They say that results minus expectations equal happiness. So, what does that mean for expectations minus results?
In sports, there may be no more difficult time for a fanbase than when going through a rebuilding phase. Oftentimes, in baseball, this means ridding the MLB roster with any sort of impact talent, instead focusing on building a strong farm system and collecting via the draft and international free agency. For a while, the allure of the future can satisfy fans during this tough time.
Nevertheless, we, as a society, tend to focus on immediate gratification. While hopes for a better future can keep a fanbase sane for a period of time, eventually, that wanes. After all, if the point of sports is to compete for a championship, there isn’t much fun in watching a team with a minimal chance of accomplishing that objective. Eventually, this displeasure reaches the ownership level, and, from there, pressure is at an all time high for the rebuild to end quickly.
As was the case for the Cubs and the Astros, there are some instances where the transition from being in a rebuild to competing for championships works out beautifully. However, so much has to go right in terms of prospect development for that to happen, and, by now, it is starting to become clear that those teams may be the exception. At the end of the day, if building a championship team were easy, anyone could do it.
Unfortunately for the Detroit Tigers, they don’t seem to be an exception to that rule. After not being able to capitalize on a championship window created in the early 2010s, the team has been stuck in a rebuilding phase, something they have tried desperately to get out of. Although there have been signs of optimism, for every step forward, there seems to be two steps back, leading to frustration in the Motor City.
Ultimately, there is a lot that can be learned by the growing pains and missteps the Tigers have gone through when trying to engineer the perfect world. In life, it’s important we use history to learn from our mistakes to improve in the future. How can the Tigers do that to salvage their rebuild, and what lessons can be learned from this process? Let’s take a closer look into one of the most fascinating rebuilding efforts of recent memory.
Stats entering Monday June 20th
The Rebuild
When you think of the historic franchises in baseball, the Tigers have to come to mind. After all, they’ve been in existence since 1901, and essentially have the same features they did there. It’s hard to beat that ol’ scripted “D” that Al Kaline, Ty Cobb, and Miguel Cabrera have worn over the years; even if it’s not quite Yankee pinstripes, it’s still very special.
That being said, Detroit has certainly experienced its fair share of bumps in the road. They have only come away with four World Series championships, haven’t won more than one World Series in a specific decade, and have dealt with a lot of turbulent flows throughout their existence. Starting in 1994, this really reared its ugly head.
Between 1994 and 2005, the Tigers failed to have one winning season and never finished higher than third place in the division. Meanwhile, in 2003, they managed to win just 43 of 162 games, leading to the sixth-worst winning percentage (.265) in MLB history. So, how does a team go from that to winning the American League pennant just three years later? It all speaks to the mindset by then-general manager Dave Dombrowski.
Usually, teams who win 43 games in the previous season don’t make big splashes via free agency, but that didn’t stop Dombrowski; he signed star catcher Iván Rodríguez to a four-year, $40 million contract. At the time, that was a considerable amount of cheddar, particularly for a team not expected to be competitive. In hindsight, a lucrative contract for a catcher going to his age-32 season seems like a great risk, and it ultimately didn’t pan out – he only had one more season with an above-average weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). At the very least, though, it did signal that the franchise was through with their struggles and trying to improve.
To add onto the Rodríguez signing, Dombrowski also brought in the likes of Carlos Guillén and Magglio Ordóñez via free agency, while Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, and others worked their way up to the MLB level. Although signing 30-year-old free agents to long-term contracts is a short-term-oriented move, the development of younger players such as Verlander and Granderson certainly helped matters. Of course, acquiring future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera as a 25-year-old also doesn’t hurt matters.
Outside of 2008, Detroit didn’t have one losing season between 2006 and 2014. Furthermore, they won the AL Central in four consecutive seasons in the early 2010s (2011-2014), and had built an absolute juggernaut of a roster. I mean, just look at the players on the 2014 Tigers team:
- 1B Miguel Cabrera
- OF JD Martinez
- 2B Ian Kinsler
- DH Victor Martínez
- SP Max Scherzer
- SP Justin Verlander
- SP David Price
- SP Rick Porcello
- SP Aníbal Sánchez
- SP Drew Smyly
- CF Austin Jackson
This doesn’t include youngsters like Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suárez, and Robbie Ray, who all developed into All-Star caliber players. To sum it up, Detroit had FIVE pitchers who have won a Cy Young award, and a lineup that scored the second-most runs in all of baseball. Their ultimate reward for building this roster? Being swept in the 2014 ALDS. If that doesn’t speak to the randomness of baseball, particularly in the postseason, I don’t know what does!
Not to worry, though! The Tigers were ready to go all-in for the 2015 season, sending Eugenio Suárez to the Reds for starter Alfredo Simon, trading Porcello for outfielder Yoenis Céspedes, while bringing back the same star power they had from the previous season. Nevertheless, all good runs come to an end, and that’s what 2015 represented for the Tigers, finishing last in the AL Central.
Consequently, players such as David Price, Céspedes, and Joakim Soria were sent to other organizations at the trade deadline, signaling a clear rebuild, or at least a retooling period, was in order. Making matters more complicated, Dombrowski stepped down right after the trade deadline, further indicating that transition was needed.
However, this is not what new general manager Al Avila had in mind. Instead, the team’s payroll increased to just under $200 million, with outfielder Justin Upton and starting pitcher Jordan Zimmerman signed to massive contracts. While the team did win 86 games, they still failed to make the postseason, and from there, the ship sunk:
- 2017: 64-98 (.395)
- 2018: 64-98 (.395)
- 2019: 47-114 (.304)
- 2020: 23-35 (.397)
Ultimately, this resulted in two first overall picks, as well as four straight top-five picks. If there’s a way to reboot your farm system in a hurry, that’s certainly a way to do so. At some point, though, it’s time for the progress of a rebuild to show itself, and that’s what the Tigers thought they were doing in 2021.
It all started in the offseason with the hiring of well-regarded manager AJ Hinch. Regardless of what you think about his role with the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the value of managers, he certainly would appear to be a very sound manager to orchestrate the end of the rebuild. To top it off, after not getting off the a great start, the Tigers had a winning record from May on. In the end, their 77-85 record and .475 wining percentage was a massive step forward from years past, and it appeared to be time for them to make a postseason push.
Unfortunately, though, things don’t always go as smoothly as you’d hope.
A Season Filled With Disappointment
In 2021, the Tigers’ opening day payroll, just under $81 million, was the franchise’s lowest spending amount since 2005. Given the seemingly upward trajectory they appeared to be going with, the organization clearly felt that it was time to spend.
In came starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez on a five-year, $77 million contract, along with shortstop Javier Báez on a six-year, $140 million contract. Those are not investments made unless a team feels incentivized to compete right away, and this was only further established with the acquisitions of catcher Tucker Barnhart and outfielder Austin Meadows. In fact, Detroit’s $54 million jump in payroll was its highest ever; ownership indicated the team was ready to spend, and spend they did.
To be fair, with a 78.5 preseason projected win total by the betting markets, per FOX SPORTS, it wasn’t consensus opinion that the Tigers were destined to be a playoff team this season. However, all that matters in terms of setting expectations is the perspective of the organization, which was quite clear in general manager Al Avila’s eyes, according to The Detroit Free Press:
“I’m hopeful that by the trading deadline, we’re in a position that we want to trade somebody to take us over the top. That’s what we hope for and that’s what we expect.”
Both based on what he was saying and his actions, how could you not think that Avila was eyeing a postseason berth? After all, without one postseason appearances in his six years at the helm, pressure was naturally starting to rise, and he, understandably, tried to capitalize on a window that appeared to be opening. At the end of the day, though, in the game of baseball, there are few things you can count on to go as planned.
Entering Monday, June 20, the Tigers sport a 26-40 record and .394 winning percentage, essentially putting them in line to be the caliber of the team they had been prior to 2021. Normally, this would simply be seen as growing pains, but when you look at the money spent in the offseason and the team’s improvement last season, it clearly is frustrating. In fact, we have reached the part of the season where fans are starting to express their displeasure, while team meetings are being held. When that starts to happen, it’s a not a promising sign.
The culprit? Arguably the worst offense in league history. As of June 16th, the Tigers were scoring the fewest amount of runs per game in MLB history, according to Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs. Now, after scoring 21 runs in their two weekend games against the Rangers, that is no longer in the case. That being said, compared to the rest of the league, their offensive struggles aren’t just evident, they’re glaring:
When you’re expanding the zone, not making contact, and not doing much when you do make contact, that is not an ideal combination. Alas, it’s where the Tigers find themselves right now. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, only three – Harold Castro (107 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (103 wRC+), and Austin Meadows (102 wRC+) – have been above-average hitters this season. On top of that, per Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), eight of the ten players in that sample have been below-replacement level players this season.
Add it all together, and the Tigers are the only team in baseball with a negative fWAR amongst their position players this season. Those offseason acquisitions, meanwhile? Well, it’s same to say things aren’t going as planned:
- Javier Báez has a 54 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR
- Eduardo Rodriguez had his lowest K-BB (10.3%) of his career, and is now on unpaid leave.
- Austin Meadows has a -0.3 fWAR
- Tucker Barnhart has a 52 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR
All together, that’s a negative combined fWAR between the four players that seemingly were supposed to put them over the top this season. There are always risks with acquiring players from other teams, but given their payroll situation and aspirations, it’s clear why they felt obliged to do so. Now, these players will likely eventually see their performance improve, but it just speaks to the disappointment that this season has been thus far.
Things haven’t been ideal on the pitching side either – they rank 19th in rotation skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 16th in bullpen SIERA – while four-fifths of their initial starting rotation is no longer intact. At the end of the day, though, considering the circumstances, it certainly isn’t the pitching staff that has done them in. Then again, when you are trying to compensate for arguably the worst offense in MLB history, the bar is forcibly placed higher than that.
As for the team’s future core, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
How’s The Future Looking?
The concept of a rebuild is one thing. However, ultimately, it all comes down to not only acquiring young talent, but developing them into the players they have the potential to become. So far, that has been problematic for the Tigers.
After not having a first-round pick in either 2011 and 2012, Detroit has struggled to add talent via the amateur draft:
| Year | Player | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Jonathon Crawford | 20 |
| 2013 | Corey Knebel | 39 |
| 2014 | Derek Hill | 23 |
| 2015 | Beau Burrows | 22 |
| 2015 | Christin Stewart | 34 |
| 2016 | Matt Manning | 9 |
| 2017 | Alex Faedo | 19 |
| 2018 | Casey Mize | 1 |
| 2019 | Riley Greene | 5 |
| 2020 | Spencer Torkelson | 1 |
| 2021 | Jackson Jobe | 3 |
Knebel blossomed as a reliever elsewhere, but it’s safe to say that the drafts between 2013 and 2015 did not go as planned for Detroit. That being said, with Avila’s first draft coming in 2016, it would be logical to start there. After all, from 2016 through 2021, Detroit had a top-ten pick in all but one year. Naturally, this would lead to an influx of talent, right?
In 2016, the Tigers drafted two-sport star Matt Manning with the 9th overall pick. While it’s always risky to draft a high-school pitcher so early, Detroit believed in his athleticism and the potential of his arsenal. Initially, with a lot of success in the minor leagues, it looked like the Tigers had hit on a future ace. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily (6.2% K-BB, 5.27 SIERA) in 18 MLB starts last year, and only made two starts this season before landing on the injured list with a biceps injury. Development is in order for the 24-year-old, but the inability to miss bats immediately certainly affects his future projection.
After having a winning record during 2016 season, Detroit didn’t pick until the 19th overall selection, where they drafted pitcher Alex Faedo. The University of Florida product had quite the decorated collegiate career, but didn’t pitch in 2020 or 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s now up at the MLB level, though is already 26-years-old, with Fangraphs Depth Chart projections not being overly fond of him (4.74 projected ERA). More concerning is his 87.5 stuff+ rating (well below average) from Eno Sarris’ predictive model, which paints a clear picture here; striking batters out is unlikely to be a strength for him.
Initially, the #1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft seemed destined to be heading towards the San Francisco Giants. However, with Pablo Sandoval hitting a walkoff home run on the final game of the year, it was the Tigers who earned the lucky draw of being able to pick who they pleased. Ultimately, they chose Auburn starter Casey Mize, an utterly dominant college pitcher who would appear to have a very low bust rate. However the early results at the MLB level (11.6% K-BB, 4.61 SIERA) aren’t promising right now, and he recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Now, we’re looking at him probably not pitching in an MLB game until he’s nearing the age of 27, without any track record of missing bats (9.3%). Perhaps the splitter comes and a breakout happens, but that’s all speculation as of now.
It’s too early to tell about either high school outfielder Riley Greene (5th overall in 2019), Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson (1st overall in 2020), or high-school pitcher Jackson Jobe (3rd overall in 2021). For now, though, it’s not exactly inspiring that Torkelson (-0.8 fWAR) has been one of the least-valuable position players in baseball. As for Jobe, the decision to select him, a surprise at the time, wasn’t a popular decision:
GET AVILA A ONE WAY TICKET OUT OF DETROIT
— Eric Terwilliger☘️ (@erictwigs) July 11, 2021
It doesn’t fit into their rebuild timeline at all. Awful pick.
— Ethan Fleck (@Ethan_the_fleck) July 11, 2021
Positively asinine. You had THE best SS prospect on the board with Marcelo Mayer, at a position of TREMENDOUS need, and you PASS on him. And you wonder why fans are irate at you.
— Ryan Schuiling (@RyanSchuiling) July 11, 2021
Your GM is a joke. Consensus best player drops to your pick at 3, and you take a HS pitcher that no one else was as high on as you. Unreal
— Jason Fielder (@JasonFielderTV) July 11, 2021
It certainly is too early to tell how the decision to pass on more well-regarded players, such as Marcelo Mayer – considered to be arguably the best player in last year’s draft – will fare. That being said, there are extensive risks with selecting a high-school pitcher with the third overall pick, while the future pay-off is years away from potentially happening. For a very deep farm system, perhaps that would be a risk worth taking, but perhaps not for one that isn’t getting the anticipated development they hoped for from their young players.
Speaking of which, it hasn’t been an ideal minor-league season for the Tigers. 2020 second-round pick Dillon Dingler has a 96 wRC+ at Double-A, as well as a 33% strikeout rate. Things haven’t been much better for top international signing Cristian Santana, who has an 81 wRC+ and 30.5% strikeout rate at Low-A. Pitching prospect Joey Wentz is on the injured list with a shoulder injury, and had just a 78.5 stuff+ in two big-league starts.
24-year-old pitcher Beau Brieske (16.4% strikeout rate, 4.71 SIERA) has had mixed results at the MLB level, shortstop Ryan Kreidler (106 wRC+) hasn’t dominated despite being a 24-year-old in Triple-A, infielder Gage Workman has a 71 wRC+ and a 41.1% strikeout rate in Double-A, and Trei Cruz has a 99 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in High-A. From there, the list goes on and on. Player development is anything but simple, and, right now, it’s getting the best of this organization.
Meanwhile, after shining as a rookie rule-five draft pick last year, outfielder Akil Baddoo struggled mightily (28 wRC+) at the MLB level this season, and is still not performing well (96 wRC+) at Triple-A. Furthermore, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, one of the main MLB bright spots during the team’s rebuild, has by far the highest outside-zone swing rate (40.4%) of his career, and has plummeted to a 58 wRC+ and a -0.3 fWAR. 26-year-old second baseman Kody Clemens has a 2 wRC+ in the majors, while pitcher Elvin Rodriguez struggled (5.20 xFIP) in Triple-A, and also had a -0.6 fWAR in 20.1 MLB innings. When searching for the next young core in Detroit, we definitely have to squint.
That being said, there are shining lights that can help turn things around.
Reasons For Optimism
It’s easy to look at the glass as half empty, but it’s much healthier to look at it as half full. To that end, there are some glimmers of hope in Detroit.
Of course, it all starts with young lefty Tarik Skubal. At a time where Mize and Manning garnered the hype in the Motor City, it was easy for Skubal to fall under the radar. Now, though, it is becoming evidently clear that he’s heading towards not only being the best of the bunch, but perhaps the face of their next contending team.
As a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University, expectations weren’t particularly high for Skubal. However, sometimes, your best success story comes where you least expect it, and that has turned out to be true here. After shredding minor-league hitting in 2019, Skubal started to receive notable prospect recognition, and by the beginning of 2021, he was a top-25 overall prospect for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Right now, he has done anything but disappoint.
In his rookie season, Skubal shined with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 3.92 SIERA. The problem? A 2.11 home runs allowed per nine innings (2nd in MLB among starters with 100 innings), as well as a 14.6% barrel rate allowed that led all MLB starters. Per Baseball Savant’s expected ERA, which takes into account quality of contact, Skubal “deserved” a 5.58 ERA, which certainly could be seen as concerning. Luckily, batted-ball data for pitchers has historically been confounded with a lot of statistical noise, while pitchers constantly are making adjustments to maximize their potential. That’s exactly what Skubal has done, and he’s been rewarded for it.
See, Skubal’s four-seam fastball, which allowed a .429 expected weighted-on base average (xwOBA) and 17.5% barrel rate in 2021, got hit tremendously hard. So, what did he do? Well, he simply started throwing it less:
That’s a 15% decrease in four-seam usage, which has helped paved the way for a 48.5% ground-ball rate allowed this season. Add in that he’s still missing bats (26.9% K) and has simply refused to walk anyone (4.7% BB), and you get a very complete pitcher. You don’t rank in the top-six in starting pitcher fWAR by accident, and the Tigers should have a starter to build around at the top of their rotation.
Meanwhile, although the farm system is having some struggles, there are still bright spots. For starters, while Spencer Torkelson has performed 29% below league average (71 wRC+), he’s making plenty of contact (9.8% swinging-strike rate), and is not chasing pitches (23%) out of the zone. Sure, the power hasn’t been there, but are we really going to worry about the power for a player who slugged .729 with a .392 ISO during his college career? Add Fangraphs’ #5 overall prospect Riley Greene into the mix, and there should be at least two marquee position players for Detroit to build around.
Plus, there are other positives in the farm system. 2020 fifth-round pick Colt Keith has a 151 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in High-A, and looks like a potential everyday third baseman. Pitcher Reese Olson, acquired for Daniel Norris at last season’s trade deadline, has a 31.8% K-BB at Double-A. At the same level is Wilmer Flores (no, not that one), who has an absurd 31.4% K-BB as well. None of these prospects were thought of as elite prospects when they were acquired, but, like Skubal, they are heading towards behind major success stories, and adding to the team’s hopeful future core.
Meanwhile, the bullpen features potential trade chips in Gregory Soto and Michael Fulmer, as well as 26-year-old Alex Lange, who has a rather dominant 17.6% swinging-strike rate this season. For a team that seemingly was at the brink of contention and went through a notable overhaul, you would have hoped for a much larger group of future impact players by now. Nevertheless, there are players for Tigers fans to be excited about moving forward.
Overview
To this point, we’ve gone through all the various aspects of the Tigers’ rebuild. That being said, our two initial questions still need to be answered.
Have mistakes been made along the way? Sure. Perhaps there have been some player development flaws, while potentially too much reliance on pitching prospects, who have proven to be extremely volatile. Still, if there is one takeaway lesson from this, it’s to know yourselves. Did the Tigers go on a nice run last year? Sure. Did they have a roster that was just a few pieces away from making a postseason push? That wouldn’t appear to be the case.
Of course, building a successful roster is much easier said than done. Eventually, pressure from ownership and the fanbase strengthens, particularly when a rebuild goes longer than hoped for. Unfortunately, this usually leads to aggressive “win-now” maneuvers at a time where it’s not warranted and to unrealistic expectations, which is what we’re getting with Detroit. Now, did anyone predict them having potentially the worst-performing offense in MLB history. Certainly not, but there has seemed to be a disconnect between where the organization likely is and where they want to/believe they are, which can lead to ill-advised decisions. Now, it only makes the struggles seem even more glaring, leading to the type of disappointment that can result in numerous changes.
On the bright side, hope definitely should not be completely lost. Between Skubal, Torkelson, and Greene, they are still future All-Star players on the roster. Meanwhile, some of the team’s peripheral prospects are showing real signs of breaking out, while there is a lot of payroll flexibility soon to come. Nevertheless, considering this rebuild effectively started in 2017, to still be in a holding pattern in 2022 is certainly concerning.
At the end of the day, it’s all fun and games to try to model yourself as the Cubs or Astros, but to succeed in a full-scale rebuild means achieving an arduously high hit rate on your premium amateur acquisitions, in addition to rounding it out with a core of unheralded prospects. Detroit has fared well in the latter category, but their limited returns via from the draft and international free agency has plagued the rebuild thus far, and may continue to do so.
This is a historic franchise with a fanbase that deserves to see their team rise to the top again. Unfortunately, this season has served as a stark reminder that this may be further away than anticipated. It may require another slight reboot, yet that is a much better option than trying to capitalize on a window that isn’t open Eventually, this franchise should show its true stripes, but they must have the “eye of the tiger” for their roars to be heard.
Photos by Efe Yağız Soysal/Unsplash, Creative Hina By.Quileen/Unsplash, and Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)