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Minor League PLV Grades: Week 6

More prospects are jumping to MLB, but we're ahead of the curve

Could you imagine tuning in for every MLB game, every day? At first, it sounds like paradise, but try watching each one critically and tracking performances without fan-friendly tools. Trust me, it becomes a grind. Now imagine quadrupling that workload by adding minor-league games on top. Thankfully, minor-league Mondays are off across the board, but from Tuesday through Sunday, it’s full throttle. And no matter how or where you watch, keeping tabs on even just your favorite team’s farm system is a full-time job—never mind doing it with any real competence. That’s why we’re here. Let’s take a look at some of the rising stars you already know—and a few hidden gems you need to know—down on the farm.

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Checking in on Some Big Name Prospects:

 

Zebby Matthews, 24, Minnesota Twins

Season Stats: 7 GS/ 32.2 IP/1.93 ERA/28.1% K%/6.7% BB%/1.19 WHIP

Weekly Stats: 2 GS/ 9.1 IP/ 1.93 ERA/22.0% K%/4.9% BB%/1.50 WHIP

 

Between his stellar Triple-A production and a flailing Minnesota Twins squad, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that right-handed pitcher Zebby Matthews would once again see an extended stay in the majors. But his recent outings show the 24-year-old still has work to do before his promotion is truly undeniable.

Fellow Pitcher List writer John Villavicencio had Matthews dropping down this week’s stash list after his May 4 start, and frankly, the May 10 outing backed that up. Matthews did rebound with a solid nine whiffs to only one barrel against Buffalo, with his 27.3% whiff rate ranking as his best since a Apr. 15 start.

Add in a better-than-average .252 xwOBA, no free passes, and no earned runs, and the surface-level numbers suggest Matthews is back. That may be true—back to what fans and fantasy managers should reasonably expect from him the rest of 2025. But the bar was set sky-high by his electric start to the season. His month of April was one of the best in the game and raised expectations across the board. The hope now is that he can recapture that early-season magic. And while his May 10 outing was a clear step in the right direction, it’s just one piece of a longer journey.

Matthews’ bread and butter has always been his four-seam fastball, and it is long considered one of the best in Triple-A. But over his past two starts, there are some noticeable red flags with that pitch. His average velocity has dipped from 96.7 mph to 96.1 mph, and opposing hitters are starting to square it up more consistently. In April, batters managed just a .297 xSLG against his fastball—but that number has jumped to a troubling .604 xSLG in May. While the whiff rate has ticked up slightly, the 117-point jump in xwOBA is cause for concern.

His slider remains his go-to breaking ball and played a big role in his early-season strikeout surge. It doesn’t model as a dominant pitch in PLV, but the game-level results are there, and in fantasy, that counts. Meanwhile, his cutter has seen a usage spike in his last two starts, and it’s easy to see why. PLV loves the pitch, with above-average marks across the board, especially in control and velocity. His 5.44 PLV on the cutter puts it well above the pack.

So what’s going on with Matthews? Is there a tell in his delivery? A sequencing issue? Or are the fastball concerns so significant that even his strong supporting pitches can’t compensate? This past week wasn’t his best, and those three questions stand out as possible explanations for the sudden dip in performance. Of course, this is all graded on a curve—every organization would find a spot for Matthews in their system. The question is, which version should fans and fantasy managers expect going forward: the future All-Star we saw in April, or the merely solid version surfacing in May?

Take a look under the PLV hood here:

  

 

Joe Boyle, 25, Tampa Bay Rays

Season Stats: 6 GS/32.0 IP/1.69 ERA/27.6% K%/9.8% BB%/0.91 WHIP

Weekly Stats: 1 GS/6.0 IP/1.50 ERA/4.0% K%/8.0% BB%/1.17 WHIP

 

We can all agree that four consecutive quality starts are impressive, right? The hotter take might be this: Triple-A quality starts are even harder to come by. With pitch counts, innings limits, and strict development plans in play, most prospects barely get past the fifth. But towering right-hander Joe Boyle’s run of four straight quality starts for Triple-A Durham feels like business as usual—at least on the surface.

It’s easy to forget that Boyle didn’t come up through the Rays system. He arrived this offseason from Oakland, and let’s be honest: if the Rays are calling about a player, you should probably ask why they want him before you say yes. Tampa Bay hasn’t turned every trade target into an All-Star, but Boyle is trending in a very Rays-like direction to start 2025.

That said, his latest outing wasn’t his sharpest. The Notre Dame product allowed just one earned run and five hits over six innings, but struck out only one batter and walked two. Walks have been a recurring issue for Boyle this season, with at least two in five of his six starts. The lone exception? May 2, when he struck out 10 and faced just three more than the minimum in a dominant showing.

As with Matthews, Boyle’s four-seam fastball is the heartbeat of his arsenal—and as it goes, so does his outing. He threw it 44 times on May 8, generating 11 whiffs, yet still allowed a .345 xwOBA on the pitch. That’s below his season average in both categories, but still strong numbers overall.

Boyle’s time with the Athletics was inconsistent, but his lone MLB start this season was outstanding. Tampa Bay tends to be cautious with their pitching prospects, but if Boyle doesn’t log multiple big-league starts this summer, it could be for a reason PLV points out. His three-pitch mix might not fit well in the modern era of varied arsenals, especially as each offering grades out as average or below. The game-level results say that Boyle is a late-blooming rotational anchor in Tampa Bay, but the metrics point to a prospect with more work to do before a more permanent jump to The Show.

Take a look under the PLV hood here:

 

Weekly Four-Seam Standouts

This section could be a combination of Bubba Chandler (149 on May 7), Jacob Misiorowski (150 on May 9), Andrew Painter (118 on May 9), or Matthews week in and week out. Those pitchers are among the cream of the prospect crop, and their fastballs are a large part of their success. Instead of honing in on the player’s managers many already know, here are some other above-average offerings and what makes them worth noting.

 

Ryan Weathers, 25, Miami Marlins

Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 130 Fan 4+ on May 8, 2025, start

Season Stats: 3 GS/10.2 IP/1.69 ERA/32.5% K%/10.0% BB%/0.75WHIP

 

It finally felt like left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers turned a corner in 2024. The Miami Marlins southpaw wasn’t perfect in his first full season in his second club, but he was more than serviceable and a better pitcher than he was three years prior. Unfortunately, he was bitten by the injury bug that the Marlins cannot root out. A forearm injury delayed his MLB return until this coming week, when he will reportedly start against the Chicago Cubs.

The Tennessee native’s success last season largely came from his four-seam fastball, so seeing it grade out so strongly in his final rehab start is promising. His lasting five innings against Syracuse is another good sign, shutting them out while striking out three and allowing only two hits. His average velocity sat at 97.8 MPH, touching 99.2 in the top of the fifth. Weathers looks ready to go.

 

Chen-Wei Lin, 23, St. Louis Cardinals

Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 135 Fan4+ in May 4, 2025, start

Season Stats: 1 GS/2.0 IP/0.00 ERA/66.7% K%/16.7% BB%/0.50 WHIP

 

After spending all of the 2024 season dominating the opposition for High-A Peoria, Taiwan native Chen Wei Lin returned from the IL with more of the same. He racked up four strikeouts across two innings of work, mixing in an explosive four-seam fastball and changeup/slider for those coveted whiffs.

The 23-year-old seems ready for the next step soon, assuming he is healthy. The arsenal is still very much a work in progress, but the Cardinals’ prospect started off his 2025 season on the right foot.

 

Welcome to the Bigs

 

Cade Horton, 23, Chicago Cubs

Minor League Season Stats: 6 GS/1.24 ERA/0.86 WHIP/30.6% K%/12.0% BB%

Major League Debut Pitching Line: 4.0 IP/3 ER/1.00 WHIP/5 K/0 BB/77 P

 

It is easy to look at that debut box score and think that right-handed pitcher Cade Horton’s debut this past week was a letdown. But the former Oklahoma Sooners pitcher lived up to his billing and then some in his MLB debut.

Horton earned the win for Chicago as they eked out a 6-5 victory over the New York Mets at Citi Field. This was certainly not Chicago easing their top pitching prospect into The Show, but his experience and stuff blended together for an impressive outing. His biggest blemish on the day accounted for all three of New York’s earned runs against him. Mets third baseman Brett Baty got a hold of a hanging Horton slider in the fourth inning, putting it over the center-right field wall.

“It’s the first homer I’ve given up; it’s not going to be the last one,” Horton said. “So just move on to the next pitch.”

Horton’s four-seam fastball was unsurprisingly the star of the show, but it was his secondary options that showed up when it mattered most. His sweeper only registered a 4.42 PLV on the day, but induced plenty of swings with an 18.5% swinging strike rate. The breaking balls have been so-so in Triple-A from a PLV perspective, but it was his changeup that appeared when it mattered most. He sparingly throws the offering in 2025, and only threw it once against the Mets. Thanks to sequencing knowledge and situational awareness, Horton struck out outfielder Juan Soto on a silly swing when he needed it the most.

Other pitchers that made their MLB debuts this past week: 

Blade Tidwell, 23, New York Mets

Caleb Freeman, 27, Chicago White Sox

Elvis Alvarado, 26, Athletics

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