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Top SP: Yu Darvish, CHC ($11,300 DK, $11,200 FD) vs CLE
What a year it has been for Yu Darvish as he’s managed a 1.77 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across 56 innings of work. Among all qualified starters he’s sixth with a 33.6% K rate and he has the ninth lowest walk rate of 5.1%. He leads tonight’s probable starters with a 28.5% K-BB%. This will be his first time facing the Indians this season who have been a a below-average offense against RHP with just a .305 team wOBA (24th).
If you’re looking to save a little for a top-flight SP, now might be the time to buy Jack Flaherty. He’s finally coming around as he got his pitch count up to 95 in his last start against the Tigers, where he managed six strikeouts (33% CSW) through five innings. We’ve been picking on the Brewers offense all season and their 26.4% team K rate against RHP. This will be his first time seeing them this year.
Honorable Mentions: Jack Flaherty, STL ($9,400 DK, $9,800 FD) at MIL.
Value SP: José Urquidy, HOU ($6,600 DK, $6,300 FD) vs TEX
Going back to last season, José Urquidy impressed with a 3.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 19.8% K-BB%. He’s only made two appearances this season so there is definitely some risk here, but you have to like the cheap price and that he threw 88 pitches in his last start. The key here is a great matchup against a reeling Rangers offense that’s managed a .285 team wOBA against RHP, second worst in baseball. The Astros are massive home favorites this evening (-213).
Another value option is Deivi García. The Yankees’ top pitching prospect has been incredibly impressive through his first three starts with a 25.7% K rate and trim 2.9% BB rate. His last start against these same Blue Jays was a good one as he went seven innings, allowing two runs and collecting six strikeouts (26% CSW). The Blue Jays are a significantly tougher matchup as they’ve managed a .326 team wOBA against RHP. They will, however, be down two key batters in Teoscar Hernández and Rowdy Tellez.
Honorable Mention: Deivi García NYY ($6,800 DK, $8,900 FD) vs TOR.
1B Matt Olson, OAK ($5,300 DK, $3,900 FD) at COL
We’ve got a game at Coors with German Marquez not on the mound. You know what that means. The Oakland A’s have the highest implied team total on the board at over six and a half runs. Despite a .195 batting average on the year for Matt Olson, he’s still managed a .369 xwOBA. He gets a favorable matchup against the right Antonio Senzatela who has yielded a .348 xwOBA this season and a .341 wOBA to lefty batters for his career. Olson should be a very popular play so keep that in mind for tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, OF ($5,600 DK, $3,900 FD) vs NYM; Trevor Story, SS ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD) vs COL; Alex Bregman, 3B ($5,100 DK, $3,500 FD) vs TEX.
OF George Springer, HOU ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD) vs TEX
Going by the projections over at FTN, we should be looking at Astros bats as they have an implied total of just under six runs. Kyle Cody has only made five appearances so far this season, but he’s shown some shaky control and could easily get into trouble against the Astros. George Springer hasn’t had last year’s favorable results but his xwOBA of .405 is nearly identical to last year’s .404.
Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD) at BAL; Ronald Acuña Jr./strong>, OF ($6,000 DK, $4,400 FD) at BAL, Freddie Freeman, 1B ($5,700 DK, $4,100 FD) at BAL; Anthony Rendon ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD) vs ARI.
Value Batter: OF DJ Stewart, BAL ($2,400 DK, $2,800 FD) vs ATL
The Braves are rolling with spot starter Huascar Ynoa for tonight’s game. In his 14 innings this year he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. So not great. We have to be interested in DJ Stewart given the bare bones price and exploitable match-up. He’s done nothing but hit home runs since becoming a part of the Orioles lineup. The power was evident in the minors as he managed a .257 ISO with Triple-A Norfolk last season.
Rookie Alec Bohm is another excellent value play. The Phillies’ big prospect has been very impressive so far with a .381 xwOBA and .314 xBA. We know Rick Porcello is nothing to be afraid of.
Madison Bumgarner has struggled mightily this year with a 13.7% K rate. Barring some sort of miraculous turnaround, he’s someone to pick on. Justin Upton is cheap enough and still carries the power upside to warrant consideration in tournaments. The same can be said for Jo Adell who is even cheaper on both major sites.
The other side of that game features another struggling pitcher in Julio Teherán. The veteran righty has had major problems missing bats this season with a 6.5% swinging strike rate. He’s also allowed a .396 wOBA to opposing lefty batters. With the Diamondbacks in full-blown evaluation mode, they’ve been giving regular at-bats to Josh Rojas at lead-off. He hasn’t done much here in the majors, but he’s shown some upside with a .410 wOBA and .276 ISO with Triple-A Round Rock last season. He’s very affordable on both major sites, as are Josh VanMeter and Daulton Varsho.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Upton, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) vs ARI; Josh Rojas, 2B ($3,200 DK, $2,000 FD) at LAA; Josh VanMeter, 2B/3B ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD) at LAA; J.D. Davis, OF ($2,600 FD) at PHI; Alec Bohm, 3B ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD) vs NYM; Daulton Varsho, C ($2,900 DK, $2,000 FD) at LAA; Jo Adell, OF ($2,800 DK, $2,400 FD) vs ARI.
Lineup Stack: Mets at Phillies (RHP Jake Arrieta)
As of this writing, the Orioles have yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game. We know what the Braves offense can do against questionable pitching. Just ask Jordan Yamamoto. The Braves are an excellent stack in all formats.
The game in Coors features Antonio Senzatela, he’s pitched better than we’ve been accustomed to with a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Still, we’re probably looking at best an average type pitcher who is over performing to a degree judging by his .348 xwOBA and 4.93 xERA. He’s still not missing any bats either with just a 14.8% K rate. This A’s offense though is a little banged up at the moment, having lost both Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty.
The other side of the Coors game features Sean Manaea. The tall lefty has a pretty modest K rate at a shade under 20%, but he’s done a fantastic job at limiting walks and has held batters to a .320 xwOBA. Nolan Arenado would normally be a good gamble, but he’s questionable for this game with a shoulder injury. Trevor Story (.359 xwOBA) is of course a superb play. The rest of this lineup is not entirely exciting. The Rockies have had a rather peculiar affinity for crusty veterans like Kevin Pillar and Matt Kemp lately. Garrett Hampson is always a worthwhile speed/power gamble provided he’s in the lineup.
The Yankees lineup is slowly returning to full strength. Tonight, they should be getting Gio Urshela back. They’ll be facing the righty Taijuan Walker, who’s most likely over performing a bit with a 2.95 ERA.
Let’s got to the Mets for our stack tonight. Once upon a time Jake Arrieta was a stalwart for the 2016 World Series Champion Cubs. Now, well, he’s not that guy anymore. This year he’s sitting at a 17.1% K rate with a 6.8% swinging K rate along with a .381 xwOBA, .314 xBA, and a 6.11 xERA. Yikes. Meanwhile, you have the Mets whose offense has been phenomenal this year. Against RHP, they’ve tallied a .358 team wOBA third best behind only the Braves and Padres. And their team wRC+ against RHP is the best in baseball at 128. Dominic Smith has emerged this season with a .400 xwOBA (top 10%). This Mets lineup features a bevy of upside bats with Michael Conforto (.403 xwOBA), Brandon Nimmo (.362 xwOBA), Robinson Cano (.378 xwOBA), J.D. Davis (.370 xwOBA), Jeff McNeil (.371 xwOBA), and Peter Alonso (.333 xwOBA). Also worth noting here that Phillies relievers have combined for a league worst 5.86 FIP and ERA of 7.27.
Honorable Mentions: NYY vs TOR (Walker); ATL at BAL (TBD); OAK at COL (Senzatela); LAD vs SD (Davies); HOU vs TEX (Cody).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)