In this day and age of baseball, shortstop no longer belongs to glove-first guys destined to hit in the bottom third of their team’s lineup. Now, the position is home to some of the most prodigious real-life and fantasy talents in the sport, from young stars (Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz, and Gunnar Henderson) to established veterans potentially headed to Cooperstown one day (Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and now, Mookie Betts).
As a result, it has become increasingly important to lock up a good shortstop or two for your fantasy teams. Last year, according to Fangraphs’ earned auction value, there were 13 shortstops worth $10 or more in standard 12-team formats. No other infield position had more than 10 such players, and second base only had six, so those of you in leagues with a middle infield (MI) spot need to have a strong knowledge of the landscape at shortstop this year. With that in mind, here are four guys at the position I am fading this year at their February RotoWire Online Championship average draft position (ADP). As of February 18, there have been 17 drafts in this 12-team, two-catcher rotisserie format.
1. Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS7, ADP 37.6)
Cruz will be the Pirates’ Opening Day centerfielder this year after he was moved to the position in the second half of 2024, but he will maintain dual SS/OF eligibility in 2025. He offers a tantalizing power-speed blend that comes in a physically imposing, 6’7″ package. Cruz has played in parts of four big league seasons, but last year was his first full one. He slashed .259/.324/.449 in 599 PA with 72 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, and 22 SB. This netted him a 10th-place finish at the position.
I’m sure that the positional flexibility is pumping up Cruz’s price at least a little bit, but drafters targeting him here basically need Cruz to have a breakout season, specifically in the power department, to return value. He went right around pick 40 last year and didn’t even finish in the top 40 among hitters despite playing in 90% of his team’s games. Cruz could tap into more power if he leveraged his excellent barrel rate (15.2% in ’24, 97th percentile) and began lifting the ball more, as his launch angle and flyball rate both rank in the bottom 25% of the league. Even still, he will never be a batting average asset (.250 career) due to poor contact skills (66% in ’24, 7th percentile) and a large strike zone that have resulted in a 31.6% career K%.
Lastly, the Pirates also failed to add any above-average hitters in the offseason (sorry, Tommy Pham and Adam Frazier), and PECOTA projects them for 669 runs this season, the worst in the NL Central and tied for 8th-worst in MLB. Given the poor lineup context and injury risk, I just don’t see enough paths to a top-40 season to confidently spend this early of a pick on Cruz. I would happily sacrifice the speed and opt for Corey Seager about 10 picks later (ADP 47.1).
2. Willy Adames (SFG, SS10, ADP 92.9)
Adames had a fantastic walk year with Milwaukee last season, slashing .251/.331/.462 with 93 R, 32 HR, 112 RBI, and 21 SB. He cashed in this offseason, inking a 7-year deal worth $182 million to be a franchise cornerstone for the Giants. Given that he finished as SS5 last year and is going as SS10 this year, drafters are not fully buying Adames’ 2024 line. They shouldn’t; he set career highs in every fantasy counting stat, not to mention games played (161) and PA (688).
Similarly to Cruz, Adames is going to suffer from a poor lineup context, but he also faces the added obstacle of a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. San Francisco’s Oracle Park ranks dead last for home runs in MLB’s single-year and three-year rolling park factors, and PECOTA has the Giants projected to score 661 runs, the fourth-worst in MLB. While Statcast’s xHR (expected home runs) metric suggests that Adames would have still had 31 homers in Oracle Park last year, it finds that he would only have 121 career long balls if he had played all his games at the stadium compared to the 152 he actually has. In San Francisco, I think the absolute power ceiling for Adames is 30 HR, with 24-26 a more realistic expectation.
An expected regression in the power department will cause Adames’ counting stats to fall, and while he stole 21 bags last year, this almost doubled his career total. I see Adames as a positive contributor in all categories besides batting average (.248 career), and while I would prefer him to Cruz at their current costs, he doesn’t excel in any specific category. Instead of drafting Adames, I would opt for someone like Joe Ryan or Seiya Suzuki and target multiple shortstops going outside the top 120 but before pick 200 like Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, and Dansby Swanson.
3. Xavier Edwards (MIA, SS15, ADP 150.1)
I know that we are continuing to get sharper as a fantasy baseball community because someone like Xavier Edwards probably would have gone inside the top 100 just a few years ago. Edwards is coming off of a season where he hit .328 with 31 SB in 303 PA with 39 R, 1 HR, and 26 RBI. On the bright side, Edwards is entrenched in Miami as the everyday shortstop and leadoff man due to a lack of viable alternatives. Unfortunately, PECOTA projects the Marlins to have the worst offense in the league this season at 614 runs. Aside from the Marlins, only the White Sox (627) and Rockies (625) are projected to score below 650. In such a poor lineup and with no power to speak of (career minor league ISO below .100), Edwards is limited to a two-category contributor (AVG and SB) at best because even if he gets on base a lot, the Marlins are going to struggle to bring him in.
I also have some questions about Edwards’ hit tool, which needs to be elite, not just good, for him to be successful as a hitter and fantasy player. Based on his profile, you might be tempted to think of him as Luis Arraez with speed, but that would be misguided. Edwards has good plate discipline, far better than Arraez, but he lacks the superlative contact skills that make Arraez the best singles hitter in the sport right now. Last year, Edwards ran a BABIP of .398, which is unsustainably high even for a groundball/line drive hitter with his speed. According to our PL player pages, Edwards should have had a .306 xBABIP, which still would’ve placed him in the 80th percentile. Our data also indicates that he outperformed both his xAVG (.328 vs .255) and xwOBA (.359 vs. .296) by more than 60 points. While I think that is a little pessimistic, I don’t expect Edwards to hit over .285, and his stolen base opportunities will suffer as a result. I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Edwards unless he falls to pick 200 and I already have another shortstop rostered.
4. Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS, SS20, ADP 202.7)
Rafaela was a versatile piece for both the Red Sox and fantasy managers in 2024, as he split his time between SS and CF over 152 games. He slashed .246/.274/.390 with 70 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, and 19 SB. While those numbers are pretty pedestrian, Rafaela was super useful for the first four months of the season (12 HR, 15 SB) before completely falling off in August and September. Rafaela will mostly play centerfield this year assuming Trevor Story stays healthy, which admittedly is no guarantee.
I worry about Rafaela’s ability to maintain an everyday role because he’s just not a good real-life hitter; his career wRC+ is 79. A lot of his offensive struggles can be attributed to atrocious plate discipline. Last season, he ranked in the 10th percentile or lower in all of the following metrics: BB% (2.6%, 1st percentile), xwOBA (.263, 8th), O-Swing (48.4%, 0!), and SwStr% (20.4%, 1). A hitter who chases and swings and misses more than almost anybody needs to be elite in all other aspects to play everyday. Rafaela is good on the field and the base paths, but it doesn’t make up for his woes at the plate. A drastic change is needed if he wants to live up to his top-100 prospect pedigree.
Rafaela may provide some power-speed utility when he is playing everyday, but he’s not going to bat any higher than 8th in a healthy Red Sox lineup and could face some stiff competition with the impending promotions of Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. He is a decent late-round flier in shallower leagues because of the positional flexibility, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable having him in my starting lineup.