Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is… Dang, it’s hot! My hometown in New York has been scorching over 100 degrees, and it’s certainly led to more big hitter performances, though still not quite the slugfest I was hoping for. Man do I miss MLB Slugfest. Not a good game, per se, but a fun one. Anyway, the big debut this week was a pitching one, but there’s still plenty of hitters to get jazzed about, and there are still some diamonds in the rough, particularly in deeper formats. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Max Muncy (3B, Los Angeles Dodgers)
He can Muncy clearly now, the pain is gone. Whether or not it’s narrative or just one heck of a coincidence, he continues to hit out of his dang mind, with a .468 xwOBA in his last 100 PA and a still-excellent .439 xwOBA in his past 50 PA. What’s really incredible is how he’s cut down the strikeouts lately, hitting .333/.465/.606 with 2 HR and 10 RBI in 33 AB (42 PA) over the past 2 weeks with 9 walks and just 3 Strikeouts… and just 1 K in 17 AB (22 PA) this week. His season stats with a .246 AVG and 11 HR in 236 AB may still look drab enough that you can still trade for him in 10-team formats, though I sure hope he’s not on your wire anymore.
Nick Kurtz (1B, Athletics)
I hope you’re not surprised to learn the guy everyone spent about 25% of their season’s FAAB on is not a total bust after a rough first month. He’s now up to 10 HR with a .245 AVG in 159 PA. with half of his homers coming in the past 2 weeks alone (and 3 this week). The K’s will be high, but that amazing 78 mph bat speed don’t lie. Give your team a shot in the arm with some round-trippers thanks to a Kurtz donut.
12-team
Ben Rice (1B/C, New York Yankees)
Here’s one for those who kept the faith and kept a photograph of his bright red statcast sliders through the hard times. I called Goldschmidt a sell a few weeks ago, and seems I was right, as the Yankees have started to entrust Rice with more of the at-bats against righties, and he’s finally turning things around, going 6 for 14 this week (.429) with 2 HR and a 2/2 BB/K across 4 games. Hc not a full-timer, but I think this could be the end of his best buy-low window for 12-team formats.
Lars Nootbaar (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
Hope you didn’t give Noot the boot, now he’s back with a toot toot toot. A three-homer week has some fantasy leaguers flocking back to him, but really you shouldn’t have left, as his awful stretch and lineup demotion is in spite of the fact he’s been doing what we’ve always wanted him to do, finally lifting the ball with a marvelous 53% HardHit% rate. He may not run much, but it’s okay if he stays on the field since he can be an underrated power & batting average asset and a beast in OBP formats.
15-team
Luke Raley (1B/OF, Seattle Mariners)
He may seem to lack much offensive firepower, but I’m expecting some powerful blasts from the Rale gun. The 30-year-old has seemed to have wasted no time getting his footing after his IL return, and while his .232 AVG and 3 HR, 2 SB pace in 101 PA may still fly under the radar, I think he could be in for a career year, with a career-best 52% HardHit% and perhaps more importantly, a career-best 23% K%. That’s a big improvement from his previous best set last year at 30%, and with a 114 MaxEV, big things may be in store if he can keep even some of those gains.
Brandon Marsh (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
He’s another under-the-radar guy but unlike Raley, hasn’t had a triumphant return to turn heads yet. He doesn’t have a single homer in the past 3 weeks and only one stolen base over that span, but he is hitting .364/.420/.500, and his xwOBA is on the rise. His contact quality is as good as last year yet his 25% is a big improvement, so he could be a sneaky batting average asset and I expect the power/speed numbers to improve.
Luis Torrens (C, New York Mets)
This is the one profile that truly broke my brain. He’s been terrible on the surface, hitting just .108/.154/.108 in 37 AB over the past 3 weeks. But Statcast thinks he’s a god or at least a powerful deity with a .302 xBA and .532 xSLG, fueled by a 16% Barrel% and 57% HardHit%. It’s like a Magikarp that turns into a Gyarados when you cut him open. Though I don’t think you can do that in Pokemon and please keep filleting knives away from Mr. Torrens. With his main competition Francisco Alvarez demoted, it’s time to scoop him up in 15-teamers and makes the ultimate deep league buy-low.
Deep Leagues
Dominic Canzone (OF, Seattle Mariners)
I get that he’s seemed like a Quad-A type as he still hasn’t broken through at 27 years old, and worse, he went to Ohio State (Go Michigan!). But in his 47 PA this year, he has done two big things that make me optimistic of a breakout: He’s cut his K rate WAY down to just 13% (was 28% last year), and more importantly, hit a ball 116 mph. That’s more than 4 mph harder than ever before, and put him among the elites in raw power. Upside is hard to find in deep league outfields, and he has it, so get a new haircut and tell chief not now because you’re in the Canzone.
Donovan Solano (1B/3B, Seattle Mariners)
You know what you’re getting from Donovan Solano, kinda. At least a few weeks of unsettlingly good batting average, a power spurt here and there, and then at some point his bat will evaporate into dust. But for deep leagues, the 37-year-old keeps doing his thing and is a great batting average streamer while hot.
Gary Sanchez (C, Baltimore Orioles)
Hard to believe he’s still only 32. The talented yet highly flawed catcher suddenly has a real opportunity for playing time, and can do some serious small-sample damage with his gargantuan 94 mph average exit velocity (64% HardHit%), though also the same K problems as usual so don’t get too attached.
SELL
10-team
Ozzie Albies (2B, Atlanta Braves)
If this is who he is now, I may as well be Henry Winkler in Little Nicky. Oh no, not the Albies! NOT THE ALBIES! The sub-10th percentile xwOBA (.283), barrel% (3%), and HardHit% (27%) are in my eyes! He’s been steadily declining to a scary degree, with a poor .268 xwOBA over his past 250 PA that’s just below J.J. Bleday, and his rolling xwOBA over his past 100 PA is just .226. And over his past 50 PA? .190. That’s tied with David Hamilton. He’s still 98% rostered in CBS formats and 85% started in CBS formats and like, I get why, you spent that big draft capital and all, but if you can trade the name for anything decent, just do it before it gets worse. I know his injury issues have sapped his ability, but I guess Edwin McCain knew what he was singing about when he sang “Albies, your crying shoulder”. MAN my references are going to win over Gen Z. I’m hip!
T.J. Friedl (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
It’s not too flashy, but Friedl has demonstrated an impressive ability to outrun his expected stats, even though it seems he’s not running. He’s still hit .321 this week playing every day, and has 4 homers in the past 3 weeks, but those 3 weeks come without a single stolen base or even an attempt. I initially thought to consider him a buy, but looking closer, he’s failed to improve any of his very poor quality of contact metrics, with the same 16% K% of the past 3 years, with the only notable change being an improved 11% BB%. Yeah, I’d care a lot more about the walks if he were stealing bases, but it seems he has the red light, which really dampens the primary driver of his fantasy value. Perhaps flip him now while he still looks like a complete player with the recent homer surge and SB total that will look less impressive in a month or so.
12-team
Luis Arraez (1B, San Diego Padres)
Sorry, there’s a new better Arraez in town, and his name is Jacob Wilson. Perhaps I should be excited about Arraez being the most Arraez he’s ever been, with an unfathomable 1.9% K% on the season, and even though I’m supposed to round that up I’m keeping it that way because his strikeout rate is IN THE ONES! Buuuut it’s all “mushbuckets”, which is what I used to call pathetically weak contact that consituted a do-over in backyard wiffleball. His HardHit% is just 16%, a big drop from previous years, and with a terrible, worst in baseball .269 xwoBACON, he’s still unlikely to do enough good in batting average to make up for all the zeroes elsewhere.
Matt Wallner (OF, Minnesota Twins)
Look, I get why you love Wallner, okay? That 76 mph bat speed is bananas, and I mean Savannah Bananas where they couldn’t catch it trying to jump over the wall with stilts. And perhaps I should be encouraged that the 30% K% rate is better than his 36% rate from last year. But the more pedestrian 13% barrel% makes me think he’s compensating for it, and his .227 xBA and .432 xSLG do as well… and then there’s the fact that even at his best, he’s in a platoon. And he’s at his worst right now, with a .231 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA that’s the 9th biggest rolling xwOBA drop in the majors. With just a .130 AVG and 1 HR over 46 AB the past two weeks, he’s in danger of the Twins calling up a prospect and getting Wallnery Pipped.
15-team
Max Muncy (2B/SS/3B, Athletics)
A few weeks ago it seemed that both Muncys (unrelated) were surging, but it seems the bigger Muncy ate the smaller one’s nutrients. Muncy the Younger has hit just .205 with 1 homer over the past 2 weeks and .111 with no homers this week, with 10 strikeouts in 18 AB (21 PA) over that span. And striking out more than half the time is not conducive to fantasy success. He may still pop a homer here or there, but with Gelof’s return imminent and this Muncy having a very poor walk rate (just 6 walks on the season for a .236 OBP), it may be the contact-geared Luis Urias who takes over the lion’s share of remaining PT.
Abraham Toro (2B/3B, Boston Red Sox)
Maybe he’s called Toro, because you ran to him when you saw red on his Statcast page, and now you got these thorny sticks in you in the form of a .246 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA. He’s still playing, but it’s time to move on if you haven’t already, before the matador comes, and then worse, the PETA protestors.
Deep Leagues
Kyle Isbel (OF, Kansas City Royals)
He remains the most frequently on the waiver player in my home league (10-team AL-only), as it seems every team needed a chance to pick him up and then realize why we was dropped, much like a perfectly good chocolate bar that turns out to be filled with ants (thanks me for bringing up that traumatic childhood memory!). His days of outhitting his awful metrics finally caught up in a big way, as he’s hit just .116 with no homers or RBI in 43 AB the past 3 weeks, and just .069 in 29 ABs the past two weeks. Makes you wonder how the Royals are still in contention for a wildcard spot. As the Offspring said, “Don’t pick it up, yo!”
Keston Hiura (1B, Colorado Rockies)
Happy for him that he got another chance before ending up in Indy Ball or something, or maybe Korea. Just because the Rockies made a questionable decision with that (power doesn’t matter much if you strike out in more than third of your at-bats), doesn’t mean you should too, even in the deepest of NL only formats, or Hiura gonna regret it.
