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DFS Plays of the Day 8/25/23

Tyler's Friday DFS excerpt.

The featured slate at DraftKings consists of 12 of the 15 games on tap for the day. So, the main focus of this article will be on those games. Unfortunately, that means no Framber Valdez, Gerrit Cole, or Zach Eflin talk. Best of luck however you construct your lineup today!

 

Starting Pitchers

 

In spite of those starters out of the picture, there are still plenty of fantastic pitching options this Friday. Starting with¬†Spencer Strider ($12,800) in his own tier in terms of pricing. He faces the Giants for a consecutive start. Typically that’s an advantage to the offense, but in this case, it shouldn’t really matter. Strider strung together 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings while allowing just two baserunners all game. The Giants have the worst wRC+ (73) over the last 30 days against righties.

San Diego’s roster has had its fair share of troubles facing Brandon Woodruff ($10,400) in the past and can be shaky from game to game. They have a 25.7% K% and .260 xwOBA against him across 70 combined plate appearances. Kodai Senga ($9,600) is another top-tier pitcher in a phenomenal spot facing the Angels. They have the 4th highest K% (27.3%) and t-3rd worst wRC+ (81) against righties over the past month. Senga has been a stud all season long and could approach double-digit strikeout numbers in this matchup.

Sonny Gray ($9,000) is another solid alternative considering the Rangers’ recent form. They have the t-8th highest K% (25%) and 9th worst wRC+ (91) facing righties over the last two weeks. It’s hard to ignore Dylan Cease ($8,900) against the Athletics despite his lackluster season. He’s still capable of racking up plenty of strikeouts. The Brewers are rarely striking out these days, but that hasn’t equated to much offensive production whatsoever. Milwaukee has the 3rd worst wRC+ (71) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, which bodes well for Yu Darvish ($8,500) facing them.

Of the lower-priced starters, Brady Singer ($6,900) could be an interesting play facing Seattle. He had a no-hitter working against them into the 7th inning 10 days ago, and they strike out at a very high rate. Brandon Pfaadt ($5,600) strung together his best start of the season last start against San Diego. He had five K’s across seven scoreless innings and now faces a struggling Cincinnati squad. They have the worst K% (29.1%) and 11th worst wRC+ (89) against right-handers over the past month.

 

Bats

 

Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batters props. Let’s find a few offenses worth stacking today.

It’s beginning to get a bit redundant to include them in this section every Friday, but the Braves offense is just that good. So is Logan Webb, but they just faced him the other day and tagged him for four runs in his six innings of work. Eddie Rosario ($4,300) is 4-7 with a double against Webb and is one of the better-value bats on Atlanta. Other solid options are Nicky Lopez ($3,200) and Marcell Ozuna ($4,600).

Fading Kyle Freeland against the Orioles looks pretty good too. He’s in the bottom 27th percentile in xFIP and xERA among starters after all. Baltimore has mashed left-handed pitching with a 119 wRC+ (9th best) since the start of July. Ryan Mountcastle ($4,500) is hitting like peak Barry Bonds against Southpaws this season with a 190 wRC+. Austin Hays ($3,800) and Jordan Westburg ($3,500) are solid bargain bats in the lineup to stack Mountcastle with.

Lastly, the Phillies profile nicely against Miles Mikolas and his fastball-heavy approach. He gave up seven runs and seven hits to the Mets last start and has a 6.16 ERA over his last six outings. The Phillies have the 3rd best wRC+ (132) against righties over the last two weeks, so they should be able to do damage against Mikolas. Bryce Harper ($5,900) is 5-12 with two homers against him, and Nick Castellanos ($4,900) is 4-17 with two dingers as well. They are both on the pricier end of things, but Harper could particularly be worth it with his recent form (1.223 OPS over his last 42 PAs). Bryson Stott ($4,300) and Jake Cave ($2,500) are a couple of more inexpensive bats in their lineup.

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