We’re approaching mid-May, and the breakout players are starting to shift.

Already, plenty of the guys we have talked about have burned out a bit, such as Cam Smith and Chase Dollander. I’m pretty impressed, though, that some of the early breakouts have held the line, with Joey Wiemer, Chase DeLauter, José Soriano, and Jordan Walker still cooking even after all these games. The approach to breakouts changes a bit now, as the focus shifts to what have you done for me lately? You’ll see what I mean when I break down these players, as they have all shown us recently what they are capable of. But are they capable of it for a whole season? Well, that’s the question we aim to answer.

Kazuma Okamoto, 1B, 3B, TOR

If you mentioned Kazuma Okamoto being broken down in an article like this a couple of weeks ago, chances are you’d probably think it was for Patience or Panic. It took him a bit of time to get his bearings, but as of right now, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game.

Okamoto has seen a major power surge as of late, which is driving this early-season breakout. His series against Minnesota, in particular, was promising for him, as he had four home runs across the four games, including a 453-footer that was hit at 112mph. He has moved further back in the batter’s box, and this has seemingly led to improvements in many aspects of his game. His strikeout rate is going down, his walk rate is going up, and his somewhat disappointing (thus far) batting average is climbing to a mark around league-average. The numbers on this streak look more in line with his Japanese production, where he maintained walk and strikeout rates in the teens. This production has led to him climbing up the Jays’ batting order, filling in well in various roles such as cleanup and the two-hole. As the Jays are still missing several players due to injury, this streak has been a welcome one.

Verdict: Probably Legit. You can see the strides that Okamoto has taken to improve his hitting just in his Process+ grades for the year. His production in that stat is climbing like a rollercoaster lift hill, and I don’t see any reason why there will be a steep drop. The main driver of his climb is the improvements in decision-making, an area where he has jumped from being just around average to being one of the more disciplined players on the Jays. He may be as productive as he has been over this streak over the course of the rest of the season, but he will certainly be better than the player whose OPS was in the .600s before he caught fire.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, RP, PIT

Around here, Braxton Ashcraft has been the talk of the town. The latest list cover-boy made up for a rocky game against the Cardinals (what Pirates pitchers don’t get bad voodoo against the redbirds?) by carving open the Reds.  The Cards loss has been really his only bad outing this year, which has us wondering: is this a breakout, or a fakeout?

Ashcraft has given managers pretty much everything they want from him out of the gate. Well, except for team success, as he does have a losing record. He’s been efficient with his pitches, which has allowed him to give a surprising amount of volume for a player who was a late-season reliever-to-starter convert in 2025. He’s gotten plenty of strikeouts, and the ratios have been pristine.

Ashcraft’s success stems from great breaking balls. He was known as a prospect for an extremely sharp slider. The pitch sits around 92 and induces quite a bit of swing-and-miss. Interestingly, though, it isn’t his most relied-upon breaker, as he’s taken a real liking to the curve this year. His hook is thrown almost as much as his four-seamer, and it was his most thrown offering in his recent 7+ inning shutout. The fastballs are a bit dead-zoney, but he can make up for this somewhat if he nails them at the top of the zone.

Verdict: Probably Legit. I have always been somewhat skeptical of breaking-ball heavy starting pitchers, as I think that the great four-seam foundation is really what powers most aces, at least ones who get strikeouts. I’m not sure if Ashcraft is an ace, but he has taken major steps forward and has found great success so far off the back of his good breakers. He’s a legit must-have in fantasy leagues right now and I think he really can be that #2 pitcher for the Pirates, even with Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones (eventually) competing for that role.

Nick Martinez, SP, RP, TBR

This might be the Vargas rule to end all Vargas rules.

With seven starts in his belt, Nick Martinez currently holds an ERA of 1.71. His WHIP is fairly low, and he’s also winning plenty of ballgames. He’s not striking out lots of batters, but so far the ratios are making up for that. This all comes after a Spring Training that was nothing short of a disaster, as he put up an ERA of nearly 15 in four starts. Many people thought he would be moved to the bullpen rather quickly, or even possibly DFA’d altogether. Instead, he has been the backbone of a Rays team that can’t stop winning games.

So how does he do it? Martinez has a full arsenal of six pitches that help him get the job done. He doesn’t have impressive velocity or super sharp movement, but he commands decently well and can mix his pitches well. It’s often going well for Martinez when he gets his changeup and cutter going, as they are arguably his most effective pitches. The cutter gets lots of strikes, and the changeup is capable of diving out of the zone to get the occasional whiff or poorly hit ball. His most used pitch is the sinker, which he really likes to use to jam righties when he hits his spot on the corners.

Verdict: Not legit. I really don’t want to be the down guy on Martinez, as I love it when the Rays can get the most out of a pitcher. It also seems like Martinez is a very well-respected person in locker rooms, a hard worker, and a true leader, something that can clearly be seen in the way that the team’s pitchers have openly supported each other. However, an ERA this low is unlikely to be maintained by any starting pitcher, but especially not by one who only strikes out six batters per nine. It’s a fun run for a likable player, and you shouldn’t just drop him because his peripherals aren’t great, but the stuff just isn’t good enough for him to transform into an ace overnight.