The quality difference between the NL and AL baffles me. Seriously, as I’m creating this week’s top-five series list, all I can think about is how eight losing American League squads are within 3 ½ games of making the ’26 postseason. The problem with this scenario, and what seems so unfair, especially if I were a player on a National League wild-card contender right now, is that if my team were the Pittsburgh Pirates (their 63-69 record is the best among losing squads in the NL), we’d be only 2 ½ games out of a playoff spot if competing in the Junior Circuit. We’d be right in the thick of it. However, in reality, the Pirates are 8 ½ games out of an NL wild-card position, and their hopes of making it back to the playoffs for the first time in a decade are about over.
Given that there are far fewer intraleague games because of MLB adding 30 more interleague meetings for each club at the start of 2022 (from 16 to 46 interleague contests), maybe it’s time to go back to the old scheduling system or get rid of two leagues altogether. Here’s a solid example of why part of me believes this: the Kansas City Royals are 58-74 and sit 7 ½ games back of a postseason berth in the American League. They are closer to the playoffs than Pittsburgh, a team five games better than the Royals, yet further behind in the National League postseason picture.
Below are three series involving one club with a losing record. And, folks, you can bet that those teams don’t reside in the National League. Unfortunately, despite the mediocre records, there’s no denying the importance of each of their upcoming matchups this week. You won’t see the Pirates’ three-game set with San Diego on the top-five list, but if both of those clubs were in the American League, and the Bucs were within three games of a playoff spot, things might be different. Instead, I’ve got to talk about a trio of below-average AL West franchises because they are in a close race for not only the division, but the wild card as well.
Let’s put the Astros, Rangers, and the team that is seven games under .500, the Seattle Mariners, in the National League for a year and see how they do. With all that nonsense in mind, here is this week’s top five series.
No. 1: Dodgers (80-51) at Atlanta (76-55)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It’s a good thing for Atlanta that they were able to salvage the final game of their series with Milwaukee on Sunday at the Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Had the NL East leaders been swept by the Brewers, not only would they be seven games behind Milwaukee for the NL’s best record, but their division lead over Philadelphia would have been trimmed to two games. Fortunately for Atlanta, they won Sunday’s contest, 4-2, and still have a three-game lead over the streaking Phillies. If they can take this series with the Dodgers, who are coming in on a six-game winning streak, then the race for the National League’s No. 2 seed and a bye to the NLDS will be tight. However, with a Dodgers sweep this week, Atlanta can pretty much forget about a top-two seed and first-round bye. This is a massive series between two of MLB’s best clubs.
Keep an eye on the expected pitching matchups. Now, in fairness, the last time I mentioned a pitcher’s return to the mound following a lengthy absence was on Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview. I thought, as did some others, that Joe Musgrove would be making his Padres season debut on Friday following a UCL injury that has kept him sidelined since 2024. Instead, Musgrove had a setback in the minors (back injury), and it looks like he’ll be back in September, if healthy. Let’s hope I don’t look like a fool this time around. According to sources, Dodgers right-hander Tyler Glasnow (7 GS, 3-0, 2.72 ERA) will come off the 60-day IL (back spasms) on Tuesday and make his first start since early May. He’ll face Atlanta’s Bryce Elder (24 GS, 8-7, 3.92 ERA).
The other expected pitching matchups:
Wednesday: LAD – Roki Sasaki (22 GS, 5-5, 4.42 ERA) versus ATL – AJ Smith-Shawver (2 GS, 0-0, 6.23 ERA).
Thursday: LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (23 GS, 12-7, 2.61 ERA) versus ATL – Chris Sale (23 GS, 12-9, 2.20 ERA)
In May, Atlanta won two of three contests at Dodger Stadium in their only other meeting this season.
No. 2: Rangers (65-66) at White Sox (68-62)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Here’s the first of the three sub-.500 clubs making this week’s top-five list. We have a matchup between the AL West co-leader and the AL Central’s first-place squad and current No. 2 seed in the American League postseason picture. If the playoffs began today, the Rangers would be the AL’s No. 6 seed, while the Astros would be the AL West champs thanks to winning the season series with Texas, 9-4. Chicago won two out of three contests when these squads met in late July.
The White Sox are in one of those peculiar situations. Kind of a good-news, bad-news, and then some more good-news situation. The first good news is obvious. Chicago is the only winning team in the AL Central and currently has a 3 ½ game cushion over Cleveland. The bad news is that the ChiSox have the worst record by far versus winning clubs (18-28) of all 12 current playoff squads. If Chicago gets into the postseason, they’ll have to do much better against the good teams if they have any hope of making a run, even with potentially having home-field advantage in the ALDS. Back to some good news. The White Sox do not play another team with a current winning record for the rest of the regular season. That’s not a typo, and of course that could change if teams on their upcoming schedule, like the Rangers in this series and others like the Astros, Guardians, Twins, and Cardinals, get going. But as it stands today, Chicago has a very favorable schedule going forward.
Then there’s Texas. I don’t know what to make of this club any more than I do the Astros (who just lost two of three contests at home to the last-place A’s) and the Mariners (who have allowed more than 18 runs in a game multiple times since last Tuesday). These clubs aren’t very good and, to be frank, none of them are worthy of a division title as it currently stands. Let’s consider something I discussed at the start of this month. Only the Astros came into August with more than one winning month this season (three). The Mariners and Rangers have one winning month apiece. Those numbers might not change anytime soon. With eight days remaining until the calendar flips to September, every AL West club has a losing record this month.
Anyway, despite the mediocre quality of these franchises, this series matters to just about every AL playoff contender except the top three teams by record in the league (Tampa Bay, New York, and Boston). Those three clubs are safely in the playoff field right now, and I don’t think any of them are too worried about the outcome of this series. As for the rest of those sub-.500 playoff contenders, they all have some rooting interest in this matchup. It’s really a question of whether teams like the Twins and Tigers will be rooting for the team they are chasing in the AL Central (Chicago) because they are closer to the Rangers in the wild-card hunt.
This won’t be the last time a series between AL Central and AL West clubs makes the top-five list this year. Let’s hope that when it happens next, the two franchises involved have winning records. I know it’s a lot to ask of the American League, but something has to give, right? Are we really going to see nine losing teams combined between these two divisions at season’s end?
No. 3: Cubs (75-56) at Diamondbacks (69-62)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Let’s get off the losing mentality for a bit and jump to a series that pairs two quality teams. The Cubs and D-backs are about to play three games with plenty at stake.
The Snakes continue to see-saw this month between series wins and losses. Since an August 9 series victory over the Dodgers at home, Arizona has lost a series, won a series, lost a series, and most recently won a series over Cincinnati, 2-1. It’s very difficult to predict how this franchise is going to do without one of their top players, Ketel Marte. Between his time on the restricted list for actions we still don’t know for certain about and his stint on the 10-day IL with left knee inflammation, it makes me wonder if this team is good enough to hang with Chicago, Philly, and San Diego for the final three wild-card spots. As it stands on Monday, Arizona is two games back of the Padres for the third NL WC, and four behind Philadelphia for the second position.
Chicago is only two games ahead of Philadelphia for that top wild-card spot after beginning August with a four-game lead over Arizona for that position. The odds of catching Milwaukee in the NL Central at six games back are small, but the Cubs will face the Brew Crew seven more times beginning with a series next Monday at Wrigley Field.
The expected pitching matchups for this series have my attention. I want to see if Chicago’s Kevin Gausman (26 GS, 6-11, 4.58 ERA) can find his stuff in Monday’s opener against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (23 GS, 8-11, 5.37 ERA) in a battle of the age-35-and-over club. In three starts with the Cubs since coming over from Toronto at the Trade Deadline, Gausman has a 1-1 record with a 6.19 ERA over 16 innings.
Tuesday: CHC – Clay Holmes (12 GS, 5-6, 2.49 ERA) versus ARI – Brandon Pfaadt (23 G, 13 GS, 7-1, 3.39 ERA)
Wednesday: CHC – Matthew Boyd (16 GS, 8-2, 4.15 ERA) versus ARI – Eduardo Rodriguez (26 GS, 13-4, 2.61 ERA)
Chicago swept Arizona, 3-0, at Wrigley Field in early May.
No. 4: Phillies (73-58) at Mariners (62-69)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
And back to the American League’s under .500 playoff contenders. I’ll be honest, if it weren’t for the Phillies’ insane two-out comeback in the ninth frame on Sunday versus St. Louis to increase their winning streak to nine games, I may very well have left this series off the top-five list and replaced it with Boston-Miami. But Seattle can thank Philadelphia for carrying enough of the load to get this matchup on the big list.
I don’t want to rant, but one thing that is driving me nuts this season is the higher frequency of teams using position players as pitchers when the game is “out of reach.” It’s a joke, and look no further than what Seattle manager Dan Wilson has pulled off over the last week, using three non-pitchers out of the bullpen when his team is getting crushed by the opponent. No one wants to watch three position players in less than a week (3B Leo Rivas, C Jhonny Pereda, 3B Weston Wilson) combine to surrender 14 runs on 17 knocks over 2 ⅓ frames. I don’t care what the score is, but if the league is going to allow players to consistently throw 35 mph pitches on the big-league level, then they may as well have a random draw for fans to come down and give it a shot as well. They could do no worse. It’s a bad look for the league, and for some reason, I’ve seen these shenanigans more often this year than I ever have before. I hope, for the sake of the game, MLB fixes this garbage, because paying fans shouldn’t have to see any of that.
Alright, rant over. But it doesn’t change how I feel about the Mariners. Despite winning this weekend’s series with the Cubs, I still think this club is in trouble. We’ll see how they do against the Phillies this week. At two games behind Chicago for the top wild-card spot and only three back of Atlanta in the NL East, we should be in for an exciting finish.
Keep an eye on Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm. He’s swinging a hot stick in August (.378/.420/.527 slash line in 18 contests), but sat out on Sunday with hamstring and groin cramps. He’s been a huge part of the Phillies’ latest run.
Monday’s opener should be a fun matchup on the bump between Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (21 GS, 10-4, 2.92 ERA) and Seattle’s ace Logan Gilbert (25 GS, 10-7, 3.35 ERA).
No. 5: Astros (65-66) at Yankees (74-56)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It’s always entertaining when these rivals meet. I’m not nearly as excited about this matchup as I was when these clubs were the American League’s cream of the crop and met three times in the ALCS over a six-year period (’17, ’19, ’22). However, given where they are in their respective division and wild-card races, this series still ranks high on the intrigue and importance scales.
The Yankees have been mostly hovering around that three- to five-game range of the Rays in the AL East for a while. Right now, New York trails by three games with 32 contests remaining on their schedule, including a four-game series at home versus Tampa Bay from September 22-24. In the meantime, the Yanks begin a seven-game homestand on Tuesday with Houston and then welcome Boston to town for a huge four-game, and potential wild-card-swinging series.
As mentioned earlier, Houston is tied atop the AL West with Texas. The Astros are a struggling club that has only two series wins this month, and over the last week-plus they’ve gone 3-6 versus the AL West’s worst teams (Mariners, Angels, and A’s). I felt, as I think many probably did, that Houston’s recent soft-looking schedule, which included back-to-back series against the American League’s two worst teams by record (Angels and A’s), would give them a jolt up the AL West standings. It didn’t, and now the ‘Stros are about to play five of their next six series versus winning clubs, beginning with this three-game set in the Bronx.
New York is 2-1 against Houston this season.
Missed the Top Five
Rays (77-53) at Tigers (61-69): Three games
Red Sox (71-59) at Marlins (67-64): Three games
Rockies (50-80) at Nationals (61-71): Four games
Guardians (65-66) at Angels (52-79): Three games
Pirates (63-69) at Padres (71-60): Three games
Twins (63-68) at A’s (51-80): Three games
Reds (62-69) at Giants (52-78): Three games
Royals (58-74) at Blue Jays (64-68): Three games
Brewers (81-50) at Mets (59-72): Three games
Orioles (63-68) at Cardinals (66-66): Three games
