That was an exciting weekend of baseball we just had. Perhaps the best series of all came in Houston. In Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview, I had Tampa Bay-Houston at No. 3 on the top five series list. I spent a lot of time hyping up the Rays’ All-Star third baseman, Junior Caminero, after he took home the AL Player of the Month award just hours before the release of that article. I went as far as to say that he would be my AL MVP if the season ended on Friday. Caminero certainly made me look good in this series after homering in the first two contests to make it 11 homers in an 11-game span. It’s been an incredible run for Caminero, who just turned 23 on Sunday.
However, a name I left off the AL MVP candidate list for no other reason than his team’s overall record of 43-46 entering Friday’s series was Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. And folks, that was probably foolish on my part not to give him a mention as the only other true contender for the award. Statistically speaking, he’s definitely the top player in the American League, and after watching the stars go back and forth in those first two contests, I might have to reconsider my MVP selection. Alvarez hit three homers in the series, including a walk-off two-run tater on Saturday to give his team a 10-8 victory. He had two long balls and six ribbies in that contest, and after Houston’s 2-0 rubber game victory on Sunday to pull within one game of Texas for the final AL wild card spot, I can no longer consider the Astros a non-contender. If the season ended today, I might still give Caminero the slightest edge because of how much he’s meant to the first-place Rays in ’26, but where would the Astros be without Alvarez? My best guess would be nowhere near the postseason picture.
A quick statistical comparison between Caminero and Alvarez. It’s hard to argue against either player’s MVP-worthiness.
Caminero: 87 games, .288/.378/.561 slash line, 26 HR, 56 RBI, 12 2B, 57 R (Team record: 52-35, AL East leader)
Alvarez: 90 games, .320/.429/.637 slash line, 29 HR, 67 RBI, 16 2B, 62 R (Team record: 45-47, 2 ½ games behind Seattle in the AL West)
It’s a toss-up and could ultimately come down to whether Houston makes the playoffs. The one advantage Caminero has over Alvarez is that his team is playing much better in a stronger division. A division that includes a struggling Yankees squad hoping to make a run at Tampa Bay before the All-Star break. If that’s to happen, then this week’s No. 1 series is about as important as it gets in July.
No. 1: Yankees (49-40) at Rays (52-35)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I just spent most of the lead talking about the MVP candidates. What makes an MVP has been debatable for all eternity. Everyone has their own opinion on the matter, and that’s what makes it interesting when the results are finally revealed in November. For me, it has always come down to how much a player means to his team. Stats have to matter, but so does the overall value, which might even include things not seen on paper. Granted, most of the time, my MVP choice will be the best player on a good team. At the very least, the Most Valuable Player must come from a franchise that is in playoff contention. If you take that player off the club, how good would they be? If you take a player off a bad club, they will still be bad, so their value matters very little in the big picture of that team’s success.
I bring this up for this week’s No. 1 series because I never thought the Yankees would struggle like they are right now without Aaron Judge. When Judge first went on the IL in early June with his rib injury, the Yankees’ offense looked like it might be able to withstand a lengthy absence from their three-time MVP. New York went 12-8 in its first 20 contests without their captain. Scoring runs wasn’t an issue until a recent visit to Fenway Park on the final weekend of June set this team on a downward spiral. Boston swept New York in four games that weekend, and in the following two series, the Yankees lost five of six contests to a pair of losing AL Central squads, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins. Since June 25, New York has a 1-9 record, and in those 10 matches, they’ve averaged a mere 2.7 runs per game.
Now, the Pinstripes hit the road for the final seven games before the All-Star break to face the American League’s top club. They end the first half with a three-game set in Washington. Tampa Bay has the best home record in MLB at 31-12. Despite losing two of three at Houston over the weekend and seeing their eight-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, the Rays hold a four-game lead over New York in the AL East entering Monday.
If Tampa Bay wins this series, they’ll have at least a six-game advantage entering the first half’s final weekend. A sweep, and that lead will balloon to eight games. It’s undoubtedly the most intriguing and probably the most important series of the week. The Rays are 4-1 versus the Yanks this season.
Monday’s series opener will see New York’s Cam Schlittler (18 GS, 8-5, 2.08 ERA) take on Tampa Bay’s Griffin Jax (23 G, 12 GS, 4-5, 3.45 ERA).
No. 2: Brewers (55-33) at Cardinals (47-40)
Series length: Five games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) *Doubleheader on Tuesday for makeup of postponed contest on May 5.
Any five-game series automatically grabs my attention because we so rarely see it in the regular season. Any five-game series between playoff-contending division rivals automatically makes my top five series list. That’s what we have this week, thanks to a postponed second contest in an early May set between these clubs. It was a series that was ultimately split, 1-1, after the Brew Crew won 6-2 on May 6, exactly two months ago today. At the conclusion of that contest, the Brewers were 19-16 and five games out of first place in the NL Central. Since that time, they’ve not only won three more matches against St. Louis after sweeping them in Milwaukee in late May, but they’ve also gone 36-17 overall and now hold a six-game advantage over Chicago in the division.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won two consecutive series against Atlanta and the Cubs. After their 17-1 stunner at Wrigley Field in Friday’s opener, St. Louis shut out Chicago 3-0 on Saturday before dropping Sunday’s finale, 6-4. Entering this series, the Redbirds are tied with Miami for the final NL wild card position, and are only 1 ½ games behind Chicago and Philadelphia for the top WC spot.
Realistically, if the Cardinals have any shot at catching the three-time reigning NL Central champs, they’ll probably need to win this home series, if not four of five. I’m not saying the Cardinals are incapable of a second-half comeback, but I am saying that Milwaukee is a darn good squad. They’ve proven over the last three seasons that winning the division handily isn’t a problem. From ’23-’25, Milwaukee has won the NL Central by nine games, 10 games, and five games, respectively. St. Louis is 7 ½ games behind. Do you really believe that the Cards will make a run to the top if they drop this series?
Brewers southpaw Shane Drohan (17 G, 7 GS, 3-2, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod in Monday’s opener. He’ll face Cardinals seven-year veteran, Dustin May (16 GS, 5-6, 4.80 ERA).
No. 3: Guardians (47-44) at Twins (44-47)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
For most of this season, my AL Central discussions have revolved around the Guardians and White Sox. They are the top two clubs in the AL Central and just split a four-game series this weekend in Cleveland. Chicago has a one-game advantage on the Guardians and will host the Red Sox for three games beginning on Tuesday before wrapping up the first half with a home series versus the A’s.
The franchise I haven’t discussed often is the Minnesota Twins. I can justify that considering their mediocre play in the first half. Minnesota had a losing record in April and May, and finished 14-13 in June. Despite the so-so record over their first 91 contests, they are coming off a third consecutive series win after taking two of three contests at Yankee Stadium over the weekend.
When looking at Minnesota’s offense, I see a team performing far better than many expected in the preseason. Yes, Byron Buxton has done his thing (.271 BA, 25 HR, .575 SLG), and he’s certainly been their MVP. Whether he can stay on the field in the second half after yet another hip injury on Sunday while sliding into second base versus New York is to be determined. However, it’s not just Buxton putting up quality power numbers. Minnesota has three other players with at least 13 long balls, and as a team, they are second in the AL with a .417 slugging percentage. The Twins also rank in the AL’s top three in batting average (.247) and on-base percentage (.322), while leading the entire league with 448 runs scored. The bats are certainly not the reason why the Twins continue to post a losing record.
The pitching is the obvious issue with this club. Minnesota ranks last in the AL with a 5.28 reliever ERA and has the 13th-ranked overall ERA in the league at 4.78. The bullpen is 24-for-35 in save opportunities, and, surprisingly, that number is nowhere near the worst save percentage in the American League.
I could go on and on about Minnesota’s lack of pitching, but with this upcoming three-game series against Cleveland, the main focus has to be the standings. If the Twins sweep this series at home, they’ll be tied with the Guardians in the AL Central. In their only get-together this season, Minnesota won two of three games at Cleveland in early May. They’ll face each other three more times at Progressive Field, beginning two weeks from today, before wrapping up their season series with a trio of September contests back here at Target Field.
Tuesday’s opening pitching matchup pairs two arms with identical win-loss records and earned run averages. Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo (18 GS, 7-3, 3.86 ERA) versus Minnesota’s Taj Bradley (16 GS, 7-3, 3.86 ERA).
No. 4: Atlanta (52-36) at Pirates (46-45)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
A month ago today, Atlanta was 9 ½ games ahead in the NL East and in the midst of a series with the Pirates, one they would go on to sweep in three games. After that sweep over Pittsburgh in early June, Atlanta lost six of seven series before winning two of three matches over the Mets at Truist Park this past weekend. Atlanta will try for a series win over New York on Monday before traveling to PNC Park for the start of their series with the Buccos. They lead the NL East by three games over Philadelphia and 4 ½ over the surging Marlins (we’ll get to Miami in a bit).
Pittsburgh is about to play its third straight series against an NL East club. The Pirates split a four-game set at Philadelphia last week before winning a weekend series in Washington, 2-1. At three games back of Miami and St. Louis for the third wild card position, the Pirates have a chance to enter their final weekend series of the first half versus Milwaukee on a high note.
Both of these playoff contenders are looking for momentum heading into the second half. That alone makes this a series worth following.
No. 5: Mariners (47-44) at Marlins (49-42)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
This certainly ranks as the top interleague series of the week for my money. The AL West-leading Mariners face the hottest team in MLB since the start of June. Miami returns home after a 10-game road trip that saw them go 7-3 against the Cardinals, Rockies, and Athletics. The Fish outscored the A’s 28-15 in their three-game sweep at Sutter Health Park over the weekend and will now return home to wrap up the first half with this series versus Seattle, followed by a three-game set versus Cleveland.
Admittedly, like so many others, I loathed Marlins manager Clayton McCullough’s decision to pull Eury Pérez on Sunday after seven frames in the middle of a perfect game. Miami had an eight-run lead at that time and nearly coughed it up after the bullpen surrendered eight runs over the final two frames. I don’t want to get too deep into this, but baseball is the only sport I can think of that knows how to intentionally spoil big moments like the one we could have seen on Sunday had Perez been allowed to go for the 25th perfect game in MLB history. Sometimes this league forgets about the fans and the entertainment value, and far too often focuses on pitch counts, player health (Perez is always injured anyway), and all the other stuff that can ultimately ruin a spectator’s experience. Let Perez, who, after 92 pitches, was the youngest player to ever be pulled from a perfecto after seven frames, try for history. Even the A’s fans were booing the decision because they knew what was at stake.
Anyway, back to this matchup. Miami has the second-best home record in the National League at 28-17. They’ll look to take this series against a Mariners squad that will be without its best player until at least Friday. Julio Rodríguez is on the seven-day concussion injured list after being hit in the back of the head by a ball while sliding into second base early in Friday’s contest versus Toronto. It won’t get any easier for the M’s after this. Seattle ends the first half with a three-game set at Tampa Bay.
Missed the Top Five
Astros (45-47) at Nationals (46-45): Three games
Diamondbacks (44-45) at Padres (44-45): Four games
Blue Jays (42-48) at Giants (37-52): Three games
Rockies (37-54) at Dodgers (59-32): Three games
Cubs (50-40) at Orioles (42-49): Three games
A’s (41-49) at Tigers (40-50): Three games
Royals (36-54) at Mets (37-53): Three games
Phillies (50-40) at Reds (41-48): Three games
Red Sox (40-48) at White Sox (47-42): Three games
Angels (36-55) at Rangers (45-45): Three games
