Going Deep: Isaac Paredes is One to Watch

The Detroit Tigers farm system is full of highly rated fantasy talent, especially on the pitching side (Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Franklin Perez, Alex Faedo, etc.), but one bat is clamoring for more attention: 19-year-old middle infielder Isaac Paredes. Signed by the Chicago Cubs out of Mexico as a 15-year-old in 2015, Paredes played one-and-a-half seasons in the Cubs system before heading to Detroit last season as part of the return for RP Justin Wilson and C Alex Avila. Paredes opened the year in Advanced A at age 19, raking in 84 games at that level before earning a promotion to AA. Here are his numbers on the year:

Level	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
A+	347	9.20%	15.60%	.259	.338	.455	.793	.196	.361	126
AA	155	12.30%	14.20%	.321	.406	.458	.864	.137	.388	142

Let’s focus on his Advanced A numbers for now. That .196 ISO rated sixth overall for the Florida State League (Min. 300 PA’s) and would have rated seventh and twelfth respectively in the two other Advanced A leagues (Carolina and California). He also posted top-ten marks in OPS (.793), wOBA (.361), wRC+ (126), and BB/K (0.59) as well. He displayed a great eye at the plate by limiting strikeouts (15.6% K%), walking at an above-average rate (9.2% BB%), and posting the league’s fifth-lowest SwStr% (6.6%). That approach is such a great thing to see, especially given how young Paredes was compared to the rest of his competition; the average age in Advanced A is 22.4 years.

Despite these numbers, Paredes still lags behind other prospects in acclaim, especially relating to industry rankings, both overall and at his position. MLB Prospect Watch and Prospects1500 do not see him as a top 100 prospect, though Fangraphs and our own Adam Garland do rate him as such. Paredes is also not listed among the top ten prospects at his current position per MLB Prospect Watch. This is odd when you compare his performance to the shortstops ranked ahead of him, especially as most of them spent time in Advanced A in 2018 as well, allowing for easy comparisons:

Name	Level	Age	PA	BB%	K%	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Isaac Paredes	(A+)	19	347	9.20%	15.60%	.793	.196	.361	126
Carter Kieboom	(A+)	20	285	12.60%	17.50%	.88	.196	.402	149
Gavin Lux	(A+)	20	404	10.60%	16.80%	.916	.196	.402	147
Kevin Smith	(A+)	21	371	6.20%	23.70%	.799	.194	.363	127
Andres Gimenez	(A+)	19	351	6.30%	19.90%	.780	.149	.357	124
Royce Lewis	(A+)	19	208	9.10%	16.80%	.726	.144	.337	110
Luis Garcia	(A+)	18	221	5.40%	14.90%	.750	.113	.345	112

At the very minimum, Paredes’s production shows he belongs with those players, offensively at least. Scouts are not as bullish on his defensive abilities, however, rating him below average on speed (40/40) and fielding (40/45) despite an above-average arm (55/55). This is one reason he lags behind some of the aforementioned players in certain prospect rankings, as many see a shift to third or second base in his future. Even if a shift does occur though, Paredes Advanced A production compares well to some of the higher rated prospects at those positions too, despite being younger at the level than many of them:

Name	Team	Age	PA	BB%	K%	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	A+	18	209	17.20%	13.40%	.944	.161	.434	179
Bo Bichette	A+	19	182	7.70%	14.30%	.843	.140	.384	145
Isaac Paredes	A+	19	347	9.20%	15.60%	.793	.196	.361	126
Ke’Bryan Hayes	A+	20	482	8.50%	15.80%	.708	.086	.332	109
Nick Senzel	A+	22	272	8.50%	19.90%	.847	.171	.387	147
Colton Welker	A+	20	509	8.30%	20.20%	.872	.156	.382	134
Keston Hiura	A+	21	228	6.10%	20.60%	.911	.209	.412	156
Austin Riley	A+	20	339	6.80%	21.80%	.718	.157	.332	109
Michael Chavis	A+	21	250	7.60%	22.80%	1.029	.323	.451	187
Nolan Jones	A+	20	130	20.00%	26.20%	.910	.173	.421	162

While defense matters in real life situations and to some extent in fantasy, I think Paredes is being undervalued given his Advanced A offensive production. Since we looked at his numbers compared to his peers, seeing how his numbers compare to current MLB players’ past production at that level makes sense. This chart looks at Advanced A performances (2010 – 2016) by current MLB shortstops and third basemen at age 19:

Name	Age	BB%	K%	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Addison Russell	19	12.10%	23.00%	.885	.233	.386	131
Xander Bogaerts	19	9.90%	19.50%	.883	.203	.393	144
Franklin Barreto	19	4.10%	18.40%	.833	.198	.359	122
Isaac Paredes	19	9.20%	15.60%	.793	.196	.361	126
Carlos Correa	19	12.30%	15.40%	.926	.185	.407	144
Rafael Devers	19	7.30%	17.20%	.779	.161	.352	113
Corey Seager	19	10.50%	27.20%	.566	.160	.253	46
Gleyber Torres	19	10.30%	21.30%	.791	.157	.364	121
Chris Owings	19	2.70%	23.40%	.662	.142	.290	64
J.P. Crawford	19	10.30%	13.70%	.759	.131	.352	119
Willy Adames	19	11.80%	27.00%	.721	.121	.342	121
Francisco Lindor	19	9.40%	10.50%	.783	.104	.363	121
Amed Rosario	19	5.50%	17.50%	.642	.078	.307	97

Paredes compares well to this group, and putting his production into this perspective should excite you somewhat. Direct player comparisons are a fun way to gauge player production and potential, though they are by no means absolute indications that one player will follow the same path to stardom as others with similar statistics. Baseball is littered with players who, at one point, showed similar abilities to future stars before flaming out well before posting an All-Star season in the majors. For every Lindor, there is an Owings. And for every Owings, there is a Jerry Sands or Brandon Wood who never even had sustained success at the MLB level. However, these comparisons do give us an idea of how a player’s performance measures historically, providing us more data to use as we project ahead.

An ETA of 2021 makes him a target for dynasty leagues rather than redraft at this point, though a strong showing in AA this season could accelerate that timetable. His bat should carry him forward regardless of any positional shift, and his advanced approach limits the risk of him being exposed at higher levels. Paredes is a prospect you should invest in now before he becomes more of a known commodity. If he continues hitting in AA like he did over 39 games last season (.321/.406/.458, .136 ISO, .388 wOBA) you may be left on the outside looking in, bemoaning the chance you had to watch Paredes as he terrorizes opposing pitchers with swings like this one in 2018:

 

(Photo by Jeff Chevrier/Icon Sportswire)