Welcome to the Waiver Wire Picks, our daily fantasy baseball article that looks at the best players you should be adding to your rosters. We’ll look at the players that are likely to be available in most leagues, as well as some deep league waiver wire options. We’ll also look at the most-added players in fantasy baseball across the major sites and tell you which players to add and which to leave on the wire.
Top Priority Players to Add
JJ Bleday (CIN) – OF (ESPN 29.6%, Yahoo 37%)
Bleday has been incredible in 17 games since joining the Reds in late April. Bleday is slashing .345/.465/.776 with six homers in only 71 plate appearances and has ensconced himself in the heart of the Reds lineup. A key factor for Bleday’s value going forward is that the Reds have been playing him against lefties as well, with Bleday DHing and hitting 5th against Foster Griffin and the Nationals on Thursday. The underlying numbers are exciting for Bleday, too. Bleday is swinging 3.2 MPH harder this season, at a similar speed to players like Drake Baldwin and Jorge Soler. The faster swing has led to harder contact, with Bleday averaging nearly 94 MPH exit velocity on his batted balls and barreling 14.6% of them. Bleday’s also improved his chase rate, reducing it by 4 percentage points to a very strong 20.9% while increasing his zone swing rate by 4 percentage points to 67.6%. PLV Decision Value rates him as one standard deviation above league average in swing decisions, while he’s maintained his typical strong contact rates. While I’d expect his strikeout rate to creep closer to his career norms in the low 20% range and his BABIP to fall off his current .333, his new swing speed and contact quality mean you should take the over on his rest-of-season projections.
Carlos Cortes (ATH) – OF (Yahoo – 16%)
Cortes has maintained his role in the lineup after the return of Brent Rooker, as the A’s are willing to accept some problematic outfield defense in exchange for additional offense. Cortes has combined strong plate discipline (23.7% chase rate, 67.6% zone swing rate) with excellent contact ability (70.9% out of zone, 86.3% in zone). The power has shown up so far with a .212 ISO and four homers despite a 6.1 degree launch angle and 50% groundball rate. Neither of those is typical for Cortes. His minor league groundball rates hovered around 35-38%, and his average launch angle in limited Triple-A and major league data was around 16%. With the weather warming up in Sacramento, if Cortes manages to elevate as he has in the past, there could be a big power spike coming.
The main danger for Cortes going forward will be opportunity. With Denzel Clarke still on the IL, it’s unclear what the A’s will do when he returns. Henry Bolte and Lawrence Butler have been the A’s most recent center fielders. Butler isn’t a strong defender in center and has really struggled this year, but he also signed a long-term contract before last season, so his lineup spot is probably safe. Clarke had a cold start before hitting the IL, so it’s really a question of how much the A’s are willing to sacrifice with poor defense at two outfield positions in exchange for getting Cortes’ bat into the lineup.
Yahoo and ESPN Most Added Players
ESPN managers have jumped on JJ Bleday and several streaming starters this week. Bleday was mentioned above as a priority add, and ESPN managers agree. The starters are a mixed bag. Nick Martinez is off to an incredible surface-level start with a 1.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4 wins in his first 8 starts. He’s also striking out only 16% of batters, below even his low career rate. Martinez has also cut his walk rate to 5.2%, but a 10.9% K-BB rate is still poor. He’s doing an excellent job of managing contact, but the 90% strand rate won’t continue all season. Still, he’s pitching in a pitcher-friendly park against a Marlins offense that doesn’t inspire confidence despite their improvements this year. He might be a high-3s or low-4s ERA starter with a decent WHIP going forward, but this is still a tasty matchup.
Logan Henderson is the polar opposite of Martinez, striking out 32.7% of batters and walking only 4.1%, but not dominating, thanks in part to a 56.6% strand rate. The sample size is small this year, but all of the stuff models love what Henderson is throwing. Henderson has a 107 Stuff+, a 64 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) botOvr, and PLV ranks his main three offerings in the 90th percentile or better. Today could be your last chance to add.
Jameson Taillon has what used to be a fairly tasty matchup against the White Sox today. He’s had high variance on batted balls, benefiting from a .214 BABIP but suffering a 17.2% HR/FB rate. The White Sox lineup has a few excellent power sources between Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, and Colson Montgomery. Other starters have dealt with this by striking Murakami and Montgomery out 30% of the time, but Taillon doesn’t have that kind of put-away stuff. This one could go either way.
JJ Bleday is again the only hitter to rank with the streaming starters on Yahoo. Yahoo managers are taking on a lot more risk in streaming starters, though. Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent all season, but has a 5.5% K-BB and an 85.9% strand rate. His WHIP is at 1.21 despite running a sub-.230 BABIP. It feels like the wheels could come off at any minute, and I wouldn’t be comfortable throwing him in Colorado of all places.
Trevor McDonald has had an excellent first two starts, dominating the Padres at home and surviving 5.1 with moderate damage on the road vs the Dodgers. Stuff+ gives him an above-average 101, and PLV likes both his sinker and slider. It’s not a bad idea to get out in front of other managers by adding him now, but there’s a bunch of risk in starting him on the road in Sacramento. It’s warm and windy in Sacramento today; if you’re starting McDonald, hopefully the wind is blowing in.
Casey Mize is the top add on Yahoo, making his return from the IL against the Blue Jays. I’m with Nick. This is one to avoid, too.
Deep League Players to Watch
Mets Starters – Sean Manaea (Yahoo – 12%), Jonah Tong (5%), Jack Wenninger (1%)
With Clay Holmes suffering the latest Mets Misfortune, fracturing a fibula on a 111 MPH line drive from Spencer Jones, the Mets have an open spot in the rotation. Manaea has struggled in long relief this season. While Manaea is striking out 23.2% of batters, his walk rate has spiked to a career-high 9.8%, and his velo is down to a near career-low 90.3 MPH. He’s suffered from a .377 BABIP, but even the most optimistic ERA estimators are in the neighborhood of 4.40. Maybe he’ll improve if he gets the opportunity to return to a regular starting role.
Jonah Tong is the top Mets pitching prospect still in the minors, but his results have varied wildly from start to start in Triple-A. Two starts have been excellent, one start has been average, and two of his most recent three starts have been meltdowns, accounting for 11 runs in 2.2 innings. Wenninger has gotten excellent results in Triple-A, with a 1.06 ERA in 33.1 innings to start the season. He’s also stranded 90% of runners and has a .234 BABIP. It’s not clear who the Mets will give the next opportunity to, or even if you’ll want them, but this is a situation to watch with a huge variance in what you might get out of it.
Graphic by Carlos Leano
