Buy & Sell 9/12 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

Welcome back to Buy & Sell, and this week’s theme is: Pretend it’s April. Why? Because the total stats don’t matter anymore, we have three weeks to go, and we need to get back to overreaction to small samples. If you saw the past 3 weeks of how C.J. Abrams has performed, do you really think he’d still be 98% rostered on Yahoo? Past 3 months, in his case. If you want someone to put you over the edge, it’s time to tone down the analysis and keep it simple. So let’s get irrational and get onto the list!

 

BUY

10-team

Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays)

 

Trying to find a good keystone-eligible player during the home stretch really has me at ‘witz end. Which is good. He’s battled back from a slump and is also slugging like the elite options with a .339 AVG and 6 homers over 62 AB in the past 3 weeks, with a blue-hot .450 with 3 homers this past week. You can make a fair argument that he’s been more valuable than Paul Goldschmidt this year even without the stolen bases now that he’s adding pop to his high-average profile (.274 on the year). He’s a must-add in all formats for his bat combined with his rare type of dual-eligibility.

 

Taylor Ward (OF, Los Angeles Angels)

 

He’s here to Ward off bad vibes. I’m glad to have picked up Ward in August, after regretting trading him away a few years ago and moaning over his sudden September surge. Some guys just like to see the light at the end of the tunnel, I guess. He’s hit .329 with 6 homers in the past 3 weeks while playing every day (73 AB), but like Horwitz he’s done the most damage this week with a .385 AVG and 3 homers. Of course, it’s with just 4 RBI, because Angels. This week in particular, he’s been a godsend in OBP formats with 5 walks to 7 strikeouts in 26 AB, which is surprising given he only had 1 walk the previous 2 weeks combined. Ward is streaky but you need to ride hot streaks like these. Pick up in all 10-teamers.

 

Gleyber Torres (2B, New York Yankees)

 

The stench of the disappointment has left him ignored in many formats, but he’s been hitting for a high average for a few months now, hitting .324/.418/.442 with 2 homers in the past 3 weeks, and .375.485/.417 this week, making him worth adding in 12-teamers, especially in OBP formats.

 

12-team

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, St. Louis Cardinals)

 

Just because he’s in decline it doesn’t mean he can’t help sometimes. He’s hit a massive .426/.449/.702 with two dingers and a nabbed bag in the past 2 weeks, which is enough all-around production for me to buy back in on all 12-team formats and a possible 10-team OBP stream with the current 1B pool.

 

Jasson Dominguez (OF, New York Yankees)

 

Just because he dominated in his 2023 debut, banking on that to happen again was always a bit Pollyanna given his long layoff. Still, the Yankees say they’ll play him (finally!) so despite his lousy start, or maybe because of it, he may still be available and if he is, hope to catch lightning in a bottle if you need a miracle to gain big ground in little time.

 

Joey Bart (C, Pittsburgh Pirates)

 

Bart is back, baby! Bart is one of the guys I gave up on too soon after his first slump, and all he’s done since then is impress me more and more. His rolling xwOBA has continued to rise and rise over his past 100 PA, and it’s easy to overlook how impressive it is that he’s hit .271 with 13 homers, given that he’s managed that in only 207 AB (232 PA). I’m expecting him to hit the ground running and I’d gladly roster him in 12-team formats and an easy choice over the likes of Alejandro Kirk, Ryan Jeffers, and yes even Will Smith.

 

15-team

Luke Raley (1B/OF, Seattle Mariners)

You must be flying like Tony Hawk if you’ve been riding the Rales. Although this year is still shaping up to be a step down from last year’s breakout, he’s been steadily climbing with a .273 AVG and 3 homers over the past 3 weeks, with a .300 mark this week and regular playing time. I’d expect him to pop a few homers and perhaps not hurt you in batting average while chipping in a few steals. Essentially he’s the poor man’s outfield-eligible Paul Goldschmidt. Yeah, I said it.

 

Pavin Smith (1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)

 

Dance Pavin Dance. For those who don’t recognize references to bands from Warped Tour 2011, Pavin is also suddenly appearing out of nowhere and rocking four homers in just nice at-bats this week and a stolen base, good for a 1.778 OPS! On the year he’s hitting a more level .270 with 7 homers in 89 AB, but I think maybe this is legit. His bat speed is actually above average with an elite squared-up percentage,  with elite chase and whiff rates adding a solid floor. Playing time is the big question as this could be a cherry-picked sample, but I’m hoping he gets more playing time after his trifecta against the Astros and could be a September hero. Time to go find that Warped Tour CD… it was a real one.

 

Andrew McCutchen (DH/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)

 

The main reason I have found myself unable to recommend him most of the year is the DH limitation, but for games with five games in-season eligibility, he has crossed that threshold, and he’s been steady and quite useful still, hitting .296 with three homers in 27 AB since his return with a .240/.335/.425 line with 19 HR and 3 SB on the year, making him a fine add in 15-team OBP formats or streamer in average leagues.

Deep Leagues

Otto Lopez (2B/3B/SS, Miami Marlins)

 

If you want a batting average with some SBs, he’s an Ottomatic start. While my optimism about his early results in solid bat speed regressed, he has continued to rack up hits with a .324 AVG a homer, and 3 SB in 74 AB, usually from the leadoff spot. I do have some concerns he’ll keep it up despite hitting .379 with week as he also has seven Ks, but with the multi-position juice, he’s worth holding. He’s somewhere in between being beyond an NL-only play but at best a category streamer in 15-team AVG leagues.

 

Jacob Wilson (SS, Oakland Athletics)

 

He’s likely to be widely available now, as he quickly fell into a bad rut after returning from his IL stint, and there’s not much to get excited about in terms of Statcast or his performance thus far. That said, he does make contact at a high rate, and I think he can still be a poor man’s Arraez with his elite low whiff rate. Also, a solid buy-low in keeper leagues thinking about the park upgrade.

 

Sam Hilliard (OF, Colorado Rockies)

 

He’s more of a matchups and DFS play, but despite the disappointing year, he still has big numbers on a per-AB basis, hitting .273 with 2 HR this week in 11 AB. That brings him up to a season line of .250 with seven HR and four SB in 100 AB, and over a full-500 AB season that’s… never gonna happen.

 

SELL

10-team

Steven Kwan (OF, Cleveland Guardians)

 

The amount of damage he’s done to teams blindly starting him the past few months is hard to Kwantify. Although the season stats still look good thanks to his impossibly great start, and a .288 AVG is still impressive in this hitting environment with the 13 HR and 12 SB, it’s as frontloaded as a monster truck unicycle with little baby training wheels. Wait, is that just a Big Wheel trike?

Anyway, he’s hit just .137/.284/.164 with no homers and 3 SB in 74 AB the past 3 weeks. It’s not just bad luck either, as he has had a fairly big gap between his poor .300 rolling xwOBA in his past 250 AB to his previous .352 mark, and that was down to .280 in his past 100 PA. He’s unlikely to be able to turn it around and be a batting average asset in such a small remaining time frame, so then you realize that without significant power or speed, you probably should replace him in 10-team AVG formats, and perhaps even in OBP formats depending on your standings.

 

Starling Marte (OF, New York Mets)

 

I was perhaps too excited to anticipate his return because a star is to starling what a zerg rush is to a single zergling. SAT analogies were fun, right? He’s getting the aging and fragile vet treatment, sitting out a game a series and often getting subbed in, making him not worth the trouble in 10-teamers and probably also not 12-team OBP (I did cut him in a 15-team championship league but I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that yet for saner people than me).

 

12-team

Will Smith (C, Los Angeles Dodgers)

 

I may have ruffled feathers the first time I said cut him in 10-teamers weeks ago, now I’m going for the whole chicken on a rotisserie. Heh, insert roto league joke. Smith has hit just .176 with no homers this week, and just .224/.291/.327 with 1 HR in 49 AB over the past 3 weeks. Given that the weak-hitting but defensive wizard Austin Barnes is batting .265, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play more down the home stretch to “rest up” Smith for the playoffs, making the chances of a rebound even less.

 

Triston Casas (1B, Boston Red Sox)

 

Maybe he’s a 2021 meme stock, because his quick surge and subsequent fall is similar to Koss’s. Yeah I know that pun’s a stretch, but so is it a stretch to call him a fantasy option after hitting just .118 with no homers in the 27 AB the past two weeks. I’m guessing the apparent stabbing feeling in his ribs is making him not want to swing so hard, and I personally dumped him hoping to get Raley or Cronenworth, and settled on Seth Brown. Perhaps I went too far with that last one, but I don’t regret it yet.

 

15-team

Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles)

Oh how I’m O’yearning for him to return to his April glory days. He’s the guy who I gave too many chances to, because throughout the year, and even now, Statcast said he deserved far better than his actual production, and the low K rate gave plenty of room for dreaming. Pitcher List also gave him a strong .273 xAVG and .354 xwOBA. That’s the oasis, but the actual performance has deserted him.

He’s hit just .164/.220/.273 with one homer in 55 AB the past 3 weeks, and just .100 the past week. The K/BB is a solid 3/3, but perhaps he’s just hitting it right to the fielder’s gloves, because he’s had virtually no power and a league-average batting average in the 2nd half, offering basically nothing useful for fantasy leagues.

 

Spencer Torkelson (1B, Detroit Tigers)

 

Sometimes you need to know when a train you jumped on is heading in the wrong direction. After a big first week led me to recommend him at the end of August, he quickly reverted to his old terrible ways, striking out 21 times in 44 AB (47 PA), and hitting just .095 with 0 HR and 0 RBI this week. For this year at least, stick a tork in him.

 

Deep Leagues

Jhonkensy Noel (1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)

The pop is elite, but unfortunately, his playing time was a bubble and now it’s been popped. He’s hit just .185 with 1 HR in 27 AB the past 2 weeks, and this week he’s only received nine AB total. The fact that those nine AB were spread across five games, and he didn’t get a single hit probably doesn’t help, and Manzardo’s arrival just squeezed him even more. Without a bench and daily lineups, he’s unwise to roster in 15-team formats and perhaps even AL-only formats until something changes.

 

Alex Verdugo (OF, New York Yankees)

 

Funny enough that he seems to finally be turning things around a bit when the Yankees finally decided to move on. It’s hard to blame them though, given he had the whole season and Yankee fans were close to ripping the management to pinstriped shreds for keeping The Martian away. He might still be a part-timer, especially since Dominguez has had a rocky re-entry, but there’s not enough upside to make it worth it to roster an accumulator who can’t accumulate.

 

Luis Campusano (C, San Diego Padres)

 

He’s still being rostered in a surprising amount of leagues, which is a good indicator that those are teams that have already long since stopped paying attention and switched to football.