Welcome back to the FINAL Buy & Sell of the year, where the theme is… Wow, you’re really still here? That must mean you’ve had a good year! Congrats and cheers! As it turns out, trying to write about baseball with a newborn basically glued to my left arm did manage to slow me down, but not stop me! So yes, I will be delirious, but that’s usually good for the jokes, anyway. So let’s say it with me one more time… On to the list!
BUY
Ty France (1B, San Diego Padres)
There’s never been a better time to be a Francophile. Though I hope that doesn’t include former fans of Maikel Franco. I shouted him out as an add earlier this summer after seeing real opportunity, calling him Barrelspierre as the leader of the Launch Revolution. He’s now cleared 20 homers for only the 2nd time in his career, and one more will be his career high. And he’s doing it while hitting .294/.360/.509, making this the 7-year vet’s best season from a rate stat perspective. And it just keeps looking better.
But his bat has been really scorching in September, hitting .324/.390/.514. Whether you need average or power, he’s a likely bet to provide both, and still has been ignored in far too many leagues just because of the recent history, and that’s why people playing too conservatively rarely win. Not to mention, for those of you who play in niche leagues with a category for HBP (or at least where they count towards total bases), he remains one of the most plunked batters in the majors, which is why my alternate nickname for Ty is “Beanie Baby”. Add in all formats.
Nolan Arenado (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Hello Mudda. Hello Fadda. Here I am in, Camp Arenada. Hey, I figure he’s old enough that maybe he still appreciates Allen Sherman. (Still younger than me, though). The 35-year-old vet has proven doubters of his late-career renaissance quite wrong, blasting his way out of the power duldrums with an excellent 25 dingers and a less-excellent but still useful .241 AVG. And as for the average, it’s rising like a phoenix from the ashes after hitting .421 with 3 homers in 19 AB this week. It’s a long, tiring season, but there’s certainly Nolanguishing here.
Given the notable loss of depth options at the hot corner (so long Casey Schmitt, Chapman, Maikel, and another surprise name coming up on my Sells), I think I have him above the next name here, at least provided you play in 3-OF leagues and not 5-OF. Because unlike the name after him, Statcast believes that while they’ve never understood him and always underrated him, that they can’t deny he’s so Arizona hot right now.
Honorable Mention: Travis Bazzana (2B, Cleveland Guardians) – The former first overall pick made me feel like a Travis Bozo-na after advising to cut him, hitting .395 with 5 homers over the last 2 weeks. Ouch. So I need to repent by announcing it in any shallow leagues he’s still available. My B.
12-team
Cole Carrigg (OF, Colorado Rockies)
If you have him, you may feel the system has been Carrigged in your favor. I’ll admit regret in dropping him in one league in which I had bid big bucks to get him months ago, but despite his flawed plate approach, he’s finally tapped into his power stroke, just going 4-for-5 with 2 homers to bring his recent line to a nuclear .340 with 4 homers and 1 SB in 50 ABs. I should note just as a wet blanket that it was likely a notable factor that this past week was the first all season in which Colorado had a full homestand in Coors, so to some degree you’re chasing numbers from a scenario that won’t recur. And he is also notably outperforming the expected stats… and he’s not running as much as we hoped, with no SB attempts this week and 2 (1 CS) over the past 3 weeks. That’s why I’m keeping him as a 12-team add but not 10-teamer. Then again, maybe I’m being too smartypants for my own good, and just say “Carrigg hit homers now. Homers now we need. That kind of caveman brain can actually benefit you in the final weeks. UPDATE: I apologize to any Neanderthals offended by my offensive comment.
Adael Amador (2B, Colorado Rockies)
His name is Spanish for “lover”, and I can’t help falling for him either… No homer. I kid, as it’s true that his raw power is quite weak, with a lousy 83 mph exit velocity reminiscent of a slap hitter. But still, he’s in Colorado, and he knows how to launch when it matters, with an above average PullAir% despite a poor overall launch angle. Basically, he’s in the perfect park for a player like him to have an extreme boost in value… especially because he’s somewhere between lite versions of Nolan Arenado and Luis Arraez.
See, his 14% is solid but not spectacular for a hitter with his terrible batted ball quality (22% HardHit%, .191 xBA, .302 xSLG), but more than half of his strikeouts were in his first 10 AB. Yes, in those, he had a 50% K%, and since, he’s had an excellent 3/3 BB/K ration in 45 AB over the past 3 weeks, a K% of 7%. I’d assume the truth lies somewhere in between, but I’m leaning on the more recent and larger 7% more than the debut 50%. Good things generally happen to hitters who can crush consistent contact in Colorado, comrade.
Honorable Mention: Josue De Paula, (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers) – Don’t let the .143 AVG fool you. He’s obviously super-talented, and his 5/2 BB/K and 10% K% overall with strong batted ball quality all suggest he’s been seeing the ball well and could move mini mountains (or at least micro molehills) over the final week.
Honorable Mention: Victor Mesa, Jr. (OF, Tampa Bay Rays) – I understand it might seem like sacrilege to have him right alongside one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but the 25-year-old was a former top prospect of note himself, and has been absolutely on fire, hitting .500 with 3 HR and 1 SB this week to bring him to a .257 AVG and 13 HR with 9 SB in just 202. He’s been a real second half sleeper.
15-team
Connor Norby (2B/3B, Colorado Rockies)
Norb has been shredding with the wood so much, he must be an Angry Beaver. Man, does ANYONE but me remember that show? Nope. Anyway, over the past several week he’s posted tasty Lickety Splits with a .295/.377/.459 line in 61 AB over the past 3 weeks, and a frenetic .400/.455/.750 over the past week, aided by the Coors superstand. While I’ve historically been a skeptic on him, it seems he’s getting his footing at the right time and his position eligibility can be dam useful.
On the season, he’s now hitting .234 with 7 HR and 8 SB, which is certainly nothing to write home about, but his rolling xwOBA has been on a substantial upswing (his rolling 100 PA xwOBA is .355, a jump of .076), and that’s what matters most right now. And with a touch of speed and positional multi-eligibility of 1B/2B/3B, you might have to accept that mediocrity is more acceptable with role versatility, kind of like Eddie Murphy in that weird movie where he played half the family. In other words, in 15-teamers, it’s time to Norb it. …No, I’m not sorry.
Honorable Mention: Samad Taylor (OF, San Diego Padres) – He went from a hot ticket waiver wire item to a forgotten man once he got hurt, but he’s picked up right where he left off, hitting an excellent .312 with 3 SB as he does his best Diet Jake McCarthy impression.
Sean Murphy (C, Atlanta Braves)
He’s back, he’s somehow finally healthy (for now), and even though he’s not quite full-time, he’s playing enough, he at least has deep league upside, in a way. His .191 AVG on the season is bad and lines up with the sub-Mendoza past two years, but it does look like he’s maybe finally healthy despite the poor .143 AVG since his return. Despite that, he actually has posted a quite strong .343 xwOBA, and has a healthy enough playing time and team situation (since it seems they still believe in him), that I’d lean on at least a sliver of the above-average pre-injury bat being there somewhere.
Honorable Mention: Tommy Pham (OF, Chicago White Sox) – I can’t blame anyone for assuming a September injury spelled the end of Tommy Pham’s comeback tour, but the tenacious loudmouth is back for one last crack at it, and just kind of seems like the kind of veteran rando who might be deep league clutch in what may be his very short swan song. More like a Swan Jingle.
SELL
Munetaka Murakami (1B/3B, Chicago White Sox)
Lately, while it seemed unlikely, he went from flying high to crashing into your chances like a Munetaka Murecomet. He’s rocking 31 homers, and that means bupkis if you’re in a race in which batting average matters at all… or maybe the other stats too. A hitter with his extreme high-strikeout approach always seemed to be an inexplicable boom waiting to bust, and since August 28th, he’s hit a horrific 7-for-56 with 29 strikeouts. Let me repeat. TWENTY-NINE STRIKEOUTS in FIFTY-SIX AB. That’s… beyond 50%. YIKES.
It feels insane to cut someone who earlier seemed like a lock to hit 50 homers, if not challenge for Judge’s record. I know. But also consider just how much of a collapse it’s been that his current line looks basically the same as Colson Montgomery now. You don’t have to go down with the ship.
Dishonorable Mention: Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox) – This one may seem unfairly harsh, as for a while he was looking like a true near-star breakout, but he’s had quite the big collapse, hitting a disappointing .311 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, a drop of .124, though note that it comes after a scorching .435 mark, which is why this is 10-team only.
12-team
Ian Happ (OF, Chicago Cubs)
Okay, I’ll admit this is a weird one. Because, well, you could make a buy argument fairly well, given he had a 5/0 BB/K this week with a .250 AVG in 12 AB, and probably deserved better. But here’s the rub. He’s still 83% Rostered. Given his performance since July, in which he’s contributed almost nothing and basically became a useless platoon bat, he is still massively over-rostered. much like a stock that finally turned around bad fundamentals but still has a grossly overinflated valuation. Sometimes a player earning a reputation for being “set it and forget it” can be dangerous when he’s playing like he’s on a sedative… forget it.
Dishonorable Mention: Colson Montgomery (SS, Chicago White Sox) – Since mid-August or so, Montgomery and Murekami have been Brothers in Harms. Montgomery has still managed to hit about 2 dingers a week lately, but the .071 AVG over the past 2 weeks and the much longer stretch of hitting in the mid-.150s is a sign of a truly broken approach… especially the 211 Ks in 536 ABs.
15-team
Mickey Moniak (OF, Colorado Rockies)
He’s making me feel like a whiny large longhaired domesticated cattle, because he’s made me quite the Moan-y yak. Hey, last article of the year, no holds barred on my worst puns. Most assumed the crux of the “Sell Mickey” argument is that he’d be dealt out of Colorado at the deadline, and that didn’t happen. Unfortunately, even his friendly confines can’t hide the fact that his bat has seriously degraded this year.
While he’s somehow managed to still hit .241 with 22 homers, most of it was inflated by an early-season surge before things started really backsliding, though the batted ball quality (especially barrel% and K%) were red flags all along. But his .214 xBA and .392 xSLG with a 27% K% show that he’s returned to being a poor hitter who only has gotten by thanks to the park, which is why he returned to Platoonsville. Given that he’s hit just .179 with 1 HR and 1 SB over the past 3 weeks, I’d definitely also strongly consider cutting him in 15-team OBP… and if someone like De Paula, Mesa Jr or even Samad Taylor is on your wire, I’d cut him in 15-teamers too. You know what? Let’s put him on 15-team sells, go bold or go home.
Dishonorable Mention: J.J. Bleday (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – In June he was J.J. the Jet Plane, but a lack of air traffic controllers got him lost in the Bermuda Triangle, His batting average has cratered all the way down to .213, similar to last year’s numbers, are getting filed under “He is who we thought he was”. After holding you too long, you really J.J. Bled us dry.
