, as he’s struggled to hit above .250 even in the minors, but could rack up big SB totals in a small amount of time. He’s an add in deep formats for the upside but will be much better for OBP leagues.
Honorable Mention: Luis Matos (OF, San Francisco Giants) – He’s currently on the small side of a platoon, but Matos still has not struck out once in 20 AB and has 2 barrels and a 47% HardHit%. Maybe it’s platoon-friendly cherry-picking, maybe it’s a hidden breakout, maybe it’s Maybelluis.
Honorable Mention: Miles Mastrobuoni (2B/SS/3B, Seattle Mariners) – The Maestro has only one career homer, but is also sporting a 67% HardHit% this year with his best contact% ever. No I don’t believe Statcast that he deserves to hit over .300, but he seems to have regular playing time and can at least be solid for batting average and stolen bases with multiple eligibilities in Yahoo.
Honorable Mention: Myles Straw (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – Myles 2 goes when the pitcher sleeps. His early 91% contact% is a career-best and could have some temporary value as a batting average and steals play until Varsho returns.
SELL
10-team
Mookie Betts (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Please DO NOT DROP HIM. Okay? Yes, Buy & Sell is sometimes ambiguous and sometimes I mean just trade a player when I feel their value is at a peak, or at least will likely decline. His bat speed is lower than ever (even for him) at just 67 mph, or 5th percentile. So even though he came out guns blazing on opening day, there may not be big bullets left in the chamber. His surface numbers like dandy with a .304 AVG with 4 HR and 1 SB, so he should recoup full value or near full value in a trade. Which is good because he could fall out of the top 10 OF by season’s end. Cue spooky Mookie noises.
Sure, that’s not the worst thing, but his Statcast line leaves me concerned, with just a .245 xBA and .364 SLG%. Given he’s not exactly tearing up the base paths either, you need to think how you’d feel if Mookie ended up more hitting .280 and 15/15. Who does that remind me of… oh right! Peak Melky Cabrera. Sure, maybe he’ll gain the weight he lost, but everything I heard is that it’s pretty hard to actually gain weight in season and most players lose more. And his MaxEV right now is 101.5 mph, and I know Nick tells me to round up but here I think the extra 0.5 is noteworthy. That’s really low power! Don’t get too spooked by my doomcasting, but like, maybe you can use him to buy low on a struggling star like Yordan or some other second-round bats?
Dishonorable Mention: Keibert Ruiz (C, Washington Nationals) – He has a .364 AVG and .509 SLG% and it’s legit because he has a .370 xBA. Yeah that, use that when you trade him away. His contact% while still great, is no better than last year, and his HardHit% and barrel% are also the same. He was unlucky last year, but should still regress heavily.
12-team
Marcus Semien (2B, Texas Rangers)
He always was the guy who alternated a bad season with a good one, but at this point, things are no longer as they Semien. No it’s not the best name pun, but the better ones would make Nick blush and leave me exiled to Elba. I want to reassure you that everything will be okay with Marcus, but I went on a limb to do that last year, and I was mostly wrong… I mean I even nearly cut him in an AL-only. So we really needed to see something out of the gate, and we didn’t get it. Well we did see something… but it’s not good.
His contact% is down to just 76%, which is kind of a big deal for a player who uses a high contact rate to compensate for lack of raw power. And the raw power? Well, the MaxEV and barrel rate haven’t changed much, but he is down a big amount to just 26% HardHit%. Given he already is a non-factor on the basepaths, you’re basically banking on the perception of him being a run producer. But his lineup spot is not guaranteed, the Rangers have not been producing runs generally, and if he’s not hitting, runs aren’t scoring. Let’s give him credit for maxing out a physical skillset that was highly unlikely to be the elite player he was for many years, but to me it seems he might be in for a rather quick and ugly decline. He’s still totally fine in 15-team, but he might be a .235 with 15-18 homer guy now, and that just hurts to hold onto in a 12-teamer. And hey, it could always be worse.
Dishonorable Mention: Gabriel Moreno (C, Arizona Diamondbacks) – When you’re a catcher where your main asset is hitting for average, you should at least do that. Instead we get an empty .222 with 0 HR and 0 SB. A 30% CSW% doesn’t give me hope that’s changing. Where’s Adrian Del Castillo when you need him?
15-team
Jake McCarthy (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Well, you can have all the preseason hype in the world, but a funny thing happens when you don’t get a single hit in your first several games, and you don’t have very good defense or like any power. I think you get the gist. Look, this is why rabbits are evil and kill your roster with lasers. Last year he had an average exit velocity of 83 mph, which is like, Myles Straw-esque. Hey at least Straw is making contact at a higher rate. He may very well be superior to McCarthy the rest of the season, and I’m just hoping they do the ol’ demote and recall trick that’s worked for him a few times. But Alek Thomas might not give it back this time.
Dishonorable Mention: Alan Roden (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – I was hoping he was going to be the next Steven Kwan, y’know? Sure looked that way in spring. He’s still playing, but being a real replacement level guy and maybe that’s too generous.
Deep Leagues
Jose Tena (2B/3B, Washington Nationals)
Abrams is on the IL, Garcia is in a platoon, and I just saw DeJong get hit in the face with a ball. Ouch, sorry Paul. What I’m saying is there should be opportunities aplenty for Tena, who I liked plenty last August. But he’s simply not doing any of the things I liked from last year, with a pitifully low hard contact rate and poor contact. Nasim Nunez probably deserves reps above him now, maybe he needs a demotion to get his mojo back.
Dishonorable Mention: Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF, Detroit Tigers) – The return of Kerry Carpenter got Malloy demoted from a leadoff hitter to a benchwarmer. Maybe if he actually had, like, actually hit in his feature act he could’ve held on to something, but he’s like a Spanish Jew because Justyn-Henry fue Mal. Oy.
