Welcome back deep leaguers! If you’re reading this rather than running back and wide receiver rankings, congratulations! There is a good chance that means your fantasy stickball team made the playoffs. First, make sure you know your league settings. Some leagues have 1 week formats, some have 2 week formats and I have seen players claim victory only to realize there is a full week left in the matchup. Check the tie breaker rules. Is it h2h record? Roto Score? You should know if you need to actually win to win. You should know who your first player out is if you need an emergency add, and you should know who that add will be. And finally, don’t trust Sunday starting pitchers. Too many starts get moved around this time of year, you don’t wanna wake up on Sunday just to realize the Dodgers decided to make it a bullpen game. Other than that. Good Luck, hope you have Luzardo.
Fallers
Jake Mangum, Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates
6% Rostered
Mangum has retained more playing time than I expected him to following the return of Oneil Cruz. He started 24 games in August and 4 out 6 so far in September. However, he has not hit out of the leadoff spot since August 12th and has not successfully stolen a base since August 8th.
Mangum was a big batting average and stolen base source in June and July. He batted over .300 and stole 6 bases in each month. He benefitted from high BABIPs, but he’s a speedy player who hits a ton of ground balls, so we expect an elevated BABIP. However, he maintained a “lucky” .323 BABIP in August, and batted just .233 with a single stolen base while being caught twice.
Pitcher List Process Plus charts are the best charts in the biz. This prime specimen shows us that Mangum’s contact rates have dropped significantly. So, we have a contact and speed first player, who has been dropped in order, is making less contact, and has barely attempted to steal bases for a month. Oh, summer love can be so fleeting… Thanks for all you did in June and July, but it’s time to look elsewhere. Go Buccos.
Jake Cronenworth, First Base, Second Base, Short Stop, San Diego Padres
6% Rostered
Cronenworth missed a large chunk of the season due to a concussion. He returned to the Padres at the end of June, and had a productive month of July. He slashed .294/.362/.400 with a couple homers and 4 stolen bases. But he slumped badly in August, batting just .232 despite a .321 BABIP. He’s carried that cold streak into September, and is just 1 for 17 this month. That one hit was a dinger though, so you could say that all he’s done this month is mash homers.
There isn’t really a silver lining here though. All of Cronenworth’s power metrics are poor. We’re talking bottom 10% of hitters in hard hit and barrel rates and bottom 20% in exit velocity. His whiff and chase rates are both a bit better than average, and yet his K rate is well below average. His process chart is downright ugly.
His positional eligibility is great. I’d love to say he’s just been unlucky, but we’ve already looked at his BABIP and know that hasn’t been the case. He’s been unhelpful for a while now and I don’t see any signs of a turnaround. Again, time to look elsewhere.
Cole Young, Second Base, Seattle Mariners
7% Rostered
Back up a couple months and Young really looked like he was blossoming into a solid hitter. He launched 5 dingers each in June and July and carried an OPS of .790 and .800 through those two months. And he did so with BABIPs below the league average. But he slumped badly in August, slashing just .175/.252/.258 with a couple dingers and a failed stolen base attempt.
Young’s power metrics are unimpressive. His hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity are all in the bottom third of MLB hitters. He has plus speed, but doesn’t run much. His best feature as a hitter so far is his 17% K rate, which is just barely outside the top quartile. However, he has a poor 6.6% walk rate, which explains why his time at the leadoff spot was short-lived.
At first glance, his process chart is pretty scary. He’s producing his poorest contact rate and power output exactly when we need it most. But we can also see that he’s struggled for periods this season and has bounced back well. His was most productive in the middle of the season after all. It’s that resiliency that makes me a bit more optimistic about Young turning things back around this season than I was about the two Jakes. I also still really like Young as a long term player. Maybe it’s the + 10% love from me that he gets for being a Pittsburgh area native.
Risers
Dane Myers, Outfield, Cincinnati Reds
0% Rostered
I’m questioning how accurate Yahoo’s roster percentages are. Myers sure as heck is rostered in all my leagues with more than 12 teams. He hasn’t been a full time player, lets get that out of the way early. He’s started in 5 of the Reds last 10 games. He’s a right handed batter who is much better vs lefties (.872 OPS) than he is against righties (.652 OPS), and that’s the wrong side of a platoon to land on.
But Myers is on fire, slashing .387/.457/.548 with a homer and two steals over the last two weeks. He’s batting over .400 so far in September and has recently occupied the leadoff spot, just ahead of Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. The catbird seat at GABP is a great place to hit even you aren’t a full time player.
Now, Myers’ underlying rates aren’t much to look at. His 89.3 MPH exit velocity is his most bullish power metric. His 4.4% barrel rate 36% hard hit paint a more bearish picture. Myers also has above average chase and and whiff rates, but a sees a lot of pitches and still carries a K rate of almost 24%. Thankfully he’s walked in over 11% of his plate appearances which has made him an OBP asset and could help keep him in the leadoff spot.
I’m not saying Myers is going to be a league winner. But he’s been productive and is in a good spot to continue that production for the rest of the season. This is your Mangum replacement right here.
Sean Murphy, Catcher, Atlanta Braves
3% Rostered
Murphy missed most of the season, but is back and has handled the majority of catching duties for the Braves lately. He’s slashing .346/.469/.769 with 3 homers over the last two weeks. Things don’t look so rosy under the hood though.
Murphy has posted just a 7% barrel rate, a 38% hard hit and an average exit velocity under 87 MPH. His chase and whiff rates are both over 34% and his K rate is over 35%. His process chart shows a below average hitter trending downward.
I know catcher has a lower bar than most positions, and Murphy is probably worth holding in 2 catcher leagues simply because he’s playing. I would prefer him to say Rafeal Flores, but I don’t think his recent surge is anything other than a mini hot streak.
Justin Foscue, First Base and Second Base, Texas Rangers
0% Rostered
Foscue has been in and out of the lineup for the Rangers all season. Like Dane Myers, he’s a right handed batter who hits lefties much better (1.013 OPS) than he does righties (.526 OPS). But he really does mash southpaws. He’s also been in the starting 9 more often than not lately, and has been productive coming off the bench as well. Over the last couple weeks he’s started 8 out 12 games and has slashed .333/.375/.733 with 3 homers.
Foscue has the most exciting rates of any player we’ve looked at this week too. He’s got a hard hit rate over 42%, a barrel rate over 11% and an average exit velocity over 89 MPH. Those are all above league average. He has well above whiff and chase rates too, but again like Myers, he sees a lot of pitches and actually has a below average K rate, just over 24%.
It would be nice if that Uluru looking plateau was happening right now, but then my Uluru reference wouldn’t make any sense. Still, even without that mid season outburst, Foscue has trended upward almost all season. He’s even starting to spike upwards at the far fight end of the chart. He’ll require a bit more attention than other players, since he may sit against right handed starters, but we have to look at all angles this time of year. This is a hot bat with real talent who could be a big help over the next few weeks.
That’s it for week 25. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
