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Top SP: Zac Gallen, SD ($9,400 DK, $10,000 FD) vs SEA
Fortune wasn’t on Zac Gallen’s side in his last outing as he allowed four runs in just five innings. He did, however, still record six strikeouts (35% CSW). It’s worth mentioning too that that was Gallen’s third time facing the Giants in four starts. Overall, Gallen has been fantastic this season with a 27.9% K rate, 20% K-BB rate, and a .249 wOBA (.289 xwOBA) allowed. The Mariners’ team wOBA of .317 vs RHP ranks 18th. This will be their first time seeing Gallen this season. Tonight, the Diamondbacks are strong favorites (-165) with the visiting Mariners having a very modest team total of three and a half runs.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8,700 DK, $9,300 FD) at MIL.
Value SP: Zach Plesac, CLE ($8,000 DK, $10,200 FD) at MIN
Zach Plesac looks like a very strong value play on DraftKings tonight, especially considering the lack of options. Overall, his K-BB% of 25.4% is the best on the board tonight. He was sharp in his last start going seven innings collecting four strikeouts (27% CSW) while issuing zero free passes. And most importantly, the pitch count was strong at 96. The Twins are still not an ideal matchup but they have regressed a bit offensively relative to last season — to be expected, given their record-setting pace then — making this a little less daunting. The Twins team total sits at a fairly modest four runs.
Justus Sheffield hasn’t been close to as strong as Plesac with just a 13.8% K-BB rate but he’s worth mentioning as a matchup play, as he gets a much easier task having to face a depleted Diamondbacks team that’s put up a meager .265 wOBA and 60 wRC+ against southpaws this season.
Honorable Mention: Justus Sheffield SEA ($7,700 DK, $8,600 FD) at ARI.
3B Anthony Rendon, LAA ($5,400 DK, $4,500 FD) at COL
For his career, Anthony Rendon, has a .386 wOBA and 142 wRC+ against southpaws. He’ll get an opportunity to face one in Kyle Freeland at Coors Field tonight. Freeland has pitched better this year but he’s still not missing any bats with just a 16.2% K rate and he’s allowed plenty of base runners as shown by his 1.36 WHIP. There is very little margin for error for pitchers like this at Coors. Over the past two seasons, Freeland has yielded a .370 wOBA to opposing RHB. And yes, Mike Trout might also be a good idea too.
SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD) vs LAA
We’re going to want a piece of this Rockies offense as the projections over at FTN have the Colorado team total at just under six runs. Jaime Barria has shown a nearly league-average K rate of 23% and we’ve seen him struggle quite a bit, looking back to last season’s 6.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Barria is a flyball pitcher who has shown very noticeable reverse splits the past two seasons, allowing a .393 wOBA to RHB. Trevor Story and his teammate Nolan Arenado jump off the page today.
Value Batter: OF Justin Upton, LAA ($3,000 DK, $3,400 FD) at COL
We’re always looking for potential value bats in the Coors Field game, and in that case, Justin Upton fits the bill, particularly on DraftKings. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against the lefty Kyle Freeland who has yielded a .370 wOBA to opposing RHB the past two seasons. Jo Adell at just $2,700 on DraftKings is a very enticing value as well. The Angels have an implied total of just under six and a half runs.
Honorable Mentions: Raimel Tapia, OF ($3,700 DK, $3,200 FD) vs LAA; Matt Thaiss, 3B/OF ($2,900 DK, $3,000 FD) at COL; Franmil Reyes, OF ($2,800 FD) at MIN; Nomar Mazara, OF ($3,200 DK, $2,300 FD) vs DET; Jo Adell, OF ($2,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at COL; Adalberto Mondesí, SS ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD) vs PIT.
Lineup Stack: White Sox vs Tigers (RHP Michael Fulmer)
The Coors game should feature plenty of runs on both sides, with each team having a projected total of well over six runs. At home this year, Freeland has posted an ERA of 4.50 while allowing a .369 wOBA those numbers shrink to 2.63 and .279 respectively when on the road. The Angels righties all project really well. And despite his struggles this season, Shohei Ohtani remains an excellent tournament play. If ever there were a day to squeeze in that Mike Trout guy. Barria has some really pronounced reverse splits which on paper bodes well for the the righties in the Colorado lineup.
Instead of the Coors game, though, we’ll focus on the White Sox in their matchup with Michael Fulmer. The righty Fulmer has reached the 60 pitch threshold in two of his last four turns so we should anticipate a similarly capped workload. Fulmer has shown a substantial loss in velocity since last we saw him before Tommy John Surgery and the results so far have been awful, as he’s allowed a .422 xwOBA while his xERA sits at 7.83. If the Tigers follow the same blueprint for Fulmer’s previous appearances, lefty Daniel Norris should be piggybacking here. And while Norris has pitched to a strong 18.8% K-BB this year, he’s also allowed a 47.6% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, we know the White Sox have absolutely thrashed LHP to the tune of a .390 team wOBA. This team is loaded with power the standouts this season being Eloy Jiménez (.392 xwOBA), José Abreu (.392 xwOBA), Tim Anderson (.368 xwOBA), and Luis Robert (.380 xwOBA). Meanwhile, Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal posted wOBA of .379 and .361 respectively last season. Given Fulmer’s struggles and Norris being at a platoon disadvantage it’s not hard imagine the White Sox stacking up some runs tonight.
Honorable Mentions: COL vs LAA (Barria); LAA at COL (Freeland); LAD vs HOU (Valdez).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)