DFS Plays of the Day – 7/1/23

Optimal DFS plays for DK & FD for Sat Jul 1

Slate Details

DraftKings – Early slate (7 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (5 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.

FanDuel – Main slate (7 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Late slate (5 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.

This article will focus mainly on the 4 PM slate; full 7 PM slate thoughts will be available in the afternoon in the PitcherList Discord channel #dfs-and-bets for those interested.


Weather Impact

Isolated T-storms expected for MIA@ATL – watch weather updates for impact closer to gametime.

Light rain in the area for MIL@PIT might cause a delay, but probably not enough for a PPD risk.

Light rain as well for CLE@CHC – also probably not more than a chance of a delay (7 PM slate).

4 PM slate:

The top two games for HRs are WAS@PHI (wind out to left-center) & MIN@BAL (wind out to left).

Assuming the roof is closed, HOU@TEX is the closest you could call pitcher-friendly.

7 PM slate:

DET@COL: Warm, swirling winds, but still HR & XBH friendly.

ARI@LAA: Winds out to left-center.

Swirling winds at Busch Stadium makes NYY@STL safest for pitchers.


Pitching (4 PM)


PLV Pitching (4 PM) Jul 1 23

Everything points to Dylan Cease being the no-debate SP1 for the 4 PM slate – can be considered for all formats.

SP2 is a little tough…

Nathan Eovaldi would normally be the next best play, but HOU has been playing better lately and last we saw Eovaldi, he got doubled to death by Yankees Rs.  HOU has a very R-heavy lineup and they’re not striking out much.  This feels like a fade.

Zack Wheeler gets the Nats.  Well, don’t look now but the Nats have a 3-game winning streak, and this is the most volatile spot for HRs on the slate.  Wheeler is primarily a FB pitcher vs Ls, and that’s mostly what the Nats will be rolling out for their lineup.  He’s averaged 6 hits/start in his last three starts, yet only one of them resulted in more than 1 ER.  This coin flip may be fine for cash, but there’s a lot of volatility here for tournament play.

Corbin Burnes will likely see a large chunk of ownership since he’s pitching vs PIT, but PIT has a 4-game win streak going with at least 5 runs in each.  He’s probably a better cash play than Wheeler – as Musgrove & Peralta got their share of Ks vs PIT in recent days – but don’t be surprised if he gives up 2-3 ERs to go along with 6 Ks or so.

The upside SP2 may be Charlie Morton – as unreliable as he may be at times.  It’s going to be HOT during gametime, but the winds are expected to be blowing around, which may help.  Morton mostly forces GB contact vs L – which helps limit power from bats like Jazz Chisholm Jr.Jesús Sánchez – so he just needs to limit contact from Rs like Jorge SolerBryan De La Cruz.  Their career stats vs Morton are actually in his favor, making him a solid upside pivot from the plays above.

Two ultimate high-risk/high-reward plays are facing the top offenses on the slate.  Eury Pérez has been everything the Marlins have hoped for and then some, yielding only 1 ER in the whole month of June.  This is his ultimate test – and sadly, even if he passes, it is likely the Marlins send him back down to AAA anyway to limit his innings.  However, he does have a chance – he’s very solid overall vs Rs, and has a high K rate vs Ls (although does allow FB contact to Ls when they hit) – so if he can force the red-hot Matt Olson into multiple Ks and limit the damage from Michael Harris IIEddie Rosario, he will prove he’s worthy of the Baby Goat title sewn into his glove.

(watch for weather updates for MIA@ATL if you plan to play Morton or Pérez)

Hunter Brown has had a lot of up-and-down performances to date, but his latest was a 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K outing vs the Dodgers on the road that is worth mentioning.  If the roof is closed for HOU@TEX, this should be a relatively safe pitcher’s park scenario which pairs well with his GB contact tendencies.  He just has to limit hard contact to Ls.

Pitcher Pricing (4 PM) Jul 1 23


Batting (4 PM)


Given the strong winds blowing out for WAS@PHI, Phillies vs MacKenzie Gore feels like the starting point for bats for the 4 PM slate.  They last saw Gore in early June, and J.T. Realmuto got the best of him for both a HR and a double.  Alec Bohm was on the IL for the last game vs Gore but is always a solid play vs L pitching.  Josh Harrison – if he’s in the lineup – would be a solid punt play with upside.

If you’re not playing Zack Wheeler and you want to stack this game in tournaments, Nat bats like Jeimer CandelarioIldemaro Vargas are solid plays vs Wheeler’s fastballs.

The next best game for hitting is MIN@BAL – even though it’s not likely this ends up high scoring on both sides, there are bats worth mentioning in this game.  For BAL, Gunnar Henderson should rebound after yesterday’s performance based on his hit profile vs Bailey Ober; for MIN, Royce Lewis looks like a solid play vs Kyle Bradish, who is starting to allow more FB contact to Rs lately.

Anthony DeSclafani is always good for a few ERs per start, so having a Met bat or two may pay off on this slate.  Brandon NimmoBrett Baty are hitting the best recently vs Rs that mainly throw sliders, and Francisco Lindor has hit well vs DeSclafani in his career.

Kyle Muller is expected to get the start for the As, and although he’s been on the IL for the last month, his last 4 starts previous to going on IL all resulted in 5-6 ERs.  The White Sox still aren’t popular in DFS – and for good reason – but they do offer decent value if they come through.  Luis Robert Jr.Yasmani Grandal are generally good plays vs Ls, and Andrew VaughnZach Remillard would be other options for value or as part of a stack.

As mentioned earlier, Nathan Eovaldi could have some trouble with this HOU lineup.  Stacking HOU hasn’t worked out much of the time this season, but José AbreuJose Altuve are rolling lately, and Jake Meyers isn’t a bad value play either.

Other possible plays:

  • Andrew McCutchen – since tweeting his mysterious ‘Furries’ tweet this week – has been on fire.  The less we probably know the better.
  • Patrick Bailey has a hit streak going back to 6/22 with 11 total hits – 5 of those being doubles or HRs.
  • Christian Yelich continues to be the main reliable bat for the Brewers, but Brice Turang has also had a double in each game since his recent return to the team.
Hitter Pricing Jul 1 23


Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

One response to “DFS Plays of the Day – 7/1/23”

  1. Chris Bowyer says:

    The national furry convention is held in Pittsburgh around this time each year. Cutch has remarked, in the past, that he’s hit strangely well while they’re in town. Hence the tweet.

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