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Saturday brings the second Coors Field slate of the season. Expect to see plenty of Padres hitters as gamers will look to take aim at Kyle Freeland (25% CSW, 8.5% K-BB% in 2019), who struggled last year, to put it nicely, with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Tommy Pham. As per usual those Coors bats are priced at a premium so there’s some serious opportunity cost in stacking the Padres. And the Rockies, too, for that matter we’ll also get a susceptible matchup against the lefty Joey Lucchesi (27.9% CSW, 14.9% K-BB% in 2019). Our own Josiah DeBoer recently wrote up Lucchesi’s potential pitfalls.
Top SP: Jack Flaherty, STL ($9,500 DK, $10,300 FD) at MIL
Note that last night’s Cardinals game was postponed. At this point, I think it’s more than fair to say that no one really knows what is going on but provided the Cardinals return to action tonight and you’re looking to spend at SP, Jack Flaherty (30.2% CSW, 22.8% K-BB%) looks like an excellent choice. He was incredibly efficient in his debut for the season, allowing no walks and needing just 89 pitches to get through seven innings. He gets the Brewers, a tougher test than the Pirates certainly, but Flaherty, going by the DFS tools on Fade the Noise, is tied for the highest ceiling on the slate.
If the Cardinals game gets 86’d that vaults Tyler Glasnow (33% CSW, 27% K-BB in 2019) to the top of the board. He was fantastic in his first start, tallying nine strikeouts and 15 whiffs. The only real question mark with Glasnow is a suspect pitch count as he only went four innings on 72 pitches in his first start.
The other option in the top tier is Carlos Carrasco, who was fantastic in his debut tallying 10 Ks (34% CSW) through six innings. The only thing dinging Carrasco’s appeal today is an unfortunate matchup against the Twins on the road. If the Cardinals game does get postponed, it’ll be a tough call between Glasnow and Carrasco at the top. Note that Carrasco threw 87 pitches in his debut and is probably a better bet to go deeper in the game.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler Glasnow, TB ($9,300 DK, $9,800 FD) at BAL; Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($9,200 DK, $9,400 FD) at MIN.
Value SP: Tyler Chatwood, CHC ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD) vs PIT
I have to admit, I never really expected to be intrigued by Tyler Chatwood. But welcome to 2020, the year of surprises. Chatwood looked really impressive in his first start of the year against the Brewers getting eight Ks, including three off Christian Yelich, for a 30% CSW across six innings. He upped his cutter usage to 30% in his 2020 debut. That pitch was dynamic last season, earning a sizzling 46.6% whiff rate. We are, however, talking about a pitcher with a career 11.9% walk rate so there is absolutely risk here but also solid upside if he’s indeed figured something out. He’ll face a Pirates team who last year walked at the fourth-lowest rate in all of baseball, so this isn’t a bad matchup for Chatwood provided he can tiptoe around the suddenly immortal Colin Moran.
If you’re looking to stack the expensive Coors bats, you might want to consider Yusei Kikuchi. You may not have noticed him yet, considering his ugly opening line, but his velocity was up substantially as his fastball sat at just under 96 while touching 98 at times. That’s a huge improvement from last season. It’s not an easy spot against the A’s but he’s an interesting tournament play at a dirt-cheap price if you want to gamble on some potential growth.
Honorable Mention: Yusei Kikuchi (GPP), SEA ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD) vs OAK.
OF Aaron Judge, NYY ($4,600 DK, $4,300 FD) vs BOS
As mentioned earlier, the Coors bats, particularly on DraftKings, are priced at a premium. But if you’re looking for a hitter with an excellent ceiling at a far more reasonable price, Aaron Judge is worth mentioning. Zack Godley will open with what should be a bullpen game for the Red Sox and as is usually the case when they are at home against a suspect pitcher the Yankees boast one of the more impressive implied totals of the slate, currently sitting at just under six runs according to the DFS tools on FTN.
Honorable Mentions: Manny Machado, 3B ($5,100 DK, $3,800 FD) at COL; Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,500 DK, $4,100 FD) vs SD; Fernando Tatis Jr, SS ($6,100 DK, $4,100 FD) at COL; Michael Conforto, OF ($4, 900 DK, $3,000 FD) at ATL; Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4, 800 DK, $3,600 DK) vs. NYM.
3B Yoan Moncada, CWS ($4,400 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC.
The Chicago White Sox game could be a sneaky target for bats considering there are two suspect pitchers going here. The White Sox will face off against the righty Ronald Bolanos, who last season with the Padres showed suspect control with a 13.6% walk rate in just under 20 IP. Meanwhile, Yoan Moncada tallied a .391 wOBA and 148 wRC+ against RHP last season. The White Sox are an interesting stack to consider if you’re looking to be different in tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: Eloy Jimenez, OF ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) at KC; Jorge Soler, OF ($4,200 DK, $3,600 FD) vs CWS; Hunter Renfroe, OF ($4,400 DK, $2,900 FD) at BAL; Matt Chapman, 3B ($4,500 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. SEA; Gleyber Torres, SS ($4,400 DK, $3,400 FD) vs. Bos.
Value Batter: 1B Luke Voit, NYY ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) vs BOS
The Red Sox will be using Zack Godley as an opener of sorts tonight at Yankee Stadium. Godley was beyond awful last season, tallying a 4.2% K-BB% across 39 IP before being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks in August. It gives you an idea of how strapped for pitching the Red Sox are. Though, really this has the makings of more of a bullpen game as we can’t really expect Godley to pitch too long here. So, as mentioned earlier with Judge, the Yankees set up well this evening. Luke Voit (.369 xwOBA, 13.2% barrel rate in 2019) provides power upside hitting 5th or 6th and at a favorable price.
Honorable Mentions: Ty France, 2B/1B ($3,800 DK, $2,500 FD) at COL. Michael Brantley, OF ($2,900 DK) at LAA; Alex Verdugo, OF ($2,900 DK, $2,400 FD) at NYY; Brandon Nimmo, OF ($3,800 DK, $2,600 FD) at ATL; Andrew Benintendi, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,500 FD) at NYY; Paul DeJong, SS ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) at MIL; Josh Donaldson, 3B ($3,800 DK, $2,800) vs CLE; Tyler O’Neill OF ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at MIL; Yoenis Cespedes, OF ($2,600 FD) at ATL; Franmil Reyes, OF ($2,400 FD) at MIN; Stephen Piscotty, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,400 FD) vs. SEA.
Lineup Stack: Braves vs NYM (RHP Michael Wacha)
In case you missed it, there were 21 runs scored in last night’s Mets Braves game. Tonight the Braves will face the righty Michael Wacha (23.8% CSW, 8.7% K-BB% in 2019) who last year posted an anemic 18.5% K rate to go along with a 4.76 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 126.2 IP as a member of the Cardinals. The changeup-throwing Wacha has long shown reverse splits for his career and that could be a problem against the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and the red-hot Dansby Swanson. The other side of this game is interesting as well as the Mets will get to face a talented but highly erratic Touki Toussaint, who featured a 13.1% BB rate last season in 41.2 innings.
Honorable Mentions: NYY vs. BOS (Godley); COL vs. SD (Lucchesi); SD at COL (Freeland); CWS at KC (Bolanos); NYM at ATL (Toussaint).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)