Every draft season, we see plenty of sleepers and busts in each position. While fantasy baseball is not won or lost in the draft, nailing it and grabbing value, especially with later draft picks, can really get you on the road to victory.
By definition, a sleeper is a player who is likely to outperform their average draft position. Oftentimes, we can determine these using underlying numbers, future projectors, and through analysis of constantly changing environments. A bust is, in essence, the opposite. A player drafted high who doesn’t return the investment. Similar to sleepers, our goal is to use all the tools in the toolbox to project which players should be on our avoid list.
Outfield is always a fun position in fantasy. You usually get between three and five of them to work with, and in most leagues, it’s flexible as to which exact position they take up. There really is a variety of available talents in the field, from bomb-hitting sluggers like Kyle Schwarber to shifty contact hitters like Steven Kwan. Also, just due to the fact that there are more outfield jobs than in any other fantasy hitting position, there are likely going to be more outfielders moving up and down from Triple-A to the big leagues. With that said, let’s talk about some of the guys you should draft and some of the ones you should avoid.
OUTFIELD SLEEPERS
Jac Caglianone – KCR
It was a bit of a rough debut for Jac Caglianone, as the former two-way player found himself getting some of the worst results in the sport in the 62 games he suited up for the Royals. It was a disappointment for sure, especially considering managers in FAAB leagues likely drained their wallets to pick him up.
With that said, there is plenty of reason to think he can have a good sophomore season. The jitters are out, and now he can go out and ball as an outfielder for a Royals team that hopes to bounce back and perhaps compete for the crown of their division. Thus far in Spring Training, in a (very) limited sample size, he has looked like a new man, smashing a 460-foot bomb last week to prove that perhaps, he may be the real deal.
Caglianone’s biggest strength is his power. When he makes solid contact, spectators are in for a treat, as he has hit multiple 460+ foot shots so far (and they honestly look like they go even further). This is largely the result of his insane bat speed, which would’ve given him the fifth-best mark in baseball if he qualified last season. Sometimes, power hitters can struggle in Kansas City, though luckily for Caglianone and co., the Royals have moved the outfield fences in a bit and reduced their height. This proves to be a golden opportunity for the Royals, as if they can get production from the younger guys down the lineup, they can be a postseason contender. Your fantasy teams can also be postseason contenders if Caglianone proves to be worthy of his prospect pedigree.
Dylan Beavers – BAL
Once you get past the disappointment that Dylan Beavers didn’t play for Oregon State, he becomes a really intriguing player to consider rostering.
Beavers is a highly-rated prospect who broke onto the scene last year and gave fans and fantasy managers some really productive plate appearances. The batting average was a bit rough, but he flashed home run potential and found himself on base quite a bit, due to exceptional plate discipline. Beavers’ best feature is perhaps his excellent eye, which allowed him to get on base at a .375 clip. In the rare on-base percentage leagues, Beavers is a player that you should be grabbing. But even in standard leagues, he brings a lot to the table. While the average did not impress, it very well could improve, especially considering his whiff rate is relatively average despite the high strikeout rate. While he didn’t run very aggressively in his cup of coffee last year, he has also shown impressive skill as a base stealer, utilizing his excellent sprint speed to nab bags at an efficient rate.
Beavers hasn’t seen too much time against left-handed pitching in the big leagues thus far, though he has shown potential against them in the minors. There is a possible everyday player here, one who can snag that right field role for an Orioles team looking to rebound from a disappointing 2025.
Evan Carter – TEX
Remember Evan Carter?
The 2023 Rangers postseason (and late regular season) hero has come up short since his breakout run. He officially graduated in 2024 as one of the top graduates of the prospect class, being viewed as somewhat of a sure thing due to his meteoric rise and October heroics. Unfortunately, he’s missed tons of time and hasn’t shown those flashes that we expected to see from him, but there are a few bits of context that make him worth grabbing as a potential very late round flyer.
The first thing about Carter that is surprising for some is that he is still 23 years old. It’s crazy to think that he burst on the scene having freshly turned 20, but he now has experience playing in three seasons, while most of his age cohort are just getting called up now.
Carter has also seen some improvements to his game. His strikeout rate has dropped drastically, curbing a concern that many had about him. While it remains to be seen if he can keep it under 20% in a larger sample size (doubtful given his tendency to swing and miss still), it represents a step in the right direction and an improvement over the 32% clip he had two years ago. While he isn’t walking as much as he used to, he still has a great eye at the plate, which makes me think that it’s inevitable that the on-base percentage goes up. Carter is also utilizing his legs a lot more now, leveraging his excellent sprint speed into stolen bases.
My best guess with Carter is that he becomes a valuable bounce-back piece who finally proves himself to be a valuable player for both his real-world team and your fantasy teams.
OUTFIELD BUSTS
Teoscar Hernández – LAD
I’m sure that Teoscar Hernández ultimately has no regrets over how last season ended for him; he went home with another ring. Who might have regrets, though, are the fantasy managers who drafted him, wanting production.
Yet, despite a rough year, Hernández still hasn’t fallen too much in fantasy draft boards. He gets a huge boost from being a member of the Dodgers, a team that is basically The Avengers at the plate (and on the mound, and in the field too). This boosts his ability to get RBI, his main role for the Dodgers. As Hernández gets older, however, I think we are going to start to see a more linear downfall in production. He’s been a streaky guy season-to-season, and oftentimes, his ranking will reflect that. This time, though, he does seem higher ranked than what his 2025 would indicate, again because he’s surrounded by Dodgers stars in the lineup (one that he will likely be moving further down due to Kyle Tucker).
Hernández’s numbers were down in nearly every category last year. The batting average was down, the home runs were down, and perhaps most concerning of all, the on-base percentage reached a putrid 0.284. Some of this can be attributed to a drop-off in plate discipline. He was never the most patient hitter, but his first year with the Dodgers saw him being a bit more selective. In 2025, he went back to his free-swinging ways, and it resulted in a season where he looked worse as the year went on.
Oneil Cruz – PIT
I get the potential with Oneil Cruz, I really do. He is a freak athlete, hitting the ball harder than anybody in the sport. He is also an incredibly talented baserunner, utilizing ridiculous sprint speed for a guy his size to steal bags left and right. Yet, I just can’t do it, at least anywhere near the projected placements of Cruz.
Cruz has been one of the worst players at making contact his entire career. What is elite power if you can’t use it? How can you make the most out of excellent baserunning when you are rarely on base? We especially saw a drop-off in his abilities throughout the year, with his power becoming less apparent and his decisions continuing to worsen (despite the decent walk rate) as we headed into the fall.
Cruz isn’t going to be going in the third round as he did in lots of leagues last year, as most managers probably wouldn’t be able to stomach a 90 wRC+ hitter going that early. Still, the sheer power and speed will tempt many, but the risk to your ratios is too great, so we have to recommend you stay away.
