Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is “National League a-plenty!” I admit that growing up as a Red Sox fan and a Tigers fan, I have always had a bit of an AL bias, but exploring the wire in NL leagues was more fun for me. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Miguel Vargas (1B/3B, Chicago White Sox)
His April started off slow, but lately he’s stepped on the Var-Gas. In fact, he’s done nearly ALL his damage in the past two weeks, hitting a phenomenal .333 with two homers and two stolen bases this week, and hitting .265 with five homers (and still two SB) over the past 2 weeks. He’s also been an OBP God as he has more walks (23) than strikeouts (21) in his 103 AB (129 PA), and in the past 2 weeks, the walks nearly double the Ks (13 BB to 7 K).
Lest you think this is just a hot streak, consider that he’s doing all this with a .208 BABIP. Granted, it’s true that he does hit a lot of flyballs, lowering BABIP, but this still seems too unlucky, and his xBA of .241 and xSLG of .476 would agree. While those rates may also not seem world-beating, don’t forget that on top of the OBP, which gives him plenty of run-scoring potential with new masher Murakami in town, but also the surprising uptick in SB… with one more, he’ll have already matched his total from last year (6). I think it’s not just a fluke, as his sprint speed actually ratcheted up to an eyebrow-raising degree, from 51st percentile in 2025 to 80th percentile this year. He’s obviously a superstar in OBP formats, but I think that, given the fact that 3B has been even more awful than expected, he’s a must-add hitter in all formats.
Spencer Steer (1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds)
Steer has grabbed his opportunity by the horns and has turned things in the right direction. He shook off some early April rust and concerns that Sal Stewart’s emergence would push him to a backup role, and now hitting a punchy .217 with five HR and one SB in 103 PA. That’s fine and all. But I think if that’s as far as you look, you’re like a nostalgic millennial and missing Spencer’s gifts.
For one, he’s actually underperforming his expected rates, with a more cromulent .239 xBA and mighty .499 xSLG. Still, this doesn’t really sound like shallow league intrigue, does it? Hear me out. For one, Steer is someone who has historically overperformed his weak-looking Statcast rates, and of course, part of that reason is his hitter-friendly home park. Part of that is a suddenly excellent 17% Barrel% (90th percentile), which is more than double his Barrel% from any other year.
But the other reason is what I’m more excited about. Statcast doesn’t account for PullAir%, which is why Steer and many other hitters continually overperform their xBA (Poster Boy: Isaac Paredes). Steer has always been a big PullAir% guy, but this year he’s continued his career trend of improving his PullAir% every single year with a fantastic 27% (league average is around 16%). On top of that, his sprint speed has rebounded from a drop last year, suggesting he’s fully healthy. While Nate Lowe’s recent surge adds to the crowd, Steer can easily go 20/20 again, but I think he very well could hit 25 homers, which is a much more palatable batting average. His five-category upside and versatility are underrated, and he should be added in all 10-teamers.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins) – He has no homers yet, but stay patient… the early signs remain very promising with a 69% hardhit% (nice) but also a surprising 17% K rate. Homer binge incoming.
12-team
Alec Burleson (1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
It looks like he’s been working out and getting Alec Burly, son. He’s the kind of guy you probably calculated to get in a draft because you waited too long and weren’t excited about, but I’m here to hype him, and given that I’ve more or less ignored Burleson in the past, maybe that counts for something! While he hasn’t done anything notable this week, and is clocking in boring lines of about .250 with a homer and 5 RBI per week, I think the breakout will happen.
He’s increased his barrel rate and hardhit% so far, with a 12% Barrel and 47% HardHit% that are both 77th percentile, with a .543 xSLG at 90th percentile. You’d expect he was selling some of his contact skills for those power gains, but his K rate has actually improved (though whiff rate suggests it should regress to being like last year’s, which is still good. The 14% K% is excellent for someone who is also hitting the ball hard and barrelling it up, and with that combo, you’d think he’d have more than 3 homers. He may very well be rostered, but I recommend targeting him in a trade, as his lack of flashiness makes him easy to overlook, but I think he can help in 4 categories (with at least a handful of SBs).
Spencer Torkelson (1B, Detroit Tigers)
I guess it’s a good week to be a Spencer. After a brutal first few weeks, he turned his season around faster than anyone, with quite the impressive feat: 5 consecutive games with a homer. That’s more of an argument than anything else I’m going to say. But I’ll say it anyway. IF you assume some of his homer binge was luck, consider that his .228 AVG and .456 SLG% pale in comparison to a .248 xBA and .512 xSLG. Behind the scenes, you can see he’s doing it the right way, with a studly 17% barrel%, and a career-best BB% backed by an even better 97th percentile chase rate. For those of you in OBP leagues, you should be salivating.
I also must say that I like the fact that he’s succeeding despite actually hitting fewer balls in the air, with his launch angle down from a more extreme 23 degrees to a more standard 16%. That’s still a 48% flyball%, but with a fabulous career-best 45% SweetSpot% (97th percentile), he’s actually stinging his flyballs instead of getting too under the ball and hitting lazy cans of corn. He also had a big start in 2025 before tailing off, so it’s fair to doubt if it lasts. But few first basemen can match his power output when he’s on. And he’s on. Add in 12-team AVG leagues and 10-team OBP, and if he’s rostered, I recommend targeting him in OBP since that chase rate suggests the walk rate is more than just a small sample fluke.
Honorable Mention: Carlos Cortes (OF, Athletics) – Short King Cortes has ascended to the throne. Don’t despair that he’s playing less this week, as it’s an unusually lefty-heavy week, but Rooker’s return doesn’t affect him as much now that Muncy is out.
Honorable Mention: Cole Young (2B, Seattle Mariners) – Speaking of kings, Young King Cole is hitting the ball better lately, and this is arguably more a vibes play, but every day he’s hitting balls hard and deep and I still think he can be a 20+ homer bat with solid average, and I love that his PullAir% is up to an excellent 28%.
15-team
Nate Lowe (1B, Cincinnati Reds)
Maybe all Lowe needed was a different shade of Red. He’s quickly caught fire in a small sample since playing time opened up for him, hitting a fantastic .333 with 4 home runs just this week. Sure, given his streaky track record, it’s fair to be skeptical, but I’m quite encouraged that he only struck out twice in 22 AB this week, and has posted a healthier K rate generally with only 8 Ks and 5 walks in 52 AB. It’s supported by an 18% whiff rate, and let’s remember he did hit .265 with 16 homers just in 2024, and in the small sample, Lowe’s whiff rate, barrel% and bat speed are all better this year… oh and don’t forget that he’s now in the most hitter-friendly park he’s ever been in (some say that about Fenway but it’s very hit or miss).
Even in a trading league, I think it’s okay to “overpay” a bit to get Lowe, since I think ultimately the fact he was so ignored in drafts was a bit of bad process, as he’s still just 30 but was written off for dead after one down season. But wait, there’s more. He’s actually underperforming his expected stats, with an outrageously small sample studliness of .315 xBA and .570 xSLG. While he obviously can’t keep that up, there are a few more hype pieces worth noting: He’s already posted the best MaxEV since 2022 with a ball hit 113 mph, with an increase in bat speed (74 mph) and a huge jump in his fastswing% from 24% in 2025 to 44%. But the cherry on top: For the first time in his career, he’s posting an above-average PullAir% of 21%, and a higher air% in general, in the best park to hit flyballs. If he’s taken, I’d offer another hot player for him and let them think it’s found money, while I celebrate getting a player who can outhit several first basemen drafted before pick 300.
Nolan Arenado (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
His career is not yet Arenadone. He’s rebounded from a terrible 2025 with a strong start, hitting .283 with four taters, though the batting average truly skyrocketed this week with an incredible 9-for-16 (.564) with a homer. While his average eV remains low, his strikeout rate is up to a rather alarming degree. I will remind you, third base is terrible. Oh, and also, he improved his PullAir% to the rates of a few years prior, and he’s simply in a better hitter’s ballpark than St. Louis. As long as he stays healthy and playing, he has a chance to post the most boring and unimpressive top-20 season at 3B in recent memory.
Honorable Mention: Sam Antonacci (2B/OF, Chicago White Sox) – Remain patient; he should be fine. His K% is just 7% with a .304 AVG, and he makes a great buy-low still in trade leagues, even though the lack of early stolen base success has been disappointing.
Deep Leagues
Kyle Karros (3B, Colorado Rockies)
I have a lot of vitamin A, so I can see that, although raw, I should crunch on Karros. So far, he’s been quite unimpressive on the surface, hitting just 1 homer and below the Mendoza line. But the large 23-year-old (6 foot 5) is poised to break out. He’s been hitting balls at the right angles this year, with a massive jump of 26% in 2025 to an elite 42% this year. On top of that, he’s displayed bigger raw power, with his 112 MaxEv a shocking jump of 4 mph from his best mark, a below league-average 108 MaxEV in 2025. He’s lowered his K% to just 21% while massively increasing his BB% to 17%, making him especially useful in OBP leagues. If none of that convinces you, just remember… he’s a hitter who can make contact, hitting regularly, on the Rockies. Good things will come, so scoop him cheap now and soon you’ll be singing in the car like Seal belting Kiss from Karros. A stretch, I know.
Nathan Church (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
This is the third time I’ve written him up, and the last time I did it was as a sell. But I realized writing Church as a sell didn’t really make sense, since, despite his hot start, his roster rate was low, and nobody believed in it enough to have trade value. Which is why I think he’s a buy now. His expected stats, while better than before, indicate regression on the way, with a boring .240 AVG and merely average .424 xSLG% compared to his 5 dingers and actual SLG% of .461. But I think that misses the point.
Church is hot right now, with four homers over the past two weeks, and a .341 AVG and three SB over that span, which is great because that comes about a week after I cut him in a 30-team dynasty league. What’s intriguing is that two of the homers he hit this week were his hardest hit balls of the season, clocking in at 110 mph, which immediately raises his ceiling from the more fringy 107 mph MaxEV from last year. If he can hit .250 and go 15/15, that’s an amazing deep league find, and he’s hit well enough to get continued runway to see if that can happen.
Honorable Mention: Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, Cincinnati Reds) – I can’t believe it either, but he’s actually posted good K rates, good barrel rates, and a career-high FB%, but the surface stats still spit in his face. If he keeps playing, which it seems he will, I think he could be in for a surprisingly decent year despite the putrid start,
Honorable Mention: Andruw Monasterio (SS, Boston Red Sox) – Although he’s not quite a full-time player, he’s been hot recently, hitting .318 with 1 homer and 0 strikeouts in 14 AB. With Story and Duran’s continued struggles, he can add versatility, and he’s displayed significantly improved power. He’s much more useful in Yahoo leagues that use one game eligibility, since in those leagues he actually qualifies at every position but pitcher and catcher.
SELL
10-team
Trevor Story (SS, Boston Red Sox)
Is it time to close the book on Story? I think it may be. Of course, we said that last May before he went on a legendary run, that’s true. But just because it happened once doesn’t mean it will again. In the meantime, Story has been awful, hitting .197 with a .295 xSLG to go along with 2 homers and 2 SB. That lack of stolen bases really hurts, since that’s the primary driver of his value, and now that the Red Sox management has had their Red Wedding, we need to see if he’ll get the green light again, but if not, look out.
While Story outproduced his peripherals in 2025, one thing he did well was hit the ball hard, with a 91 mph average EV and a 10% Barrel%. This year, that’s down an 89 mph AVG EV and only a 3% Barrel%. Just about every single Statcast slider has gone down from his 2026 season, and perhaps it’s noticeable that among them, a Sprint Speed which was 82nd percentile in 2025 and now down to a more pedestrian 72nd percentile. It’s entirely possible he’s playing through an injury; his teammate Monasterio, who primarily plays shortstop, IS hitting, and Story isn’t exactly in the team’s good graces after mouthing off about the firings. Shortstop has many other power/speed options that you can find in a 10-teamer, and I’d prefer most of them because I’m sure they can hit, and I see some troubling comps between Story and fellow former Rockie Troy Tulowitzki.
Honorable Mention: Brenton Doyle (OF, Colorado Rockies) – While Doyle has continued to steal bases, his quality of contact metrics are way down across the board, and the playing time mess is not worth the squeeze in 10-team formats and some 12-team formats as well (depending on your needs.
12-team
Andres Gimenez (2B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays)
I had him as a buy in the first week or so, but he’s gone from a buy-low to a sell-high. He now seems like a batting average asset, but really, all of his peripherals show he’s basically the same hitter that he was last year, but the luck dragons decided to take him to a different place. While his season line of .277 with 3 HR and 4 SB seems like everything you could’ve asked for and more, his .237 xBA and .332 xSLG suggest things are only going downhill from here. Sure, you might want to check his PullAir% in case that’s the reason he’s overperformed, right? Wrong, He’s actually also posting a career-worst PullAir of just 13%. I’d “sell high” on him, but remember to ask too much for Gimenez in a trade, since nowadays most fantasy leaguers can see the same information.
Honorable Mention: Cedric Mullins (OF, Tampa Bay Rays) – I know everyone wants stolen bases, but how low can you go with the Cedric Mullimbo. He’s got 2 homers and 6 SB, but his .126 AVG remains, and it’s not bad luck. His xBA of .150 and xSLG of .263 are laughable,
15-team
Tyler O’Neill (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
O’Neill Homer, O’Neill Homer, Wherefore art thou O’Neill homer? He only has the one lone homer, with a .211 AVG, in just 43 PA in the crowded Baltimore outfield. Most of the things that intrigued me in his profile last year seem significantly reduced, especially his bat speed, which has declined 3 miles an hour, from 74 mph to 71 mph. Between the playing time unpredictability and his lack of skills, I think it’s time to ditch him for someone who you can count on to be in the lineup.
Honorable Mention: Javier Sanoja (OF, Miami Marlins) – He was interesting as a deep league play and is now hitting .323, but it looks very unsustainable given his poor quality of contact.
