Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is Wow, the White Sox are bad! That’s only tangentially relevant to the players I’ll mention here, but I felt like it still needed to be said again, especially since I called Luis Robert Jr. a 10-team sell! Still, there are some opportunities here that are worth looking into in deep leagues and some hot rebound players that can take you to the top in shallow leagues, so let’s get on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Masataka Yoshida (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Taka ’bout a bounceback. Yoshida has had plenty of trials and tribulations this season, failing to repeat last year’s power or speed totals without the .300 batting average that made it all a bit more palatable. And with poor defense to boot, before his injury he seemed to be on the outs with the team and losing playing time. But since his return, he’s been hitting .339/.426/.518 with two homers and 17 RBI in 56 AB (64 PA) over the past three weeks.
But perhaps why I’m a little more bullish is the improvement in plate discipline. Over the past three weeks, he drew eight walks to just six Ks, and although he seems to have cooled off this week, he’s only struck out once with three walks in 23 AB (26 PA). Given that he’s on the offense currently leading the league over the past month, getting on base and avoiding strikeouts is a great recipe for elite run production. I think he’ll be one of the best batting average streamers who may still be available in formats.
Luis Garcia, Jr. (2B, Washington Nationals)
I’m glad to say that Garcia Jr. was one of the players I drove the hype train on early on, as I got many shares of him in drafts and was excited by his early barrel rates. And although there have been many hills and valleys, he’s overall been performing like an All-Star, especially lately. He’s hitting a blistering .458 with three HRs and four SBs this week in 24 AB (26 PA), raising his season line to .289 with 13 HRs and 18 SBs in 360 AB, which makes you wonder what the Nationals were thinking when they were playing him earlier this year as a platoon bat.
You could make a fair argument that he is more valuable right now than the slumping CJ Abrams and would be a better fit atop the lineup with his higher batting average and general table-setter skills. While the Nationals’ offense as a whole is pretty weak, he still hits around the heart of the order, and unlike Abrams, has a great SB success rate; 18/21 (86%), compared to Abrams’ 20/30 (66%). He could get the Abrams treatment and run wild in the final homestretch. The combination of high floor and high upside (he just turned 24, and is much taller than Yoshida at 6’2) makes him a smart 10-team add, especially in AVG leagues.
Matt Chapman (3B, San Francisco Giants)
He’s been one of my favorite waiver wire guys all year who has too often stayed on said waiver wire, but has been one of the best fantasy 3B hitting .243/.333/.440 with 18 HRs, and most surprisingly, 12 SBs (just one CS), giving him an outside shot at a 25/20 season.
12-team
Jake Burger (3B, Miami Marlins)
He’s still a less complete hitter than he seemed to be in the second half of 2023, but he’s at least rediscovered his power stroke, hitting .284 with seven of his 17 HRs over the past three weeks, and three dingers in the past week. If you need massive power and can stomach the risk of a bad batting average and worse OBP, he’s your guy.
Hunter Renfroe (OF, Kansas City Royals)
He’s a strange player, as he still has big raw power with 92nd percentile bat speed, but with pretty terrible Statcast rates due primarily to a lousy launch angle. But the plus side is he’s not nearly as strikeout-prone as he was in his early career and has been hotter lately and earned his way back into mostly regular playing time, hitting .290/.375/.484 with three homers and 14 RBI in 62 AB the past three weeks.
Although his xBA of .227 is pretty painful to look at, and his xwOBA has remained almost exactly league average for his past 100 AB (impressive how little it’s moved, really), I’m still optimistic about the fact that he’s sporting the best strikeout rate of his career by a good margin at 17% K%, with a strong 9% BB% and a HardHit% of 37% that’s only a few ticks down from last year. While I don’t think he’ll keep hitting around .300 like he has the past few months, he’s a fairly safe bet to continue hitting around .260 with decent RBI totals and better OBP than is usually available on the wire.
Freddy Fermin (C, Kansas City Royals)
Fermin struggled for much of April and May but is showing that last year’s surprise splash was more than just a fluke, as he’s been hitting a studly .341/.385/.512 with two HRs and one SB in 41 AB over the past two weeks, and .400 in 25 AB this week. He’s essentially being the player we hoped Alejandro Kirk will be (though I still do like Kirk), now up to .304 with six HRs and one SB in 224 AB, making him a sneakily excellent option at the catcher position where batting average is hard to find. He’s still available in way too many 15-team AVG formats, and until last week was even available in my TGFBI league, which is a 15-team two-catcher league. Still, given that Yainer Diaz has rated as a top catcher despite lackluster power totals thanks to his batting average, I think that in 12-team formats he makes a sneaky batting average streamer at a position that lacks it so much.
15-team
Trevor Larnach (OF, Minnesota Twins)
I just can’t quit this guy. I mean, I did, multiple times. But I regret it every time, so I hope you don’t make the same mistake. It’s true that Wallner’s hot bat has gotten the spotlight and the platoon-happy Twins don’t have him playing full-time. But he still manages to give you at least a bit of fantasy goodness every week, and this week he’s hitting .333 with two SBs. The formerly strikeout-prone slugger has managed a much lower K rate this year and has a 6/8 BB/K in his last 33 AB the past few weeks, and his xwOBA has been in an upswing, with a .269 xBA and .489 xSLG a good deal better than his actual .248 AVG and .430 SLG%. It’s not enough playing time to make him 12-team relevant, but he’s an underrated safe option as a 4th or 5th outfielder in a 15-team format.
Austin Hays (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
He’s actually benefited by going to Philly, as he’s played more and hit .293 with one HR and two SBs in 41 AB in the past two weeks. Outside of Baltimore the relatively punchless outfielder can hit more pulled flyball homers and may steal more bases too, and sort of become a poor-man’s Brandon Marsh type.
Bligh Madris (1B, Detroit Tigers)
He may be the most low-profile .300 hitter in the majors right now. Sure it’s been just 42 PA and will regress, but I was surprised to see his .342 average was somewhat supported by Statcast with four barrels, a 52% HardHit%, and an excellent 44% LA SweetSpot%. BABIP will surely regress, but he does also offer some SB potential with 17 swipes in Triple-A (with 13 HRs and a .236 AVG, mind you), so I’d stream in 15-teamers and add in AL-only formats since he’ll likely continue to play against righties for now.
Alex Call (OF, Washington Nationals)
With Thomas clearing out his Lane, Alex is getting the call. He’s a sneaky good play in deep OBP leagues, as he has an elite 18% BB%, and I don’t think it’s such a fluke with a fantastic 15% Chase%. The fact that his career-best O-Swing% is complemented by a career-best Z-Swing% (as in most aggressive, at 64%), plus a career-best contact rate of 84%, plus a career-best Barrel% at 6% and two SBs this week with a 6/1 BB/K over his past 22 AB? I like him more now than when I started this blurb and consider him not only a deep league add but also viable in 15-team OBP.
Deep Leagues
Travis d’Arnaud (C, Atlanta Braves)
He’s still getting less playing time than battery-mate Sean Murphy, but he continues to be the better performer. He’s hit .273 with two HRs in 11 AB this week, which is a bigger power total than Murphy has had in the past three weeks, as he’s hit just .259 with one HR in 27 AB over that span. In a part-time role, d’Arnaud has continued to look better both on the surface and according to Statcast, with a .268 xBA and .487 xSLG compared to Murphy’s .221 xBA and .424 xSLG (though it’s been rising).
Jerar Encarnación (OF, San Francisco Giants)
A nice complement to the light-hitting Call, Jerar lights up the other half of the Statcast page (the big power one), with big exit velocities (112 mph MaxEV, three barrels in just 17 PA) despite scary contact rates (59%). Could be a poor man’s Heliot Ramos, and it seems the Giants are finally willing to play him semi-regularly to see if they too can catch lightning in a bottle, though he could just as easily be the next Rece Hinds. But hey, that was a nice little run if you were able to catch it.
Brooks Baldwin (2B, Chicago White Sox)
The second baseman fell flat on his face upon arrival to the majors, but he’s still playing regularly on a badly depleted White Sox lineup and has righted the ship hitting .316 with a homer and just four Ks in 19 AB (20 PA) this week. With two SBs as well in 60 AB, he could have value as an accumulator who does a little of everything in AL-only formats.
SELL
10-team
CJ Abrams (2B/SS, Washington Nationals)
Maybe I should call him Abram Stoker because he’s slowly sucked the life out of my fantasy teams. I should add the caveat that you probably can’t drop him if you badly need stolen bases, since he has continued to run despite also running into lots of outs. But the reality that many have missed is that actually, he’s if anything taken a step backwards this year, and his hot April hides this reality from many fantasy owners who can’t get the “breakout pick” out of their heads.
The reality is we have to let go of what happened earlier and realize that for the past two-odd months, he’s been quite bad. On the surface, he still looks okay with a .252 AVG, 17 HRs and 20 SBs, which is hard to replace. But he’s hit just .175 with four homers and six SBs since July 1st, causing the batting average to go from being an asset to a liability.
Now, I’m not saying to drop him, because you don’t have to… the whole reason I’m calling him a sell is because given his general hype and now hitting the 20 SB mark, he’ll still bring back a fair amount in a trade, in the leagues in which trades are still allowed (about half of mine). He’s been trending for a while in the wrong direction, as he’s been the second-biggest decliner in xwOBA, only behind Brandon Nimmo) over his past 100 PA (.241 xwOBA, down from .400). Compared to last year, he has fewer barrels, hits the ball less hard, makes less contact, and most importantly, has 10 caught stealing with his 20 SBs, a lousy 67% SB success rate that even the Nationals (who even let Jesse Winker rack up double-digit SBs) can’t stomach for long.
Sure, he’s homered twice this week and has the raw talent to turn it around. But in 10-team formats, this late in the season, I do think you need to consider trends and your categories more strongly and I’d much rather have Luis Garcia Jr. in many scenarios, and think this might be your last chance to sell him while he’s still being overrated… once the batting average slides below .250, people might realize.
Brice Turang (2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers)
It’s probably not that surprising that the good times with batting average didn’t last forever, and maybe I’m out of my gourd not calling him a deeper league drop given that he was recently cut in my fairly deep 15-team TGFBI league (although he was one of the top bids). He’s still running which continues to be valuable, but he’s turned back into mostly a one-tool player, and with only three SBs in the past three weeks, one wonders if he’ll lose more reps and become more of a pinch-runner type if he can’t turn his plummeting batting average around.
Luis Arraez (2B, San Diego Padres)
I will always love how extreme Arraez is, with almost all of his Statcast sliders being either 1 or 100 and little in between. And somehow he’s become even more extreme, with the worst Barrel% of his career, with his 1.3% Barrel/PA less than half of his 3.1% mark last year, though also with a career-low 5% K%. Still, as a slow baserunner with only three HRs and four SBs, the .305 AVG just doesn’t do enough to compensate for how little he produces in HRs and RBI (29), and his 56 R isn’t all that great either.
12-team
Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York Mets)
He must be flammable because pitchers have been throwing gas by him and now he’s getting Nimmolated. I’ll admit, that partially because I loved him so much early on, combined with my admitted American League bias, I hadn’t noticed just how bad he’s been, but it’s been impressively terrible.
Over the past three weeks, he’s hit just .169/.295/.200 with no homers, six R, three RBI and three SB in 65 AB. This decline has been happening for a while under our noses, as he’s been the only player with a bigger drop than Abrams in xwOBA over his past 100 AB with a .233 Rolling 100PA xwOBA, and his drop of .178 eclipses the rest, with the bottom five ranging from a -.138 to a -.159. But unlike Abrams, Nimmo’s decline is even more dragged out, with a -.078 xwOBA over his past 250 PA (.312 Rolling 250PA xwOBA) making him the third-biggest xwOBA loser over that span as well.
I’d guess he’s trying to play through an injury or something, as he has been known as injury-prone throughout his career, and with the injury to Starling Marte the team is likely depending on him to prevent falling into the old LOL Mets narrative. Still, a minor leaguer would likely be an upgrade from this shell of a major leaguer, and there’s no real reason to wait. Unlike Abrams, I’d consider a straight drop even in 12-team formats, since I doubt anyone in shallow leagues is buying at this point, though I guess it doesn’t hurt to try. Until Nimmo finds himself, I’d just keep swimming to the waiver pool in all 10-team leagues as well as 12-team AVG leagues.
Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B, San Diego Padres)
He’s hit just .200/.386/.240 with no homers and two SBs (two CS) over 50 AB the past three weeks, and although he has 10 HRs and 20 SBs in 373 PA this season, the .223 AVG does massive damage in AVG leagues. Given regression was expected given his terrible Statcast rates, he was drafted way too high, and should only be rostered in leagues where you’re willing to sell out for SBs.
15-team
Sean Murphy (C, Atlanta Braves)
Sure, he’s been getting slightly better as time has gone on, but it’s been over a month now and he still doesn’t seem to resemble his 2023 self in any way at the plate. Given that d’Arnaud has continued to hit as well or better in his playing time and the injury concerns of both, Murphy will likely remain in a timeshare. Even if he gets two-thirds of the reps as it’s been the past week or two, I’ve been rolling out Alejandro Kirk and Austin Wells ahead of him, and you probably missed your chance to sell in a trade (I did manage to flip him and a few other guys for Cal Raleigh a few weeks back).
Will Benson (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
Sure, the 12 HRs and 13 SBs (six CS) are nice, but the .194 AVG outweighs any benefit from it, and it’s only getting worse. While his .211 rolling xwOBA over his past 100 PA is only the seventh-largest decliner (which of course is still bad), that’s only because the .334 rolling 100PA xwOBA was also not good. The .211 xwOBA itself was the worst of the Top 20 xwOBA decliners. The only one worse in the top 25 was backup catcher/journeyman Brian Serven. That should help you realize it’s past time to let him go, and hopefully, the Reds realize this too and give the similarly flawed yet more toolsy Joey Wiemer a chance.
LaMonte Wade Jr., Jr. (1B/OF, San Francisco Giants)
He remains in a platoon, and unlike earlier in the year, just hasn’t done much damage in his playing time outside of a rather empty batting average, hitting .290 with four HRs in 230 AB. I’d probably take my chances on a Bligh Madris-type over him at this point.
Deep Leagues
Mauricio Dubón (2B/OF, Houston Astros)
Given his 2023 success and aggressive contact-oriented profile, I expected better from him, but he’s hit a terrible .103/.103/.276 with just one HR and no SBs in 29 AB over the past three weeks, and now down to .259 with just four HRs and two SBs in 270 AB, you’re likely better off with any dart throw waiver guy.
Gavin Sheets (OF/1B, Chicago White Sox)
He’s had a lot of opportunities this year and started strong but has just collapsed like most of the team, with a terrible .231 xwOBA over his past 100 PA and hitting .130 with no homers, two R, one RBI and a 0/16 BB/K over 46 AB over the past few weeks. Why the team hasn’t just called up a random minor leaguer over him befuddles me, since I think my cat could probably outhit him at this point. In all leagues, throw out the soiled Sheets with the White Socks.