Prior to the 2025 MLB regular season, I wrote a series of six articles detailing three pitchers from each division looking to rebound in 2025. These articles can be found at the links below:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
This article will detail the nine players selected across the three AL divisions, while providing a letter grade ranging from D to A+. Any player whose season was significantly shortened by injury will receive a “N/A” grade.
As this will be my second season reviewing preseason rebound picks, I tried to place greater emphasis on underlying metrics this year when deciding letter grades. While players were selected for rebound in the 2025 season, their continued success is just as important when considering improvements made in 2025.
Overall, these articles were written to highlight players with the ability to see a career rebound. If this resurgence was simply a bounce-back year with continued concerns for future seasons, their grade should reflect this when compared to a pitcher with greater promise.
Players featured in this article, as well as in my upcoming NL grades, are selected in a variety of career turns — anyone from young, developing pitchers to veterans with over a decade of MLB experience could be selected, and all with the same goal of bouncing back. I aim to weigh a player’s most recent season of sufficient playing time while considering both their 2025 performance and future outlook when selecting a letter grade.
AL East
Brayan Bello
Grade: B
Brayan Bello posted a strong 2025 season, making 29 appearances/28 starts in the second year of his 6-year, $55 million extension.
Bello made many improvements to his profile this season, adding back a cutter, as expected, as more of a bullet-slider while splitting usage with his sweeper. This allowed his groundball-heavy approach to continue as he added an improved four-seam for a five-pitch arsenal.
While Bello continued to limit barrels and generate ground balls, his strikeout rate fell to a career-worst 17.7%, as his walk rate stayed roughly average.
Overall, this season was a good sign for Bello from a results standpoint, showing his approach is capable of limiting runs despite strikeouts largely evading him. For the future, look for Bello to continue generating ground balls while finding strikeouts whenever possible.
Mark Leiter Jr.
Grade: D
Mark Leiter Jr. had an injury-riddled 2025 season, missing almost all of July while his high-leverage usage fell throughout the season.
Leiter Jr. entered Spring Training with a few more ticks on his sinker than usual, making it a far more viable option compared to years past. Still, while hitters continued generating ground balls and making weak contact, Leiter Jr. consistently ran into trouble with baserunners and failed to sufficiently limit runs.
Strikeouts were also a problem for Leiter Jr., as his strikeout rate fell as the season progressed. While injury likely correlated with this, whiffs and chases will be worth monitoring in 2026.
ERA estimators, such as SIERA (3.44) and xFIP(3.80), had Leiter Jr. at better numbers than he ended with, yet this has been the case for two seasons in a row now. The upside is there for Leiter Jr., but he will have to prove it before reentering high-leverage opportunities for the Yankees in 2026.
Trevor Rogers
Grade: A+
Trevor Rogers had an incredible bounce-back season in 2025, making 18 starts as the Orioles’ best starter in a season where rotation stability was desperately needed. Rogers displayed model efficiency, routinely going deep into games while pitching in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
Not much changed significantly under the hood for Rogers, who added a tick to his fastball as well as a funky sweeper with ~8 inches of carry. Hitters posted a strong 48.4% hard-hit rate, yet Rogers was able to largely avoid damage by limiting home runs, generating ground balls, and striking out a roughly league-average 24.3% of batters.
This is something we’ve seen Rogers do before — it was just in 2021, as a 23-year-old rookie for the Marlins. While Rogers struck out more batters that season, he was doing a lot of the same otherwise, such as limiting home runs and stranding baserunners.
I would throw in a healthy dose of regression for 2025, given Rogers’ injury history and closer-to-average 3.64 xFIP. Still, Rogers could be a guy who outperforms his underlying metrics if his current command and velocity were to stay consistent.
AL Central
Casey Mize
Grade: B
Casey Mize had a solid 2025 season, making 28 starts in the regular season and two short starts in the playoffs. Mize was able to bring his ERA back below four while working slightly deeper into starts, both important changes that allow Mize to continue projecting as a starter for the Tigers.
Mize deepened his arsenal in 2025, adding back a slurve while speeding up his clunky bullet-slider from 2024. Mize also used more sinkers vs. righties, helping his four-seam continue playing up vs. lefties.
This led to far more repeatable results across the board for the former first-overall pick, who continued limiting walks while generating a league-average 22.2% strikeout rate.
There are still some changes I’d like to see in the future for Mize — his splitter was thrown in-zone too much and got crushed, despite being his go-to secondary against lefties. If Mize can continue adapting to hitters and staying healthy, he has the tools to perform well at the Major League level.
Gavin Williams
Grade: B+
Gavin Williams impressed in 2025, pitching in a career-high 167.2 innings over 31 starts. Despite leading MLB in walks, Williams led the Guardians’ rotation in strikeouts and ERA.
Williams made strides to improve his pitch arsenal in 2025, splitting his bullet slider into distinct cutter and sweeper shapes, while also adding a sinker for use against righties. This allowed his outlier traits, in fastball velocity and extension, to continue generating groundballs and whiffs despite his control issues.
The only thing preventing me from expecting this to repeat is his scary FIP — a high walk rate combined with home runs being an issue for the first time suggests risk in the future. Still, Williams is just 26 years old and could certainly see more growth in his peripherals in 2026.
Kyle Wright
Grade: N/A
Kyle Wright continued to miss time in 2025, failing to appear at the Major League level and making 8 starts split between AA and AAA with mixed results. Wright battled injury throughout the year after entering Spring Training still limited by a prior shoulder injury.
Wright was placed on outright waivers two weeks ago after never appearing with the Royals. Thanks to his excellent 2022 season, there’s a good chance someone will take a flyer on him — if so, the potential talent is exciting.
AL West
Tyler Mahle
Grade: B
Tyler Mahle bounced back in a big way in 2025, cutting his last full-season ERA in half while making 16 starts. Results-wise, this sample is exactly what you’d ask for out of a veteran starter (mostly) healthy for the first time in three years.
Unfortunately, there wasn’t much under-the-hood to love. Mahle’s stuff was down a tick from the past, and his formerly elite strikeout rate fell below league average. While able to limit hard contact, Mahle largely avoided home runs, with an extremely low 4.9% home run/fly ball rate suggesting some negative regression in the future.
Mahle’s ERA estimators, such as xFIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.62), had him as a far worse starter than his crisp ERA suggests. While I wouldn’t invest heavily in Mahle’s future, half a season of low-ERA ball is a big success considering his last few seasons.
Hayden Wesneski
Grade: N/A
After making 6 starts out of the Astros’ rotation, Hayden Wesneski was placed on the Injured List on May 9th and underwent Tommy John surgery a few weeks later. Following an impressive Spring Training that landed him a rotation spot, Wesneski’s season was cut short early and is now projected for a return sometime in early 2026.
As the only player featured on my rebound picks both this year and last year, Wesneski’s potential has intrigued me for quite a while. Unless injuries prevent a healthy comeback, I believe Wesneski has the potential to eventually sustain a rotation spot with the Astros.
Reid Detmers
Grade: B+
Reid Detmers succeeded in a role out of the bullpen in 2025, appearing in 61 games while making strides in nearly every aspect of his game. While Detmers is being considered for a rotation spot in 2026, I believe many of his improvements came because of his shortened appearances.
Detmers added about 2 mph across the board while slowing his curveball down a couple of ticks. Detmers also ditched his changeup and continued using his two-seam fastball sporadically. These changes allowed Detmers to generate elite strikeout numbers, boasting top-shelf chase (33.9%) and whiff (32.7%) rates.
While getting hit hard on occasion, Detmers held both righties and lefties to a sub-.700 OPS, a far cry from 2024, where both righties and lefties crushed him.
Overall, Detmers’ success can be attributed to his stuff reaching the next level. If this change can be sustained out of the rotation, Detmers would be set — if not, another pitch could allow for working deeper into games.
