The featured slate of today is compromised of 14 of the 15 games on tap with the lone game omitted being from the Detroit/Miami contest. Let’s get right into it.
Starting Pitchers
We’re blessed with an abundance of aces this Friday evening. Gerrit Cole ($11,000) leads the bunch and draws a date with the Orioles who surprisingly have the worst wRC+ (67) against righties over the last two weeks. They are pretty tough to strike out though, and there might be better alternatives than the Yankees ace today. If you’re spending at the tip-top, I’d side with Kevin Gausman ($10,800) who is slightly cheaper. He carries more upside, and win potential, facing an Angels lineup that is outperforming its true talent lately. They have the 4th highest K% (27%) against righties over the last month after all.
Shane McClanahan ($10,400) had a rough outing against Baltimore and gets a tough test taking on the Astros at home. I’d steer clear of him and go with Logan Webb ($10,200) instead who is also coming off a brutal start against the Nationals no less. Webb is a monster at home though with a career 2.92 xFIP at Oracle Park. He should rebound even against this hot-hitting Boston lineup, and I’d assume his ownership will be lower than usual due to that abnormal outing last go.
Joe Musgrove ($9,700) facing Texas and Mitch Keller’s ($9,600) form make them easy to stay away from. In a similar price range, Zack Wheeler ($9,800) against Pittsburgh, Max Scherzer ($9,400) facing Washington, and Sonny Gray ($9,300) getting the Royals make all of them startable. I’d take Scherzer over Gray and Wheeler.
As for some lower price options, MacKenzie Gore ($7,300) is in a great spot facing the Mets who have been struggling vs lefties. Over the last 30 days, they have the 3rd worst wRC+ (74) and t-8th highest K% (24.7%) facing Southpaws. The Mets roster has a 34.2% K% and .246 xwOBA in 38 plate appearances against Gore, and he has 6+ punchouts in 13/19 starts.
Probably the best bargain on the board is Grayson Rodriguez ($6,300). The Yankees are getting Aaron Judge back, but he’ll likely be rusty, and they have been miserable at the dish with a 90 wRC+ against RHP that is 10th worst over the last 30 days. We have seen Chase Anderson, Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth, Brady Singer, and Justin Verlander, all handle this lineup with plenty of strikeouts along the way as of late. The highly-touted rookie should be able to do the same today pitching at home.
Bats
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batter props.
As for today’s bats, it’s always a good idea to back the ones at Coors Field. It’s a bit of a conundrum recommending two of the worst offenses in Colorado and Oakland to produce some runs, but in these humid summer high-altitude conditions, any team can get it done. C.J. Cron ($4,700), Nolan Jones ($4,300), and Randal Grichuk ($4,100) all stand out at the top of the Rockies lineup facing a lefty in J.P Sears. Picking the A’s bats is a little more tricky, but J.J. Bleday ($3,500) and Brent Rooker ($3,800) are probably the best looks for them.
The Twins should be a phenomenal stack facing Brady Singer, who they have hit well in the past. Byron Buxton ($5,200) has particularly mashed him and is 7-13 with 2 doubles and 2 homers against him. Carlos Correa ($4,500), Alex Kirillhoff ($2,700), and Max Kepler ($2,800) all have hit him well too in the past.
Another stack-worthy lineup is the Dodgers squaring off against Brandon Williamson and the Reds. Willamson has a 5.10 xFIP and ranks in the bottom 8% in xERA/xwOBA, and 21% in both whiff% and K%. Any of the top dogs in that lineup should suffice, but when it comes to cheaper options James Outman ($3,500) stands out. He’s been seeing the ball well lately and has 8+ DK points in five of his last eight games averaging nearly 10 per game over this span.