Fantasy Breakdown: Philadelphia Phillies for 2021

As we prepare for the season ahead, the Pitcher List staff will be creating profiles for every fantasy-relevant player for 2021. Players will be broken up by team and role through starting pitchers, bullpen, lineup, and prospects. You can access every article as it comes out in our Player Profiles 2021 hub here.

At A Glance

 

The Phillies posted yet another disappointing season relative to expectations. With a strong hitting core and the addition of Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia was in line to compete for a playoff spot and potentially even a division crown in 2020. Instead, the Phillies missed the playoffs entirely, finishing 4 games under .500 and 7 games behind Atlanta for the division title. Particularly at fault was the team’s atrocious bullpen, who had 12 blown saves and a absurd team ERA of 7.06. That is not a typo. The Phillies should be in line to make another run at the playoffs, with core players returning for another year, Dave “The Closer” Dombrowski leading the front office, and a (hopefully) rebuilt bullpen.

 

Hitters

By Adam Sloate

 

Infielders

 

Alec Bohm (1B/3B)

2020: 24 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB, .338/.400/.481 | 3B #17

2021 ADP: 107 (3B #14)

“Sonic Bohm” was the big breakout star for the Phillies this year, finishing in a tie for second in NL Rookie of the Year voting with Jake Cronenworth. He hit the ball hard, placing in the 73^rd percentile in exit velocity, 84^th in Hard Hit percentage, and 68^th in barrel percentage. All of that led to an xWOBA of .343 (74^th percentile) and added a new dimension to the Phillies’ lineup. A word of caution, though: Bohm’s .338 BA was partially the product of a .410 BABIP; nobody is good enough to sustain that kind of BABIP over a whole season so he’s due for some regression. Another item to be concerned about is Bohm’s batted ball profile, as he held a launch angle of just 4.8 degrees and put 53.2% of his batted balls on the ground, placing him 12^th among qualified batters. Read more about Bohm’s plate discipline and batted ball profile here.

Bohm is likely not going to give you a lot in the home run department (Fangraphs’ Prospects Department rates him at about average game power) but can definitely contribute to batting average. If he can continue to get on base at a good clip – and keeps batting in front of Bryce Harper – Bohm can be a solid contributor in a few different categories. It helps that Bohm is both 1B and 3B eligible, but the negative regression in the batting average (and in SLG and wOBA, if Statcast is correct) will be something to keep in mind on draft day.

 

Rhys Hoskins (1B)

2020: 35 R, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB, .245/.384/.503 | 1B #21

2021 ADP: 165.5 (1B #23)

“Big Fella” quietly put together another solid year for the Phillies, rebounding from his subpar 2019 to put up numbers similar to his 2018 campaign. Hoskins tallied a career-high Barrel% (93^rd percentile), placed in the 89^th percentile in xwOBA, and tacked on an xSLG in the 86^th percentile. All of this is about up to par with his 2018 season, but what number has me most excited – again, the extremely small sample size caveat applies here – was Hoskins’ BB%, which was up to the 93^rd percentile this year. Hoskins’ BB% was actually a tick down from his 2019 season (98^th percentile) but posting a second consecutive season with such a high BB% is reason for excitement. Hoskins swung more across all his at-bats, swinging more in general but especially on first pitches. It’s important to note that while Hoskins is swinging more, that increase can also create an uptick in strikeouts, which was reflected in Hoskins’ career high SwStr%, Chase %, and Whiff %. The increase in swinging across the board, while still maintaining a high BB%, provides me with some encouragement for the coming seasons, but the uptick in swinging strikes will have to be monitored.

Hoskins is notoriously streaky; in September of 2020, Hoskins saw his OPS decrease by nearly 200 points over July and August (and saw his AVG and OBP decline along with it.) In 2019, Hoskins was dreadful following the All-Star Break, posting a .263/.401/.530 before the break and a puny .180/.318/.361 after it. When Hoskins is on, like he was in the first half of 2019 and 2020, he’s an above-average contributor to several fantasy categories. When he’s off, he’s really off and is virtually unstartable.

Jean Segura (SS)

2020: 28 R, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .266/.347/.422 | 2B #14

2021 ADP: 200.3 (SS #25)

El Mambo – or “James Cigarettes,” as he’s known by Phillies Twitter – rebounded from his subpar 2019 season to put up a campaign similar to his 2017 and 2018 seasons. Segura saw his BB% explode to a career high 10.6%, which was double his 2019 BB%, while also seeing his K% and ISO climb well above his recent numbers. It’s very reasonable to expect those numbers to decline towards his career percentages (more reasoning coming below). Segura also posted his lowest batting average since the 2015 season but saw his OBP and SLG climb above his career average as well. Segura barreled up the ball at his highest rate since 2016 (doubling his 2019 Barrel %) and raised his launch angle by 4 degrees over 2019. At the same time, Segura followed in Rhys Hoskins’ footsteps, swinging at nearly 30% of first pitches. This marked a complete 180 from his 2019, in which Segura swung at just 20.7% of first pitches. Segura also saw his SwStr% increase to double digits for the first time in his career, but other swing metrics show that Segura was a little more selective in the pitches he wanted to attack.

What does all of this mean for Segura? It appears that Segura is starting to exchange some of his batting average for a little extra pop (#SmallSampleSizeCaveat). The swing change, as well as the change in his plate approach, put him on pace for a career high number of home runs. If these trends continue, he can be counted on for a few more home runs, but at the expense of his batting average. He can be a decent contributor and the multi-positional eligibility certainly helps if you’re looking for lineup flexibility. Segura appears to be the top choice to slot in at shortstop with the departure of Didi Gregorius, so he could be adding another position to his fantasy resume soon.

 

J.T. Realmuto (C)

2020: 33 R, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB, .266/.349/.491 | C #1

2021 ADP: 41 (C #1)

The best catcher in baseball, both behind the plate and at the dish, finally re-signed with the Phillies after months of waiting and plenty of complaining from the fanbase, but it was Archie Bradley’s tweet that finally did it:

#SignJT

— Archie Bradley (@ArchieBradley7) January 18, 2021

Thanks, Archie!

At any rate, there should be little cause for concern with Realmuto. He battled a hip flexor strain late in the season, but apparently feels “back to 100 percent.” The only thing that might keep me from drafting him is his fairly-high ADP. I am not quite sure if it is worth paying that kind of price for him.

P.S. Phillies fans, commenting #SignJT or ” fire the whole team” under a Phillies’ social media post probably is not going to do the trick.

Scott Kingery (2B/3B/SS/OF)

2020: 12 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, .159/.228/.283 | 2B #86

2021 ADP: 345.8 (2B #38)

Year 3 for “JETPAX” was about as ugly as can be (Am I a poet or what?). Kingery was diagnosed with COVID in June and apparently suffered through it for “about a month.” He didn’t practice with the Phillies until later in July, missing roughly 10 days of Summer Camp. Kingery got off to a Chris Davis-esque 4-for-40 start to the season and struggled his way to the finish line, likely battling through injuries along the way. It was disappointing for fantasy managers regardless of where he was drafted (if at all), but especially so for those who were counting on something similar to his 2019 season. It’s tough to draw any specific conclusions from Kingery’s Statcast metrics because he played in all of 36 games and racked up only 113 ABs, hardly a representative sample size. But, if you’re looking for reasons to drop Kingery down your draft board, the drop in exit velocity, xBA, and sweet spot percentage can give you plenty of ammunition.

With a full offseason to recover from injuries and nearly 8 months to recover from COVID, Kingery has a chance to bounce back and produce something similar to his 2019 season. Working in Kingery’s favor is that he will have plenty of opportunities to play, as the Phillies don’t have a lot of alternatives for the middle infield. He also has multi-positional eligibility, which should help with lineup flexibility for fantasy managers who choose to spend a pick on him. Assuming he can return to his 2019 levels of production, he is definitely worth a look in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.

Outfielders

 

Andrew McCutchen (OF)

2020: 32 R, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .253/.324/.433 | OF #30

2021 ADP: 205.3 (OF #59)

“Uncle Larry” (or “Cutch”) was roughly league-average last year, according to his surface stats, with nothing much to write home about. A quick look at BaseballSavant’s peripherals show that McCutchen was actually hit by a bit of bad luck, holding an xBA nearly 20 points higher than his actual average and an xSLG about 50 points higher. Cutch also raised his launch angle to 18.2, his highest of the Statcast era, but it is unclear whether that launch angle – as well as his career-low BB% — would have stayed at that level for an entire season.

McCutchen was able to stay healthy for virtually the entire year after tearing his ACL during the 2019 season, playing in 54 games of the shortened 60-game season. He contributed a fair amount of home runs and RBIs and even tacked on a few stolen bases here and there. He obviously is no longer anywhere close to his 2013 MVP campaign, but can still be a serviceable outfielder and a solid contributor to a handful of categories.

 

Bryce Harper (OF)

2020: 41 R, 13 HR, 33 RBI, 8 SB, .268/.420/.542 | OF #6

2021 ADP: 19.5 (OF #7)

Maybe that MVP vote for Ryan Tepera or even Ian Happ could have gone to Harper last season. “Mondo” quietly tacked on another strong campaign to his resume in 2020, contributing in all fantasy departments (even stealing a few bases!) and accumulating the third-highest wRC+ of his career. What’s really intriguing about Harper’s 2020 is that he was due for some significant positive regression, with an xWOBA and xBA nearly 40 points higher than his actual wOBA and batting average. His xSLG was also .115 higher than his actual SLG.

Harper’s barrel percentage hit a new high in 2020, as did his average exit velocity and his launch angle was a full degree higher than in previous seasons. All of these underlying stats – which should absolutely come with a small sample size caveat – make me very intrigued for his 2021 season. Harper is still a great hitter and if 2020 was any indication, he still has the potential to hit another gear and make pitchers pay even more than they normally do. Keep in mind that Harper is entering his prime years – he turns 29 in October – and could have the uptick in production that comes with it.

Roman Quinn (OF)

2020: 14 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 12 SB, .213/.261/.315 | OF #88

2021 ADP: 485.5 (OF #140)

A favorite of Joe Girardi, Roman “100^th percentile Sprint Speed” Quinn did an excellent Billy Hamilton impression and racked up 12 stolen bases in just 41 games. Unfortunately, he committed to the entire Billy Hamilton impression and posted a K rate of 33.6%. His batted ball metrics were nearly identical to his 2019 season (virtually the same Pull/Straight/Oppo %), but much like his teammates, Quinn swung at a higher percentage of his pitches than in previous seasons.

Quinn is fine as a player (as long as you’re not expecting a high level of offensive production at the plate), but Girardi loved to split time between Quinn and Adam Haseley in center field. Quinn started 28 games to Haseley’s 18. This should cap their counting stats and could interfere with whatever offensive rhythm each of them get into. If you need a stolen base, Quinn is the guy to go to. Girardi trusts him in center field enough that he’ll have the opportunities to do so, but don’t expect much in other fantasy-relevant categories.

Watch List Considerations

Adam Haseley is absolutely someone to keep an eye on, as he is the other half of the center field platoon with Quinn. If any of the starting outfielders were to go down with an injury, Haseley would likely be given the first crack at replacing their production. He does not offer much in the power department (barreled just 1 out of 66 batted balls in 2020), but can hit for average and get on base in a pinch. If Realmuto were to miss time, Andrew Knapp had a fairly decent 2020 (.278/.404/.444 and finished as C #26), so he could be worth keeping an eye on, but he is definitely not worth a look unless he were to get extended run in Realmuto’s absence.

Starting Pitchers

By Adam Sloate

Aaron Nola (Locked In)

2020: 5-5, 71.1 IP, 96 K, 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP | SP #15

2021 ADP: 23.8 (P #8)

Repertoire: 27.4% Changeup, 26.7% Curveball, 25.3% Four-Seam, 20.7% Sinker

“Nols” bounced back well from his mediocre 2019, posting career highs in K% and K-BB%, as well as a career low FIP- and SIERA and second-lowest ERA-. Nola altered his pitch usages fairly significantly from 2019 to 2020, dramatically increasing his changeup and sinker usage. His changeup usage spiked from 18.5% in 2019 to 27.4% in 2020, with the pitch’s CSW climbing nearly 7 points alongside the increased usage. While it did not reach money pitch status, the emergence of Nola’s changeup (along with another jump in his curveball’s  CSW) helped add some more depth to Nola’s pitch profile. He now has 3 pitches that generate over 30% CSW.

He was also bitten by the home run ball at a similar rate to last season. His HR/9 in 2019 and 2020 were both above 1.1 after three consecutive seasons under 1.0. His curveball was victimized a little more than in previous seasons, with the HR% on the pitch jumping from 0.6% in 2019 to 1.58% in 2020.

Nola is expected to be the Phillies’ anchor this season, providing a strong start every 5th day. He was already a borderline elite fantasy option, but the jump in strikeouts just makes him even more appealing. Limiting the amount of home runs allowed could push his ceiling even higher.

 

Zack Wheeler (Locked In)

2020: 4-2, 71 IP, 53 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP | SP #40

2021 ADP: 89.3 (P #33)

Repertoire: 42.1% Four-Seam, 23.7% Sinker, 15.9% Slider, 10.1% Curveball, 8.3% Changeup

Wheeler was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Phillies rotation, as his 2.92 ERA/3.22 FIP helped complete the 1-2 punch that they had been looking for at the top of the rotation. Wheeler was able to perform even after sustaining an injury you are more likely to find in Out of the Park Baseball than in real life, as Wheeler hurt a fingernail on his right hand while trying to put on his pants.

Wheeler piled up his strong 2020 season without the strikeouts, as he saw his K% plummet to just 18.4% in 2020, down from his 23.6% in 2019. The drop in strikeouts is not particularly encouraging for his 2021 outlook, but I am willing to give Wheeler the mulligan because of his career strikeout numbers and the limited 2020 season.  He altered his pitch mix to make it similar to his 2017 and 2018 profiles by dropping his sinker usage and dramatically increasing his fastball usage. Hitters were not troubled by the fastball as much as in years past, as Wheeler saw his fastball SwStr% drop from 13% in 2019 to 10.8% in 2020, which could contribute to Wheeler’s dramatic K drop. Diving deeper into the fastball, Statcast shows that the pitch moved quite differently than in previous years. The fastball dropped an average of 15 inches (as opposed to his 13 inches of drop in 2019 and 2018) and broke horizontally by about 5 inches less than usual. A straighter and less deceptive fastball — as we saw in 2020 — is going to make Wheeler’s secondary options more important in maintaining his strong 2020 levels.

Wheeler appears to have found a formula that works for the time being, as the pitch usage changes resulted in a dramatic increase in groundballs, a significant drop in ERA and FIP, and a dramatic drop in the rate at which he allowed HRs. I would not blame Wheeler for wanting to stick with this formula to open the season, even with a corresponding drop in strikeouts. The changes are going to make Wheeler less appealing overall (that end-of-season finish is giving me some pause), but he can still contribute in a number of categories.

 

Zach Eflin (Locked In)

2020: 4-2, 59 IP, 70 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP | SP #51

2021 ADP: 210.8 (P #82)

Repertoire: 51.6% Sinker, 20.3% Slider, 13.1% Curveball, 9.6% Four-Seam

“Led Zeflin” decided he wanted to choose the sinkerball life in 2020 and broke out, accumulating career lows in FIP, ERA, ERA-, FIP-, and so on. He upped his sinker usage to over 50% and cut out much of his 4-seam fastball (9.6%), which helped him keep the ball on the ground more but did not help him keep the ball in the park. Eflin’s sinker is still the same pitch it was from 2017-2019, but simply throwing the pitch more to batters on both sides of the plate dramatically changed his results. He increased his sinker usage against LHB from 11.7% to 45.1% and from 31.1% to 58.1% against RHB, so the change was especially pronounced against LHB. He also threw the pitch in the zone a little bit less than in previous years, as his sinker was in the strike zone 47.6% of the time (down from 48.9 in 2019), but he generated a career-high 30.3% CSW on the pitch and brought his overall Chase % up to a career-high 34.6%.

It will be interesting to see whether Eflin remains a sinkerball pitcher in 2021, but the results from 2020 were certainly promising. His ADP is not particularly inviting, with Eflin being drafted around the same time as Marcus Stroman (218.03) and Nate Pearson (227.52). I think I will need to see more of the same from him before I buy into his improvement. If he can maintain his numbers from last year, he will be an excellent third option behind Nola and Wheeler in this Phillies rotation.

 

Vince Velasquez (Likely)

2020: 1-1, 34 IP, 46 K, 5.56 ERA, 1.56 WHIP | SP #190

2021 ADP: 522.0 (P #252)

“Vicente” had another season in which he was tantalizingly close to being a serviceable starter, but just could not seem to put it all together. His peripherals (4.16 FIP, 91 FIP-, 4.03 SIERA) show he’s a little better than a depth starter, but not quite good enough to be more than a back of the rotation-type player. The bad stuff: His 2020 ERA, K%, AVG, WHIP, and ERA- were the worst of his career. Velasquez was moved to the bullpen for a couple of relief appearances and did not make it past a sixth inning of work in any of his appearances. He gave up a whole lot of home runs, too. The good stuff: Velasquez jacked up his K% (career-high) and K-BB% (second-highest), produced a ridiculous .373 BABIP that is almost certain to come down, and reduced the amount of hard contact he gave up. His sinker and slider were both above-average (according to pitch values per 100) in 2020.

Velasquez would probably be better off coming out of the bullpen or opening games and throwing a couple of innings. He has a couple of pitches that produce fairly good CSW% and was serviceable in relief (albeit in a grand sample size of only 2 appearances). However, the Phillies — unless they make another move — will enter the season with Velasquez as one of their final two starters in their 5-man rotation. He is not worth a look in fantasy formats at the moment.

 

Spencer Howard (Likely)

2020: 1-2, 24.1 IP, 23 K, 5.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP | SP #221

2021 ADP: 358.7 (P #160)

If I had to describe Howard’s 2020 season in one word, it would be: “Terrible.” His 24.1 innings produced a brutal ERA, an equally-brutal FIP, ERA-, FIP-, SIERA, xERA… you get the point. There’s nowhere to go but up for Fangraphs’ 32nd-overall prospect in 2020. His curveball produced plenty of strikes in 2020, generating a 46.2 CSW% , while his slider accumulated a CSW% of 34.7. The pitches and the prospect pedigree is all there for Howard, it is just a matter of putting it all together to reach his “frontline starter potential.”

It is probably going to take some more time for him to be ready, especially because Howard has only pitched 54.2 innings at AA ball or above, so the Phillies were essentially giving him a “trial by fire” experience at the big league level. There are also some concerns with Howard about staying healthy. He has never thrown more than 112 innings in any season and threw just 71 total innings in 2019, with a shoulder injury putting him on the IL for a couple weeks in 2020. Howard’s fastball velocity dropped precipitously during his major league starts, with his first inning fastball sitting at 95 or 96 mph, but dropping to 92 mph by the fourth inning. Be cautious with Howard, but he could be worth a look, especially since the Phillies seem intent on him filling a role in the rotation. His ADP is a little high for me, but he has more upside than many of the pitchers he is being drafted near (Madison Bumgarner, Dylan Cease, Tanner Houck).

Watch List Considerations

Given the shaky nature of the back end of the rotation, the Phillies could look to give several different pitchers an opportunity to prove themselves. The Phillies recently added some depth to the roster by signing Chase Anderson to a 1 year, $4 million deal and Matt Moore to a 1 year, $3 million deal. Both come with major league experience, although Moore pitched in Japan in 2020, and are expected to compete for back-end rotation spots with Velasquez and Howard. Additionally, Ivan Nova was signed to a Minor League contract with an invite to Spring Training, so he could also serve as depth in case of an injury. At this point, these arms have seen better days and are probably not worth looking into unless they make dramatic improvements. They may also be moved into the bullpen, if the Phillies like what they have with Velasquez and Howard at the 4/5 spots.

The additions of Moore and Anderson could potentially make the path to the majors more difficult for the Phillies’ minor league pitching options. The team’s 10th-ranked prospect (according to Fangraphs), Adonis Medina, threw 4 innings in 2020 and appears to be knocking on the door at the major league level, but Anderson and Moore both have major league deals and may be in line for more innings in the interim. Medina could be called up to give a couple of spot starts and see time in the event of an injury. The team’s 14th-ranked prospect, JoJo Romero, threw a hair over 10 innings in 2020. Of course, those were not 10 very productive innings, but Romero could get another crack at meaningful innings in the rotation or even out of the bullpen.

 

Relief Pitchers

By Adam Sloate

 

My gut says that the Phillies will give Bradley and Neris the first crack at the setup and closer roles, with Bradley eventually winning the closer role. However, I could see them also looking into Alvarado as an option for those roles, due to his track record, but he will need to regain his control and put his 2020 behind him before becoming truly fantasy-relevant.

Héctor Neris (SU/CL)

2020: 5 SV, 4 HLD, 21.2 IP, 27 K, 4.57 ERA, 1.71 WHIP | RP #92

2021 ADP: 305.5 (P #109)

Last year was not Neris’ best. His ERA was fairly ugly and he too suffered from the disease known as “Blown Save-itis,” but he had a strong FIP (and FIP-) in 2020 and has had a sub-4 FIP for 4 out of the last 5 seasons, so I think he can rebound in 2021. Neris’ peripheral numbers were all over the place (as they are wont to do in a short season and with a reliever’s usage), with a BABIP of .381 and just 59.5% of runners left on base, but a BB% of 12.6. He will likely experience some positive regression, especially with a fairly normal season coming up, and should be in line for holds — if not saves — should the Phillies get that far with a lead. He may have the advantage for the closer role early on, as Joe Girardi is more familiar with Neris (and Neris has 72 saves as a member of the Phillies over 7 seasons), but if he struggles and Bradley is pitching well, then their roles might change.

Archie Bradley (SU/CL)

2020: 6 SV, 2 HLD, 18.1 IP, 18 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP | RP #240

2021 ADP: 271.3 (P #96)

Bradley was traded from Arizona to Cincinnati close to the trade deadline and turned in a very strong performance with the Reds, throwing 7.2 innings to the tune of a 1.17 ERA. Over the course of the season, he accumulated the lowest FIP of his career and dropped his walk rate to a career-low 4.1%.

Bradley was traded to the Reds just before the month of September and immediately made some interesting changes. In September, Bradley threw his 4-seam a little less (down to 57% from 63%) and saw small boosts in usage to all 3 of his secondary pitches. The 4-seam went from an xWOBA of .487 in August (insert “yikes” emoji here) to an excellent .199 in September, with roughly the same amount of pitches thrown in each month. Another key — and very intriguing — difference in Bradley’s profile was the location of his changeup. In August, Bradley threw his changeup in the zone just 27% of the time. In September, his Zone% jumped to 60%, meaning he was throwing his changeup (again, similar number of changeups thrown between August and September) in the zone far more often than in the previous month. The changeup produced an xWOBA of .101 in that time, but his other pitches saw a significant decrease in xWOBA across the board. In the mother of all small sample sizes, it could be just a blip or a small hot streak, but I am still intrigued by the changes Bradley made.

José Alvarado (MR)

2020: 0 SV, 0 HLD, 9 IP, 13 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP | RP #278

2021 ADP: 642.3 (P #230)

Alvarado has always had the strikeout numbers and was a reliable setup option for the Rays across 2018 and 2019, but was too expensive for them as he entered arbitration, especially coming off a 2020 season in which he only tossed 9 innings. Luckily for the Phillies, who are attempting to rebuild a historically-bad bullpen, Alvarado offers good upside (if healthy) and a bigger body of statistical work than any of the other bullpen options. Alvarado appears to be second in line for the closer job and should receive plenty of opportunities to produce after an injury-riddled 2020. Hopefully, he gets back to sporting an incredible, gif-able sinkerball. Sheesh.

https://gfycat.com/definitivecleanfanworms-jose-alvarado-ff-4-3-19-pitcher-gifs

 

Connor Brogdon (MR/LR)

2020: 0 SV, 0 HLD, 11.1 IP, 17 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.88 WHIP | RP #120

2021 ADP: 525.3 (P #189)

Brogdon bounced between the alternate training site and the major league roster in 2020, but was serviceable in his innings with the big league club. He accumulated most of his innings during September, as Joe Girardi opted to go to him a little more often in the later innings than some of the other options in the bullpen. That could be a good sign for 2021, especially if Brogdon impresses in training camp. He could be in line for more high-leverage options if the aforementioned bullpen options struggle.

 

Watch List Considerations

Two relievers to keep an eye on: Victor Arano and Ranger Suárez. Suárez was a candidate for the 5th and final rotation spot heading into 2020, but was diagnosed with COVID and had to quarantine for nearly the entire season. Suárez threw 48.2 innings for the Phillies in 2019 (he has experience and is not terrible, a win for the Phillies!) and could serve as a bulk innings option. Arano has 70+ innings to his name as a Phillie thus far (3.36 FIP in 59.1 IP across the 2018 season). Arano underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in May 2019 that caused him to miss nearly the entire 2019 and 2020 seasons, but if he can regain the velocity he lost during his injury, he could be an intriguing bullpen option. The Phillies also dealt for Sam Coonrod in early January, so he figures to be a part of the bullpen for a little bit, although his numbers have never indicated that he should be placed in high-leverage or other important spots.

 

 

ADP data taken from FantasyPros composite ADPs [hyperlink to be added once 2021 data is available].

2019 Positional Rankings from Razzball’s 12-team Player Rater (ESPN).

Photos: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire, All Pro Reels, Ian D’Andrea | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)