Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is, wow it’s already the playoffs! Knowing that you may only have a week for your hitters to perform for you (at least in H2H) means you really have to pay more attention to streaks and throw some of the good ol’ analytics out the window. Even in roto, players can outrun expected stats fairly easily over the course of a month, so it’s time to make some strange buys and difficult cuts you never dreamed of making back in May. So buckle up and let’s get on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Lawrence Butler (OF, Oakland Athletics)
If he’s still somehow available, you should add him right now and there’s no ifs, ands, or Butlers. Mr. Lawrence “Don’t You Dare Call Me Larry” has simply obliterated opposing pitching after what had seemed to be a regression to the mean, as the mean green machine is now hitting .389/.411/.870 with 7 HR, 14 R, 13 RBI and 3 SB in 54 AB over the past two weeks, raising his season average to .265 with 20 HR and 13 SB, essentially becoming the player you thought you were getting if you drafted Adolis García.
The thing that has me most bullish on this run though is the strikeouts, or rather the lack thereof. Whereas he was striking out over 30% before this sudden midsummer transformation, he only has two strikeouts over the past two weeks (56 PA). That is less than FOUR percent. Talk about locked-in. Given his elite quality of contact metrics, he could conceivably be a top-10 outfielder going forward if he can even keep half of that contact ability. In any case, he’s an all-leagues stud.
Josh Naylor (1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)
It’s entirely possible that given he’s hitting just .245 on the year, you thought I’d write him up as a sell. But, well, that would be silly. I mean, he was likely cut by impatient managers in some shallower formats before his red-hot week, as he was in a long swoon following his excellent first half, with his batting average down to .235 before he smacked 11 hits in his last 24 AB this week. Although even with that streak, he’s still hitting .225 over the past three weeks, the total package of 30+ homer power, a handful of stolen bases with lots of runs produced (he just hit 100 RBI) makes him worth holding even in the shallowest of leagues holding despite the batting average.
And as for the average, I think it’s bound to positively regress given that he’s rocking a nifty 8/6 BB/K over his last 71 AB (79 PA). If only someday he could lift the ball more than his weak 46% groundball rate, he could have a monster season (I’m talking like , but he does so many other things well that he’s a stud anyway.
Eugenio Suárez (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Someone must have rubbed him the right way because he’s granted fantasy rosters their wish like a Eugenie. He gets a lot less press than most of the guys on this list, but he’s turned around his season and his career trajectory in an almost unheard-of fashion, going from a likely DFA candidate to one of the league’s best hitters. He’s kept the good the good times rolling, hitting .306 with six homers and 22 RBI in 72 AB over the past three weeks, with three of those homers coming just this past week. Given the lack of upper-end talent at 3B this year and his incredible run, let him Suarez-urect your team in all leagues.
12-team
Junior Caminero (3B, Tampa Bay Rays)
His last name is Spanish for “walker”, and while he does know how to take a walk, I feel like that kind of sells short the rest of his game. He’s been one of the few as-advertised prospects thus far, hitting an exemplary .275/.359/.478 with three homers and two SBs in 69 AB (78 PA). Now it’s true Statcast is skeptical, perhaps due to his worm-burning ways with his average launch angle of three degrees, but we’ve at least seen he can hit the ball very hard (116 mph MaxEV) and can do it consistently (53% HardHit%) while be able to actually also make passable contact. Remember he’s just 21 so you just need to trust the talent here, and should be added in all 12-team formats and a viable option in 10-team redrafts as well
Paul DeJong (3B/SS, Kansas City Royals)
If you take out the runs produced, you could make a compelling argument that this year Paul DeJong has outperformed Marcus Semien, and that’s a bet that could’ve made you so much money if you were crazy enough to make it. DeJong’s batting average is his weakness but has been more bearable at .234, but his 24 home runs combined with his especially useful dual-eligibility make him an underrated power stream play in 12-team formats, especially now with possibly more playing time security with Italian Breakfast out.
Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals)
You could take just about everything I said about Junior Caminero and apply it also to Crews. While he’s a year or two older, he also has a 53% HardHit%, and if he can lift the ball some more, he can be a five-tool fantasy stud with his impressive speed and hit tool. Of course, it’s a small sample and like the team’s top prospect James Wood, it could take a few speedbumps before he really gets his footing.
15-team
José Tena (3B, Washington Nationals)
As far as rating my deep league buys from two weeks ago, he rates as a Tena out of Ten. I added him across almost all of my deep formats after seeing him effortlessly hit .318/.348/.439 with two HR and one SB in 66 AB (69 PA), which is arguably as good or even better than the small samples of the more heralded rookies on this list above him. He’s kept the good times rolling with a .368 AVG this week. Statcast actually thinks his batting average has been completely deserved but that the power has actually been quite unlucky, with a massive .604 xSLG. Of course, the sample is still tiny, but his combination of hard contact with a low whiff rate is seriously making me question my sanity as I ponder cutting the slumping CJ Abrams for him.
Lane Thomas (OF, Cleveland Guardians)
He’s obviously not the player he appeared to be last year, but he’s also not the one he looked like a few weeks ago, which was a small-side platoon bat. At least I think. I’m buying back in on Thomas after finally waking up and hitting .438 this week with a homer and two stolen bases since I think that should buy him enough playing time to be valuable again. Of course, I’m hoping that he’ll more than just be a regular again… I’m hoping he’s just a guy who really likes September.
Addison Barger (2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
He’s barging his way onto fantasy rosters after having the hottest few weeks of his career. He’s hitting .289 with three homers in 45 AB over the past two weeks, finally turning heads after struggling badly in multiple prior stints this year. It’s a good sign that he only struck out six times in that spam (48 PA), giving me hope he can be a more reliable source of power and at least be passable in batting average if not an asset. It’s worth noting his .209 season batting average is well below his .247 xBA, and his xwOBA over his past 50 PA is a superb .436, making him the MLB’s sixth-biggest xwOBA riser over that span.
UPDATE: Dealing with an injury.
Deep Leagues
Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins)
I still believe that Stowers powers the Marlins’ future, and then they’ll buy him flowers. While the move to Miami lowers (DOESN’T RHYME!) his run production potential, the most important thing is that he’s playing, and he’s having himself a week, hitting .381 with two homers. The strikeouts are still a major concern with his 35% K%, but he’s a great power streamer in NL-only formats down the homestretch.
Jonny DeLuca (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
His Statcast page is so blue it can give you hypothermia, but he has stolen 14 bases in just 266 AB, and he’s played much better lately. Over the past two weeks, he’s hitting .324/.375/.514 with two HR and three SB (two CS) over 37 AB, which is near-every day playing time in Tampa. His top comp according to Statcast is Connor Wong, and in a small sample, he certainly does enough of everything to help a bit in different categories, even if he’s not a catcher.
SELL
10-team
Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, San Francisco Giants)
Having him on my roster is really giving me Fitz. I mean, how many other players qualify at infield and outfield and are on a full-season pace of 35 homers and 35 stolen bases? Probably not anyone on your wire. But then you need to remember Lane Thomas from last year and ask yourself, “But can you really trust what already happened to continue?”. While I do trust the speed, the power is far more suspect, as his Statcast quality of contact metrics are actually all below average, with the only exception being launch angle sweet spot.
It seems the regression dragons were already summoned as he’s hit a pathetic .209/.277/.209 with no extra-base hits and just two stolen bases (one CS) over 43 AB the past two weeks. I typically don’t overreact to a cold stretch (okay that’s a bold-faced lie), but I think that given that both the scouting and the stats can’t explain his success and it’s fading fast, with a weak .210 xwOBA over his last 50 PA. I’d much rather bet on a bounce-back from a player whose underlying metrics also walk the walk.
Jurickson Profar (OF, San Diego Padres)
My call to ignore hit hot start and “sell high” on him early this year has made me need to take lots of ibuprofar. But as electric as he had been, it’s always been expected to regress, and it’s continued as over the past three weeks he’s hit just .182/.309/.303 with two HR and three SB in 66 AB. Over the past week, it’s an even more concerning .063/.303/.063 in 16 AB (23 PA), though it’s a rather comical one single and seven walks. But if you’re in a batting average league, his excellent OBP doesn’t make up for the fact that he’s been an all-around worse hitter in the second half, and I don’t see that magically changing with just a few weeks left in the season. I’ll say that under oath, and let the fantasy community be the judge and Jurick… no executions though, please.
12-team
Adolis García (OF, Texas Rangers)
Maybe he’s bored because his bat is acting Adolistless. I’ll admit I got suckered into starting him this week in a five-OF 15-teamer just because of a seven-game week and some juicy matchups against Los Angeles, but with how he’s been performing lately, even that might not help. After a decent start, he’s sported a poor sub-.300 xwOBA over his last 200 PA, and over his past 50 PA it’s just a rather grody .223 xwOBA. While he did have one hot week in August, he hasn’t hit a single homer in the past two weeks, with 0 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB and a .189 AVG over that span, which can be enough to kill a playoff run.
While the overall line of 21 homers and 11 SB may seem hard to part with, he’s surpassed over 500 AB on the season, and many other hitters are producing similar/better power & speed numbers on a rate stat basis without killing your average. I should also note that Adolis has been especially deleterious in OBP, as his 38 walks this season is a far cry from his 65 in 2023. It wouldn’t surprise me if he were dealing with a hidden injury like his teammate Seager, but this could also just be the regression most of the fantasy community had been expecting from him for a few years now. I’d cut in 12-team formats and 15-team OBP… I also may cut him in my 15-team batting average league (I’m in the Top 10 in the TGFBI overall) but need someone to hold my hand while I do it.
CJ Abrams (2B/SS, Washington Nationals)
I still don’t think we talk enough about how harmful Abrams has been for fantasy teams blindly running him out there because they remember his April and see his 97% Own rate (in Yahoo, anyway). But although he has had some spurts of increased aggressiveness on the basepaths with seven bags in the past three weeks, his bat makes it so that he’s not much different than Brice Turang… LAST YEAR’S Brice Turang. Over that three week span, he’s hit just .159/.232/.222 with one HR in 63 AB, and over the past two weeks he’s hit .171 with no homers, and stolen as many bases (three) as he has Runs and RBI combined (three). It’s time to cut bait in 12-team leagues, and if you don’t need his SB he’s even a viable drop in 15-team OBP.
15-team
Francisco Alvarez (C, New York Mets)
I’ll admit that I didn’t try to stand in the way of the hype machine upon his electric return to the bigs earlier this summer, but I was at least more conservative than those calling him an all-leagues must-add, noting that despite his young age and clearly elite potential, his fantastic run wasn’t at all backed by Statcast, which actually suggested that he had been below-average in terms of expected stats. Well, I hope the algorithm is happy, because look how they massacred my boy. He’s hit an impressively awful .125/.125/.125 in 32 PA over the past two weeks, which translates to four singles, no walks, and that’s it. Even Mr. Met can’t smile at that.
Unlike last year, the power isn’t even there with just six taters in 252 AB, and my first thought is that perhaps the surgery for the torn ligament in his thumb is sapping his power and performance overall. I could probably name about 20 catchers I’d rather roll with heading into the homestretch, and some of those are part-timers, something which he could become soon.
Jonah Bride (2B/3B, Miami Marlins)
He was a popular 15-team pickup a few weeks ago, but the expected stats and his history of lacking power suggested it was always a flash in the pan. While he’s still getting trotted out there regularly and at least making contact and drawing walks, he’s hitting just .200/.283/.275 across 40 AB over the past two weeks. He simply doesn’t offer enough upside in any category to be worth holding in 15-teamers, Although I’d understand holding in an NL-only OBP format just for the volume, everywhere else it’s time to run away from Bride.
Deep Leagues
Rob Refsnyder (OF, Boston Red Sox)
He’s one of those guys who seems to always have a run where he’s hitting .300 or hitting decent power, but the other shoe always drops before the season is done. And after hitting just .111/.111/.282 with one homer in 27 AB the past two weeks, it’s time he gets the boot.
Adam Frazier (2B/SS, Kansas City Royals)
Frazier is comedic here just in that a competitive team like the Royals trotted this guy out to the plate over 250 times this season. In that span, he’s failed to even hit for average, seriously like his one job, dragging along a .206/.284/.286 line with three homers and two SB in half a season. 19, count ’em, 19 RBI too! I don’t care that now he’s playing less, the manager still needs to see a smarmy psychiatrist.