There were dozens of prospects who emerged from relative obscurity with breakout performances in 2024 to put themselves on the radar for fantasy baseball managers. The big question now is will they be able to sustain their upward trajectory or should we be hesitant to jump on their bandwagons. After all, nobody wants their prospects to turn into the next Oswald Peraza or Joey Wiemer.
Here’s a look at some of last year’s biggest breakout prospects and what’s the outlook for them going forward:
2024 Breakout Prospects
The Elite Tier
1) Kristian Campbell, Red Sox, 2B/SS/OF, Age: 22
2024 MiLB Stats: (A+/AA/AAA): .330 AVG | .439 OBP | .558 SLG | 20 HR | 24 SB | 19.9 K% | 14.3 BB%
It was an incredible ascension for the Boston farmhand from being taken 132nd overall in the 2023 draft to being named Baseball America’s 2024 Minor League Player of the Year. He had an elite contact rate at Georgia Tech, but he was really just a slap hitter before the Red Sox got their hands on him.
Campbell added 15 pounds of muscle onto his 6-foot-3 frame and changed his approach to focus on pulling the ball in the air. Boy, did it work! Now he has the makings of a star with plus grades on his hit, power, and run tools.
Campbell is yet to find a home defensively, but his versatility could allow him to find an opportunity in Boston early in the 2025 season. The Red Sox have an opening at second base, so it’s possible Campbell could break camp in Boston.
As for how to value him in fantasy, he makes for an interesting middle-round lottery ticket in redraft leagues to see if he can be this season’s Jackson Merrill. In the long run, the sky’s the limit as evidenced by the inevitable Mookie Betts comparisons that come up when looking at their minor-league numbers, especially in Double-A—Campbell .362 with 8 HR and 17 SB in 56 G, Betts .355 with 6 HR and 22 SB in 54 G. Campbell has the type of plate discipline combined with a power-speed combo in a hitter’s ballpark to become a No. 1 overall pick.
2) Zyhir Hope, Dodgers, OF, Age: 19
2024 MiLB Stats (R-Arizona Complex League/A): .290 AVG | .419 OBP | .484 SLG | 9 HR | 9 SB | 22.8 K% | 15.1 BB%
Hope has already been a steal twice—first as an 11th-round pick in the 2023 draft out of a Virginia high school by the Cubs, then as part of the return for Michael Busch that the Dodgers acquired last spring. His off-the-charts athleticism and light-tower power were on display last year for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga.
Thanks to missing three months with a shoulder injury, Hope made up for lost development time by going to the Arizona Fall League. Despite being one of the youngest players in the finishing school, Hope created a buzz with a 470-foot blast.
There’s a lot to dream on with Hope, who could eventually join Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in the middle of the Dodgers lineup. Hope is a must-have for rebuilding teams in dynasty leagues and he could pick up steam and arrive in L.A. as early as 2026.
3) Jesus Made, Brewers, 2B/SS/3B, Age: 17
2024 MiLB Stats: (R – Dominican Summer League): .331 AVG | .458 OBP | .554 SLG | 6 HR | 28 SB | 13.0 K% | 18.1 BB%
Made flew under the radar in the 2024 international prospect class with just the 39th-highest signing bonus at $950K. By the end of his pro debut season in the Dominican, Made had leapfrogged to the top of the class along with Leo De Vries by showing off star-level tools across the board.
The switch-hitting Venezuelan consistently stings the ball with authority with exit velocities up to 109 mph to go with a patient, disciplined approach. Made even stole 28 bases in 32 attempts.
It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Brewers are as Made makes his stateside debut. They could jump him past the Arizona Complex League up into Low-A, which would get his season started earlier.
Made oozes superstar potential and has the look of a future No. 1 overall pick in fantasy.
The Upper Crust Tier
4) Luke Keaschall, Twins, 1B/2B/OF, Age: 22
2024 MiLB Stats: (A+/AA): .303 AVG | .420 OBP | .483 SLG | 15 HR | 23 SB | 17.2 K% | 13.4 BB%
Just a second-rounder out of Arizona State in 2023, Keaschall was tearing through a second level last summer before it was revealed that he needed Tommy John surgery. The Twins had some sense when they drafted Keaschall that TJ would eventually be necessary, but they timed the procedure to maximize development time.
As a position player, Keaschall should be able to return in spring training and go about attacking the upper minors for a shot at reaching Minnesota sometime in 2025. With power, speed, and tremendous plate discipline, Keaschall could quickly rise into the elite tier.
5) Quinn Mathews, Cardinals, LHP, Age: 24
2024 MiLB Stats (A/A+/AA/AAA): 143.1 IP | 2.76 ERA | 35.4 K% | 8.6 BB%
Mathews was seen as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater coming out of Stanford, so he was just a fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft. Then his fastball ticked up to sit 94-95 mph and touched 98 with above-average ride. The 6-foot-5 southpaw also improved his slider and changeup, using them to dominate over four levels last year.
Mathews is expected to challenge for a Cardinals rotation spot in spring training and he is a strong candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. Mathews has the potential to turn into an ace.
6) Robert Calaz, Rockies, OF, Age: 19
2024 MiLB Stats: (R – Arizona Complex League/A): .344 AVG | .446 OBP | .633 SLG | 12 HR | 15 SB | 23.6 K% | 13.9 BB%
Calaz signed with the Rockies for $1.7M out of the Dominican Republic in 2023 and was ranked 24th in the international class by MLB Pipeline, so he didn’t come out of nowhere last year. The 6-foot-2, 202-pounder blossomed in his stateside debut, winning the Arizona Complex League triple crown by batting .349 with 10 homers and 45 RBIs in 49 games before shining in a 13-game stint in Low-A (.327 with 2 HR and 3 SB).
Calaz has 70-grade power with 90th percentile EV of 109.5 mph to dream on 40-homer seasons playing at Coors Field. A sharpening of his plate skills could lead to an ascent to the elite tier, making him a tremendous target as he barrels toward the upper levels.
7) Brandon Sproat, Mets, RHP, Age: 24
2024 MiLB Stats: (A+/AA/AAA): 116.1 IP | 3.40 ERA | 28.3 K% | 9.1 BB%
Sproat was a second-rounder in 2023 out of Florida as a hard-throwing but erratic right-handed starter with a lot of reliever risk. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder indeed showed off his lively fastball last year, averaging 96.3 mph and topping out at 101.5, but he showed big strides with his command and his slider developed into a reliable secondary weapon.
After dominating in High-A and Double-A, Sproat appeared to tire in Triple-A as he struggled to a 7.53 ERA over seven starts. He will likely start 2025 back in Triple-A but could be called upon as soon as there’s a need in the New York rotation. Sproat has the upside to be a No. 2 starter and could hit the ground running this season.
8) Angel Genao, Guardians, 2B/SS/3B, Age: 20
2024 MiLB Stats: (A/A+): .330 AVG | .379 OBP | .499 SLG | 10 HR | 25 SB | 15.5 K% | 7.7 BB%
Genao has made steady progress since being Cleveland’s top international signing in 2021, but the switch-hitting shortstop picked up steam last year as his plus-hit tool started to really shine. The Guardians love their switch-hitting, hit-over-power middle infielders and they’ve got another one in Genao.
The 6-foot, 165-pounder will need to develop power to move up much beyond the top-100 prospect he’s become, so it could be a good time to trade Genao. He should be able to emerge as a solid major leaguer, but he may not have the power or speed to become a fantasy stalwart.
9) Alex Freeland, Dodgers, SS, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats: (A+/AA/AAA): .260 AVG | .387 OBP | .442 SLG | 18 HR | 31 SB | 21.6 K% | 14.8 BB%
Freeland entered 2024 as a nondescript prospect, coming off a .240 season in High-A after being a third-round pick in 2022 out of Central Florida. The 6-foot-2, 200-pounder started out last year by dominating back in High-A (1.111 OPS in 23 games), then had a solid showing in Double-A (.370 OBP) before finishing with 39 games in Triple-A.
Freeland has above-average tools across the board and has the kind of makeup the Dodgers love, along the lines of Tommy Edman. He will likely start the season in Triple-A and will provide depth at shortstop for the time being. Freeland’s balanced set of tools could flourish if he can become a long-term fixture in the Dodgers lineup.
The Solid Tier
10) Zebby Matthews, Twins, RHP, Age: 24
2024 MiLB Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 97 IP | 2.60 ERA | 30.5 K% | 1.9 BB%
2024 MLB Stats: 37.2 IP | 6.69 ERA | 24.3 K% | 6.2 BB%
Matthews entered last season as a 2022 eighth-rounder coming off a 4.59 ERA in High-A and finished by making nine starts for the Twins after a remarkable run through the minors. The control artist’s struggles in Minnesota will keep the price down, making the 6-foot-5, 225-pounder a potential bargain.
11. Logan Evans, Mariners, RHP, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats: (AA): 107 IP | 3.20 ERA | 21.9 K% | 9.4 BB%
Evans burst onto the fantasy radar in spring training seemingly out of nowhere after being a 12th-rounder in 2023 out of Pitt. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder posted a 2.89 ERA as a starter around a misguided stint as a reliever (6.10 ERA in 10 games) in Double-A. Evans likely stands as the M’s top option should an injury or trade open a spot in the Seattle rotation. The chance to pitch half his games in T-Mobile Park is the most enviable of fantasy traits these days, making Evans someone to target.
12. Alejandro Rosario, Rangers, RHP, Age: 22
2024 MiLB Stats: (A/A+): 88.1 IP | 2.24 ERA | 36.9 K% | 3.7 BB%
The Rangers converted their 2023 fifth-rounder, a highly successful college closer for Miami, to starting last season and it couldn’t have gone any better. Rosario put a ridiculous 129-13 K-BB in 88.1 innings over two levels, dominating with an upper-90s fastball supported by a devastating splitter and a solid slider. At just 6-foot-1, 165 pounds, the test will be if Rosario can build up his workload while maintaining even close to the results in 2025. An encore could jump Rosario into the elite tier heading into his expected 2026 arrival in Texas.
13. Travis Sykora, Nationals, RHP, Age: 20
2024 MiLB Stats (A): 85 IP | 2.33 ERA | 39.2 K% | 8.2 BB%
Sykora slipped to the third round in 2023 as a 19-year-old prep pitcher, where Washington was happy to scoop him up and sign him to a way-above-slot $2.6M. The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder used his mid-90s fastball that touches 99 to dominate all season in Low-A. There is plenty of ceiling here, but this would be a good time to sell in dynasty leagues before he faces the test of High-A and the risk of coming down with an arm injury.
14. Jonah Tong, Mets, RHP, Age: 21
2024 MiLB Stats (A/A+/AA): 113 IP | 3.03 ERA | 34.2 K% | 10.0 BB%
Tong came into last season as a 2022 seventh-rounder coming off a 5.40 ERA and 9.7 BB/9 in Low-A and finished with two solid starts in Double-A after breaking out in the lower levels. If Tong can keep up the control gains while continuing to rack up high K rates, the 6-foot-1, 180-pounder can reach New York next season. He is still generally undervalued in prospect circles, so it’s still a good buying opportunity. Tong gives off Tim Lincecum vibes with his explosive over-the-top delivery.
15. Thomas Harrington, Pirates, RHP, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats (A/AA/AAA): 117.1 IP | 2.61 ERA | 25.1 K% | 4.1 BB%
Harrington took his command up a notch by cutting his walk rate in half and finished the season with a 3.33 ERA over an eight-start stint in Triple-A. The 2022 fourth-rounder out of Campbell should have a chance to win a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation in spring training before eventually settling in as a mid-rotation starter. He gets lost in an organization with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Bubba Chandler, so Harrington is still a bit of a bargain who could emerge as one of the best NL rookie pitchers this season.
16. Franklin Arias, Red Sox, 2B/SS, Age: 19
2024 MiLB Stats (R – Florida Complex League/A): .309 AVG | .409 OBP | .487 SLG | 9 HR | 35 SB | 17.5 K% | 13.4 BB%
Franklin signed for a modest $525K out of Venezuela in 2023, but made an impressive pro debut by slashing .350/.440/.453 in the Dominican Summer League. The 5-foot-11, 170-pounder rocketed up prospect lists last year by posting a 1.055 OPS in the Florida Complex League before holding his own in Low-A as an 18-year-old. He showed unexpected power to go with an excellent hit tool last year, so if he can build on that then he has a shot at reaching the elite tier by next year.
17. Colby Thomas, Athletics, OF, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): .277 AVG | .342 OBP | .563 SLG | 31 HR | 15 SB | 24.7 K% | 7.0 BB%
Thomas was a third-round pick out of Mercer in 2022 with plus power but poor plate discipline, including a 29.5 K% in High-A. The 5-foot-10, 190-pounder cut his strikeout rate down to 18.0% last season in Double-A before it surged back up to 30.3% in Triple-A. Thomas still got to his power, so if he can improve his plate discipline in Las Vegas then he’ll be up with the A’s early in the season. With the A’s playing their home games in Sacramento for the next few years, Thomas could be a sneaky 30-homer bat that can still be had for relatively cheap.
18. Drake Baldwin, Braves, C, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): .276 AVG | .370 OBP | .423 SLG | 16 HR | 2 SB | 17.2 K% | 13.1 BB%
Baldwin made a name for himself with a home run in the All-Star Futures Game last summer, then backed it up with an .878 OPS in the second half in Triple-A followed by a .943 OPS in the Arizona Fall League. The 2022 third-round pick out of Missouri State will challenge for the Atlanta backup catcher job in spring training. Baldwin may have to wait a few years in a part-time role behind Sean Murphy before getting a chance to start, whether that be with Atlanta or elsewhere. Walking more than he strikes out, Baldwin has a tantalizing ceiling if he can just get a full-time job.
19. Adrian Del Castillo, D’backs, C, Age: 25
2024 MiLB Stats (AAA): .312 AVG | .399 OBP | .603 SLG | 26 HR | 0 SB | 16.9 K% | 11.6 BB%
2024 MLB Stats: .313 AVG | .368 OBP | .525 SLG | 4 HR | 1 SB | 32.2 K% | 8.0 BB%
Del Castillo showed glimpses of a breakout in 2023 when he posted an .891 OPS in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A, but he blossomed last season with a 1.002 OPS and 26 homers for Reno. The 5-foot-10, 208-pound backstop had cut his strikeout rate from 28.9% in 2023 for Reno to 16.9% last season before it rose to 32.2% in a 25-game stint for Arizona. Del Castillo hit .313 with four homers in the final month for the D’backs and will battle for the Arizona backup catcher job in spring training. Del Castillo could see some time at DH once he gets the call, which gives him a high ceiling as a potential high-volume catcher.
20. Agustín Ramírez, C/1B, Marlins, Age: 23
2024 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): .267 AVG | .399 OBP | .603 SLG | 25 HR | 22 SB | 16.9 K% | 11.6 BB%
Ramirez signed out of the Dominican Republic for $400K back in 2018 with the Yankees and finally put himself on the fantasy radar with a combined .819 OPS over three levels in 2023. The 6-foot, 210-pounder blew up in Double-A last season with a .942 OPS, 16 homers, and 13 steals before slowing down in Triple-A. He came over to Miami in the Jazz Chisholm trade and finished strong with an .805 OPS and five homers for the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate. Ramirez is yet another catcher looking to win a job in spring training, but he has less competition than Baldwin or Del Castillo in Nick Fortes. Ramirez could wind up pushed to first base when fellow prospect Joe Mack arrives in Miami, so don’t hold your breath that the defensively-challenged Ramirez remains catcher-eligible.
The Mirage Tier
1. Chandler Simpson, Rays, OF, Age: 24
2024 MiLB Stats (A+/AA): .355 AVG | .410 OBP | .397 SLG | 1 HR | 104 SB | 8.5 K% | 8.5 BB%
A poor man’s version of Victor Scott II with zero power (his one homer was inside-the-parker) and less defense, Simpson must first conquer Triple-A before he can supply empty speed in the majors.
2. Javier Sanoja, Marlins, 2B/SS/OF, Age: 22
2024 MiLB Stats (AA): .286 AVG | .345 OBP | .418 SLG | 7 HR | 17 SB | 8.5 K% | 6.5 BB%
2024 MLB Stats: .229 AVG | .250 OBP | .286 SLG | 0 HR | 0 SB | 11.1 K% | 2.8 BB%
A contact-hitting, versatile up-the-middle defender has value on an MLB team, but Sanoja doesn’t have the power or speed needed to be a fantasy asset.
3. Matt Wilkinson, Guardians, LHP, Age: 21
2024 MiLB Stats (A/A+): 118.2 IP | 1.90 ERA | 37.6 K% | 8.0 BB%
The portly lefty dominated across two lower levels, but he lacks the velocity to be much more than a back-of-the-rotation innings eater if he doesn’t get blown up in the upper minors.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out more prospect content from the team.
Rudy,
Do you think Matt Shaw will be a starter for the Cubs this season?
Thanks,
Joe