Shortstop is one of the most athletic position groups in baseball, from the best players on Little League teams to top picks in the MLB Draft each summer. As a result, fantasy managers have a deep pool of options that can contribute to multiple categories, even in the later rounds. Thirteen SS are taken in the top 103 picks on average, according to NFBC’s ADP, meaning every team typically has its starting SS by the end of the 9th round. This combination of athleticism and depth creates ample opportunity for managers to take big risks in the draft, as viable options remain after those top thirteen options are off the board.
Every pick in the draft carries some risk. Instead of shying away, it’s best to balance that risk as much as possible. You can be much more confident pulling the trigger on a boom-or-bust option (think Ronald Acuña coming off another major knee surgery before 2025) if you have reliable production available later with a higher floor. Alternatively, the inverse is an attractive strategy, selecting an elite option you can count on and targeting a Top 10 prospect, like JJ Wetherholt or Konnor Griffin, as a late-round sleeper. Both are worth monitoring throughout the Spring and could shoot up boards as we approach Opening Day and their roles solidify. Either strategy has the same core concept in mind:
Maximize the upside, mitigate the downside.
Sleepers
Which reality about Betts do you choose to believe? His best days are behind him at age 33? Or that the 20 pounds he lost from a stomach illness in March set him up for failure? Reality may be somewhere in between:
It seems that the illness impacted the quiet first half. His strikeout rate (10.3%) remained excellent, and his walk rate (9.2%) took a slight dip in 2025 from his career 10.6% average, but the power recovered. Betts remains an excellent defensive SS, hitting atop one of the best lineups in the league, giving him ample opportunity to both drive in and score runs in an everyday role. There is some slight concern that he attempted only one stolen base from 8/5 onward, which may continue into 2026. However, this is a former MVP who has been taken in the first or second round annually for the past 6-7 seasons and is currently available in the 5th round. He’s shown tremendous durability, logging at least 500 PAs in every season in his career as a full-time starter (except the shortened 2020 year).
Betts could be showing some decline, but not nearly enough to justify being taken outside the elite options at his position as the 7th SS by ADP. He finished 2025 as the 9th-best SS in points leagues in arguably his career-worst season, with little evidence to suggest it’s become his new normal. Similar production in 2026 won’t doom you at his current price, and the return to prior form is not only realistic after a healthy offseason but also too tempting to pass on.
Entering his age-32 season, Seager is still one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s been in the top 10% in Hard-Hit%, xwOBA, and xBA in each of the past three seasons, and added BB% to that list in 2025 as opposing teams pitched around him more due to a struggling Rangers lineup. Seager has struggled to stay on the field in recent seasons, missing 142 games over the past three seasons combined. Last year, the culprit was a short IL stint for a hamstring strain in May and then an appendectomy in late August, with the Rangers shutting him down as they fell out of postseason contention down the stretch.
Seager’s inclusion here is, in effect, a strategy proposition. He has an MVP-caliber ceiling if he can stay on the field. But there’s nothing to suggest he should be available this deep into a draft. Yordan Alvarez, another injury-prone hitter who can significantly contribute to every category except stolen bases, is going 60 picks earlier than Seager. The potential risks of this move can be further reduced by investing in a lower ceiling, but reliable backup, such as Dansby Swanson or…
Lopez began 2025 as the starting 2B for the Marlins, but took over at SS, where he solidified an everyday role, carrying dual eligibility at the middle infield positions to 2026. Hitting in the middle of the order, Lopez put together a 15 HR and 15 SB season, which could have been even better if you look at his expected stats from last year, where he was one of the unluckiest among qualified hitters in 2025 in both batting average and wOBA.
In a tier where most options have a single-category benefit, such as power with Colston Montgomery, or average with Jacob Wilson, Lopez presents a versatile backup or deep league option that has realistic potential for a 15-20 season without sacrificing batting average. His 13.8% strikeout rate and defensive ability keep his floor high, especially in points leagues. Lopez is entering 2026 at 27 years old, so there is little concern of injury or decline. For managers who take a risk earlier at the position, or perhaps punt on a weaker position like 2B, Lopez is a fine option to fall back on, and could be a difference-maker in deeper leagues. He’s currently the 19th SS and 14th 2B overall by ADP, a late-round pick in 12-team leagues.
Busts
After playing in just 163 games across his first three seasons for Boston, Story showed us what a healthy season can look like at this point in his career, a 25 HR-31 SB campaign at 32 years old. So why is he on the Busts list? Isn’t the idea supposed to be to chase high ceiling players? Yes, but there’s a long list of concerns Story would have to overcome to repeat his 2025 performance.
Injury is still a threat for Story, especially as he gets older at a physically demanding defensive position. The Red Sox front office has been public about improving their infield defense, an area where Story is declining, and could threaten everyday playing time should he fall into a slump. His high K% (26.9) and low BB% (5.0) limit counting stats, could result in extended cold spells, and hurt his value in OBP leagues. All together, it’s a risky profile. Blind resume time! Which middle infielder would you pick based on 2026 The Bat X projections?
Player A: .249 BA, 21 HR, 21 SB (ADP: 103)
Player B: .234 BA, 29 HR, 11 SB (ADP: 125)
Player C: .272 BA, 17 HR, 17 SB (ADP: 94)
Answer sheet: A) Story, B) Willy Adames, and C) Jeremy Peña. Adames is available 2 rounds later than Story but comes with more than double the BB% (11.7), trading some speed for better offensive consistency. And for those looking for a more balanced profile, Peña can be had a round earlier with a better average to boot. Story’s upside is still worth chasing in SB-premium leagues, but in standard formats, it’s better to look elsewhere at SS in the middle rounds.
For those desperate to up their batting average, Wilson seems like the perfect fit. He hit .311 last season, struck out only 7.5% of the time, an elite mark, and even chipped in with 13 HR as well, something other average-specialists like Luis Arraez can’t replicate. Beyond his impact on those two categories, there’s little else of promise for managers. The 5.2% BB% hurts his value in OBP leagues; he’s not a big threat on the basepaths (5 SB in 2025), and his everyday role might not be guaranteed. MLB’s preseason #4 prospect Leo De Vries was acquired at last year’s deadline in the Mason Miller deal with San Diego. Brent Rooker occupies the DH spot, so someone will have to give way for De Vries when the Athletics deem him ready.
Factoring in those considerations, Wilson is a pricey choice for managers looking to boost their team’s average. His ADP currently sits around 170, according to NFBC, one round later than Chandler Simpson, the speedy outfielder who stole 44 bags in 109 games, giving you a difference maker in another category on top of a .295 average. In fact, you can get a very similar profile to Wilson outside of the Top 250. Brendan Donovan hit for an expected .296 BA (compared to .300 for Wilson), a 13% strikeout rate, and 10 HR in 118 games at the much thinner 2B position group for fantasy managers. Wilson should be ignored until the late rounds in all but the deepest of leagues.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare
