Prior to the 2025 MLB regular season, I wrote a series of six articles detailing three pitchers from each division looking to rebound in 2025. These articles can be found at the links below:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
This article will cover each of my NL picks, with my AL picks available here, along with greater details about the grading process. Players are graded from A+ to F, with players missing significant time due to injury receiving a “N/A” grade.
NL East
Grade: A-
In his first year with the Phillies, Jesús Luzardo had a career season, trailing only Cristopher Sánchez in IP and FIP while pacing the team in strikeouts.
Following a disappointing season with the Marlins, Luzardo joined the Phillies and added a sweeper, which he threw more than half the time against lefties. Lefties hit just .205 against Luzardo with a .514 OPS, a vast improvement from 2024, when lefties batted .267 with a .829 OPS against him.
Luzardo was overall sharper than his ~4 ERA suggests, yet a few blowup starts hurt his overall numbers. ERA estimators like xFIP (3.25) and SIERA (3.40) had him at a slightly better clip, as his command shot up and strikeout stuff stayed. Look for Luzardo to improve consistency and continue working deep into games during the 2026 season.
Grade: D
Bryce Elder had a fairly disappointing 2025 season, continuing to allow runs at a high clip while making 28 starts out of the Braves’ rotation.
While working deeper into games than usual, Elder continued to allow loud contact without generating enough strikeouts. Surprisingly, Elder’s ERA estimators had him as closer to a league-average starter for the second year in a row, yet a high HR/FB% and BABIP (.306) sustaining year-over-year suggests Elder’s high ERA isn’t just bad luck.
Elder making routine starts for the Braves was likely more of a product of an injury-riddled season for the Braves, rather than Elder potentially earning himself a consistent rotation spot in the future. Leading the team in innings is a good note, but Elder’s future success may not be as his breakout 2023 season suggested.
Grade: B-
Griffin Canning had a solid year for the Mets, making 16 starts for a Mets team in desperate need of rotation stability. In a June 26th start, Canning endured a season-ending Achilles tear in a non-contact play, cutting his season short.
Before the injury, Canning provided league-average production with a revamped pitch arsenal, adding ~3 inches of drop to both his slider and changeup to post an elite 51.6% ground-ball rate along with a fairly average 25.5% whiff rate.
While Canning was still hit hard and saw his walk rate balloon to 10.7%, his solid arsenal and impressive strides made in 2025 make him an intriguing case following his recovery from injury.
NL Central
Grade: A
David Bednar had an excellent 2025 season, bouncing back from an injury-riddled 2024 season to resolidify himself as a top high-leverage reliever in baseball. After a strong first half, Bednar was traded to the Yankees, where he settled into a closer role and earned 10 saves down the stretch of a tight AL East division race.
Bednar fixed just about every problem from 2024, commanding his four-seam better while his splitter and curveball generated career-best run values of 6 and 5, respectively. Bednar also posted a career-best 34.3% strikeout rate alongside an above-average 7.6% walk rate.
Bednar projects to continue working out of the closer role in 2026, given his healthy 2025 carries over into the offseason. I would consider his rough 2024 just a blip in his otherwise successful career, with injuries potentially being the root cause of his rough command and poor results.
Grade: D
Miles Mikolas had another decent year in 2025, making 31 starts for the fourth season in a row while failing to consistently work deep into games. Mikolas also posted a career-worst 5.04 FIP with a league-worst 12.7% barrel rate against.
Mikolas’s inability to generate whiffs, despite allowing a fairly average 89.3 mph average exit velocity, led to his results continuing to take a step back despite some promising aspects to his 2024 campaign.
Now entering his age-37 campaign, Mikolas enters free agency as a pitcher with upside as a consistent yet underwhelming veteran starter. His 89 Stuff+ was a career-worst, yet he retains a fairly deep arsenal with a solid curveball and changeup.
Grade: A-
Nick Lodolo broke out once again in 2025, making a career-high 29 appearances/28 starts with a career-best 4.8% walk rate and solid peripherals otherwise. Lodolo continued to strike out batters at an above-average clip (24.3%) and induced a solid 44.6% ground ball rate.
The biggest difference-maker for Lodolo this season was his changeup, which was used 27% of the time against righties and generated just a .201 BAA and 65.5% strike rate. This alleviated his prior struggles against right-handed batters, who hit just .216 with a .377 SLG against Lodolo.
Lodolo’s two fastballs and curveball continued to be solid offerings as well, but his command taking the next step was the biggest contributor to his success. If Lodolo’s command were to be sustained in the future, he has the stuff, combined with a unique arm angle and delivery, to see continued success in the Major Leagues.
NL West
Grade: D
Eduardo Rodriguez had another down year in 2025, making 29 starts with an identical FIP and nearly identical ERA to 2024.
Rodriguez’s peripherals took a slight step forward in 2025, as he induced more soft contact and ground balls while striking out a similar number of batters. Still, batters hit 25 home runs against Rodriguez and continued doing damage with runners on, contributing to his high ERA.
ERA estimators did think Rodriguez was slightly better than he looked, although these estimators felt similar in 2024. Rodriguez will have to make strides in his 2026 season to reestablish himself as a reliable starter.
Grade: B
Tyler Kinley followed up a bizarre 2024 with a similarly strange 2025, cutting his ERA nearly in half while his high WPA from 2024 came back down to reality.
Kinley made 49 appearances with the Rockies before getting traded to Atlanta, where he had just a 0.72 ERA in 24 appearances. Kinley used his slider ~75% of the time with the Braves, splitting his poor four-seam and surprisingly impressive curveball usage otherwise.
Kinley was likely due for a change of scenery, but many underlying numbers have liked Kinley since 2024. His top-shelf 29.6% hard-hit rate is among the best in the league, and if Kinley can improve his poor 10.7% walk rate, he could certainly be a solid reliever in the Majors.
Grade: B+
Robbie Ray had a solid bounce-back season in 2025, making 32 starts for the first time since 2022 with the Mariners. While Ray’s stuff generally took a step back, throwing a full season’s workload was a major success.
Batters hit Ray hard in 2025, with a 44.7% hard-hit rate and 9.6% barrel rate contributing to his 22 home runs allowed. This was actually an improvement over years past, where Ray allowed 32 and 33 home runs in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
I would still consider this somewhat lucky, as Ray’s 9.6 HR/FB% was far lower than 2022’s 15.5%. While Ray’s future may not look as promising as it did a few years ago, Ray proved in 2025 that he is capable of two things: handling a full season’s workload and retaining his velocity from 2022.
To be more optimistic about Ray, I would like to see his velocity return to 2021’s level, or his stuff generally return closer to his former self. If not, I would expect some regression in runs allowed for 2026.
