The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The Minor League portion of the pitcher performance reports has been updated for the month of June. Dynasty value changes rapidly amongst Minor Leaguers. Managers are faced with the task of making sure to not drop players struggling too early while also not missing the boat on some of the fastest risers. Below I look at four Minor League pitchers who are seeing their dynasty value trend up and four who are trending in the wrong direction.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Recapping Last Month’s Risers and Fallers:
Noah Schultz– Schultz has continued to be a dominant presence on the mound over the past month. He has not allowed a single walk since his promotion to Double-A and owns a 1.72 ERA. His dynasty value is still rising.
Nolan McLean– The month of June has not been kind to McLean who has allowed four home runs in three starts and owns an ERA over 6. The two-way intrigue has kept his dynasty value inflated even if it has stagnated over the past month.
Brock Porter– Porter has remained on the developmental list for Texas trying to work through his struggles. He has not pitched in a game since April 23 and continues to slide down dynasty rankings.
Reggie Crawford– The Triple-A ERA looks sparkling for Crawford, but the walk rate tells a different story. Crawford is walking 20% of the batters he has faced in Triple-A which will hurt him at the Major League level.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Brandon Sproat– NYM
The Mets tried to draft Brandon Sproat in 2022 but failed to convince him to leave the University of Florida. Sproat returned to the Gators and made 19 starts in 2023 striking out 134 batters in just 106.1 innings. This was enough for the Mets to bump him up their boards into the second round where they finally were able to get him to sign. Dynasty managers were forced to wait until this season to see Sproat make his professional debut, but so far he has been well worth the wait.
The Mets started Sproat out in High-A where he made six appearances. While there, Sproat struck out over 32% of batters, finishing high High-A tenure with a 1.07 ERA. In just six appearances, the Mets had seen enough to send Sproat to Double-A where his success has continued. Through six starts there, he has a 2.27 ERA. He has continued to strike batters out at an impressive clip maintaining a strikeout rate north of 30% even after his promotion.
Sproat’s ability to induce strikeouts comes as no surprise to scouts. Sproat’s fastball sits comfortably in the high 90s with excellent arm-side run in on right-handed batters. He commands the pitch well up in the zone lighting up the eyes of hitters who cannot catch up to it. Sproat adds a little bit to the pitch when he feels necessary touching triple-digits at various points throughout games.
He possesses three secondary offerings to keep batters off balance. While the curveball is likely a below-average pitch, both the slider and changeup are downright filthy. His changeup dives away against lefties while the slider sweeps right out of the zone to get some silly swings against right-handed batters. This is the arsenal of a future Major League pitcher.
While the strikeouts have been fun to watch, improving control is what is really taking Sproat’s dynasty value to the next level. During his final collegiate season, Sproat walked 48 batters, the main reason he fell out of the first round. Inconsistent control worried some Major League scouts, but he already seems to be solving that issue. After walking five batters across 2.2 innings in his first appearances, Sproat has effectively limited the free passes. Since his promotion to Double-A, Sproat is walking just 6.1% of batters helping fuel his success. The Mets have already worked with Sproat to shorten his arm motion a tad and keep his hands in closer through his windup compared to his delivery in college. The results have been tremendous and are taking Sproat’s dynasty value to the next level.
The Mets have had several pitching prospects grab the spotlight in the past few months. Christian Scott has had his turn. Blade Tidwell generated some hype earlier this season. Now, it is time for the dynasty community to latch onto Brandon Sproat. From a pure stuff standpoint, Sproat has what it takes to turn into a top 20 pitcher for fantasy managers. If these improved walk rates stick, Sproat will soar up dynasty rankings. He is already going to crack my top 100 and could continue rising higher as the season moves along. Get in on him now while you still can. This is a pitching prospect you do not want to miss.
Justin Wrobleski- LAD
Justin Wrobleski is the largest riser in my rankings over the past month. The Dodgers’ 11th-round pick from 2021 is off to a fantastic start to the season and just made his Triple-A debut last weekend. Coming off a fine sophomore season last year, Wrobleski was viewed as just that; fine. His strikeout rate was nothing to write home about and he was a bit old for the levels he was pitching at. He was viewed behind several other pitching prospects in the Dodgers’ system, but all of that is changing quickly. Wrobleski is garnering more attention from the dynasty community and could be turning into a star before our eyes.
Wrobleski’s older age (can we even call a 23-year-old old?) is no fault of his own. Wrobleski was forced to undergo Tommy John Surgery in 2021 which delayed his professional debut. Once he returned toward the end of 2022, the Dodgers were cautious with the lefty having him throw only 21.2 innings. He upped his inning total to 102 last year and as already mentioned has had no trouble working his way through the Dodgers’ system this season.
The best analysis comes from getting actual looks at prospects which is exactly what has led to Wrobleski flying up my rankings. Despite pedestrian strikeout rates, there is plenty to love with Wrobleski’s arsenal. Wrobleski’s fastball velocity has continued increasing since being drafted. He sat closer to 90 mph in college, 93 in his first season back, and is effortlessly touching 98 mph now. Wrobleski’s breakout is about more than just velocity. His arm action creates incredible deception with a slider that dives down and away looking virtually unhittable. He has an excellent feel for his changeup as well to keep righties off balance.
Justin Wrobleski with an excellent Double-A debut tonight:
5.0 IP
3 H
1 ER
1 BB
6 K
70 P / 47 SWrobleski, my No. 12 #Dodgers prospect, could be a big breakout candidate this season pic.twitter.com/qaynL31Ads
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) April 6, 2024
Not to mention, Wrobleski looked excellent in his Triple-A debut. Pitching in the PCL environment is no easy task, but Wrobleski struck out 11 batters across five innings.
There are certain teams that always have prospects pop up. The Dodgers seem to always be leading the way through elite player development. While not viewed as a big-time prospect on draft day, Wrobleski is turning into something special. If he is still on your dynasty waiver-wire go get him now. Pretty soon, he could even find himself on the weekly Stash List articles and become redraft relevant.
Honorable Mentions:
Zebby Matthews – MIN
Zebby Matthews was an honorable mention last month and his dynasty value continues to rise. Matthews has a strong argument to be considered the best Minor League pitcher through the first two-plus months of the season. His strike-throwing ability is impeccable with great feel for all of his pitches. Do not let this fool you into thinking Matthews is just a control specialist. No, no, no. Matthews has plus stuff that is resulting in high strikeout rates. His four-seam now sits in the mid to upper 90s and both of his breaking pitches are plus offerings. Matthews could finish the season as baseball’s top-ranked pitching prospect.
Zebby Matthews retired the last 13 batters he faced to end the game yesterday and secure the W for the @WindSurgeICT🔋
5 IP / 1 H / 0 R / 1 BB / 6 K
This season, his average FB velo is 96 MPH and he has issued a total of three (3) walks in 234 batters faced 🤯#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/b1tlcHf7Y0
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 22, 2024
Hayden Birdsong– SFG
The closer a prospect gets to the Major Leagues, the more their dynasty value rises. That is exactly what we are seeing happen with Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong was the Giants’ sixth round pick back in 2022 and has quickly worked his way through the Minor Leagues. After striking out 30.7% of batters with a 2.05 ERA in Double-A, the team decided to promote him up to Triple-A. Birdsong struck out seven across four innings in his debut catching the eye of dynasty managers. His fastball is undoubtedly a plus offering sitting in the upper 90s with plus movement. The rest of his arsenal is inconsistent and will be the key to Birdsong turning into a reliable fantasy asset. For now, Birdsong’s name is popping up more and more often in dynasty circles as he approaches his Major League debut.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Mick Abel– PHI
Sigh. Mick Abel leads the way for this month’s dynasty fallers. Abel has been viewed as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball since the Phillies drafted him 15th overall in the 2020 draft. Despite inconsistent results, optimism around Abel’s future value remained heading into 2024.
The Phillies sent Abel to Triple-A where he finished last season. Things have not gone as Abel or the team hoped. Through 11 starts, Abel owns a 6.93 ERA. Triple-A hitters are hitting basically everything Abel throws. Batters are hitting .264 off of his four-seamer, .313 off of the curveball, .500 off of his sinker, and .476 off of the changeup.
Walks continue to be an issue for Abel. His walk rate has been above 10% at every level each season of his career. In recent years, his walk rate has sat closer to 12%. This year, it is 14.2%. Even with the high walk rate, Abel’s upside has always been apparent through his strikeout rate. After sitting consistently around 27%, Abel’s strikeout rate has plummeted down to 18.8% this season. The strikeout rate is bad, the walk rate is bad, but what does Pitcher List’s new Minor League Pitch Type Cards say about his stuff?
For starters, the four-seam fastball grades out poorly. Despite throwing the pitch over 50% of the time, Abel’s fastball comes with below-average velocity and below-average movement. The PLV on this pitch is just 4.40. His primary breaking pitch (his slider) is far and away his best offering. The pitch takes more of a gyro shape and is the only one of his pitches with an above-average PLV. The PLV on his curveball sits at 4.10, 4.80 on the sinker, and 4.75 on his changeup. Overall, his arsenal grades out as below average which is never a good combination considering his poor control.
Despite his draft pedigree and high ranking on many prospect lists, Abel is seeing his dynasty value fall fast. Abel is looking less and less like a front-of-the-line starter and more and more like a future streaming option. Dynasty managers entered the season hopeful they would see him make his Major League debut this season but he is giving the Phillies no reason to promote him. At this point, you have to wonder if a trip to the developmental list, a la Jack Leiter last season, could be in store for Abel if his struggles continue.
Robby Snelling– SDP
Victory laps never work out well. That being said, I am going to victory lap over my friend and colleague Martin Sekulski on this one. Snelling was one of the most hyped pitching prospects in baseball throughout this past off-season. After dominating Low and High-A at just 19 years old, the excitement was understandable. However, some notable issues in Snelling’s profile made me skeptical his success was sustainable. Myself and Martin went head to head in a prospect battle article with Snelling being one of the highlighted players. If you want to se why I was down on Snelling entering the season, you can check that out here.
Snelling’s season did start as well as anybody could have hoped. Through three outings, Snelling owned a 1.98 ERA, never surrendering more than one run in a game. This is when things took a turn for the worse. In nine starts since, Snelling’s ERA has ballooned to 7.09. He is not just getting unlucky either as his FIP sits up at 6.07. Everything in Snelling’s profile looks disastrous. His strikeout rate is down to 15.9%, his walk rate is up to 8.7%, and he has allowed 10 home runs in those nine games.
This is not to say that Snelling has not still shown flashes. On May 17, Snelling fired six innings of one-run ball striking out seven and not allowing a single free pass. What this is saying is that Snelling is much more of a work in progress than he is the next pitching phenom. He has allowed at least six runs in three of his previous five starts. Not that we modern folk care about win-loss records, but Snelling is 1-7 on the season.
My biggest fear for Snelling would be how he has handled right-handed batters. Primarily a two-pitch guy, Snelling lacks a go-to pitch to get the swing and miss against righties. Righties have certainly been a problem for Snelling this year hitting .289/.359/.497 off of him. The surprising part is that lefties are finding even more success. The sample size is small, but lefties are slashing .322/.379/.644 against Snelling this season. His profile is designed to neutralize lefties. If he is not even doing that this year, dynasty managers have a serious issue.
After ranking inside of the top 50 on many prospect lists entering the season, Snelling’s dynasty value is certainly falling. Still only 20-years-old, there is plenty of time for Snelling to right the ship, but it is going to be a long process. He still needs to develop a true third pitch and he needs to solve his recent command issues.
Honorable Mentions:
Owen Murphy– ATL
Injuries stink. Owen Murphy was one of the biggest breakouts among pitching prospects this season. He was dominating batters showing off increased velocity and filthy secondary offerings. Unfortunately, this is the year of the injury for pitchers and Murphy is the latest victim. Forced to undergo Tommy John Surgery, there is a possibility we do not see Murphy back on a professional mound until 2026. While there is still plenty of optimism, this pause in development has drained Murphy’s dynasty value. After rising steadily throughout the first couple of months, Murphy will fall outside of the top 100 in the next update of my top prospects for dynasty leagues.
Wikelman Gonzalez– BOS
Wikelman Gonzalez was one of my 2023 breakout prospect picks so including him in the fallers section of this article hurts. After his 2023 season got off to a rough start, Gonzalez settled in posting a 2.74 ERA across his final 14 starts. Unfortunately his strong end to last season has not carried over this year. 2024 has been disastrous for Gonzalez who owns a 7.58 ERA through his first 11 appearances. Control continues to be the biggest problem for Gonzalez who is walking over 14% of the batters he faces. His strikeout rate also sits at the lowest mark of his career. While Gonzalez still possess plus stuff, it is becoming difficult to envision him ever turning into a reliable starter at the Major League level. Now 22, Gonzalez’s dynasty value continues to head in the wrong direction.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire