We have a 13-game slate on Monday. That’s unusual. Generally, the start of the new week sees anywhere from seven to nine games, while the rest of the league has an off day. There are also four series that will be four games in length, and all of those begin today as well. Two of those lengthy sets you’ll read about in the top five series list below.
With the exception of one club, you’ll notice in this week’s top five a combination of series involving teams in or right on the cusp of a postseason berth (by on the cusp, I mean within two games). That one team that isn’t what I consider “on the cusp” is a franchise I mentioned in Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview as one that could make a run in its own division, despite a 9 ½-game deficit at the time. That would be the Detroit Tigers, who ended up sweeping the then division-leading White Sox at home over the weekend, and now, after those three victories, sit five games out of the AL wild card picture, and 7 ½ games behind Cleveland in the AL Central. The Guardians lost two of three at Houston over the weekend, helping Detroit gain a couple of games in the process.
Speaking of the two teams that Detroit is eyeing in the AL Central, let’s begin with this week’s No. 1 on the top five list.
No. 1: Guardians (41-37) at White Sox (39-37)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
It’s a strange feeling I’ve been getting lately while writing MLB Series Preview. Every time I think certain teams within the same division have surely met at some point earlier in the year, I’m blown away when they haven’t. I cannot wrap my head around how it’s possible for the league’s schedule makers to allow clubs in the same division not to meet in a series before late June. I felt this way about the Mets-Phillies series on Friday as well. It’s odd enough when squads don’t meet at least once in April or May. But June 22? Come on. That’s ridiculous.
With that in mind, here we go with the first meeting between the AL Central’s upper tier, separated by one game in the standings. I’m not sure what to make of these franchises right now. Honestly, I’m not sure what to make of the only division in MLB where every team has posted a negative run differential for the season. The White Sox have a -4 run differential, while the Guardians are at -7. Yet, because the American League has only three squads with positive run differentials (Yankees, Rays, and Mariners), I guess it’s not surprising that if the playoffs began today, Chicago and Cleveland would be in, and even the AL Central’s third-place club at a -18 run differential, the Minnesota Twins, are only one game behind Toronto for the third wild card spot. The bottom line is that right now, the AL is the obvious JV league in comparison to the Senior Circuit, which currently has 11 teams with .500 or better records (seven of which have a positive run differential).
That’s not to say that this AL Central series isn’t huge. It’s certainly entertaining, especially considering Chicago’s turnaround from a year ago and overall solid play this month, with the exception of being swept by Detroit on Sunday. This division is up for grabs, and we’re about to watch a matchup between two teams missing some key offensive weapons in Chicago’s Munetaka Murakami (hammy strain) and Cleveland’s José Ramírez (broken hamate bone). Both clubs are 4-6 over their last 10 contests.
Expected starting pitching matchups:
Monday: CLE – Gavin Williams (15 GS, 9-4, 3.83 ERA) versus CHW – Anthony Kay (15 G, 13 GS, 6-2, 4.61 ERA)
Tuesday: CLE – Parker Messick (15 GS, 7-3, 2.70 ERA) versus CHW – Sean Burke (15 G, 11 GS, 4-4, 3.89 ERA)
Wednesday: CLE – Tanner Bibee (16 GS, 2-8, 4.03 ERA) versus CHW – Erick Fedde (15 G, 8 GS, 2-6, 4.46 ERA)
No. 2: Phillies (42-35) at Nationals (40-38)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
There’s no arguing that two of the first four teams mentioned in this week’s top five list are the biggest turnaround stories in MLB. I’ve already discussed the White Sox at 39-37, and now at No. 2, we have the Washington Nationals, also at two games over .500, taking on the Phillies. Chicago was the AL Central’s last-place finisher a year ago at 60-102, while Washington’s 66-96 record was good enough for a spot in the NL East’s basement. Today, both franchises are in the postseason hunt for the first time in years. The White Sox haven’t been to the playoffs since 2021. The last time the Nats suited up in October came in the 2019 World Series.
I was about to throw in the towel and take a long break from writing this article, had Washington and Philadelphia not met this season. Just another case of two squads in the same division not playing until late June. Fortunately, they did face each other for one series way back in March and early April. Philadelphia won that set, 2-1. Therefore, I’m staying put. No need to throw in the towel at this time.
Baseball’s highest scoring team is coming off a hard-fought series loss at Tampa Bay, and will look to rebound at home this week in what could end up being a crucial four contests between these clubs. Washington is tied with Miami and San Diego in the NL standings and sits a half-game behind the Cubs for the final wild card position. The Phillies are 2 ½ games ahead of the Nats in the division and wild card race. Philadelphia continues to play well in June, and after winning two of three contests versus the last-place Mets over the weekend, they’ve now won five of six series this month.
No. 3: Yankees (46-30) at Tigers (33-44)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Settle in for two meetings over the next week-plus between these 2025 postseason clubs. The Yankees and Tigers will face each other three times this week and will meet again in New York seven days from now.
I’ve already talked about the Tigers trying to make a run in the AL Central, and after gaining some ground in the division over the weekend with their three-game sweep of Chicago, they now face a Yankees team that just lost two of three contests at home to Cincinnati. Despite my belief that Detroit has a legitimate opportunity to make a run in the AL Central, its overall record can’t be ignored. At 11 games under .500, this team isn’t very good. The Tigers’ 6-22 record in May can’t be overlooked, regardless of their solid 11-6 win-loss so far in June. If they are to make a serious run, Detroit’s best hope is that Chicago and Cleveland beat up on each other this week, while at the same time, taking advantage of their six-game homestand versus New York and Houston before next week’s rematch with the Yanks in the Bronx.
New York continues to battle Tampa Bay atop the AL East (two games ahead of the Rays). The good news for the Pinstripes is that none of the other three teams in the division is making serious noise. It seems very unlikely right now that New York finishes anywhere outside of the top two in the AL East standings.
We’ll see if Detroit has some momentum coming in after their nice performance versus Chicago. There are some very tune-in-worthy starting pitching matchups forthcoming over the next three days.
Monday: NYY- Gerrit Cole (5 GS, 2-1, 2.57 ERA) versus HOU – Framber Valdez (15 GS, 3-5, 4.09 ERA)
Tuesday: NYY – Carlos Rodón (7 GS, 3-2, 3.50 ERA) versus HOU – Casey Mize (10 GS, 2-4, 2.58 ERA)
Wednesday: NYY – Ryan Weathers (14 GS, 2-5, 4.13 ERA) versus HOU – Tarik Skubal (9 GS, 3-3, 3.02 ERA)
No. 4: Astros (37-42) at Blue Jays (38-39)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
A series between two losing clubs, but one in which I can give you two solid reasons to watch.
No. 1: Last year’s third-place finisher for the AL Cy Young, Hunter Brown, will make his second start since returning from the IL with a right shoulder strain. Brown tossed 5 ⅔ frames of one-run ball in his last outing versus Houston on June 16. He’ll face the American League’s strikeout leader, Toronto’s Dylan Cease, in Monday’s opener. Cease enters with a 4-3 record, 2.73 ERA, and 110 punchouts over 73 innings pitched.
No. 2: The 2020 AL Cy Young winner, Toronto’s Shane Bieber, is set to make his 2026 debut on Tuesday after landing on the 60-day IL with right shoulder inflammation before the season began. Since 2022, I have no idea what to expect from Bieber, but if at some point this season, he finds anywhere close to the form that made him one of the top right-handers in the league, then that’s a game-changer for the Blue Jays. He’ll take on Houston’s Peter Lambert (11 GS, 6-4, 3.23 ERA) in the second contest of this series.
I’ll even give you a third reason to follow this series. Houston is only two games behind Toronto for that final AL wild card spot. There are three other squads hovering around the .500-mark wedged in between these clubs. Even though the combined record of these teams isn’t impressive, the return of key SPs like Brown and Bieber to their respective rotations certainly makes them postseason threats if they remain healthy. Always a big if in today’s game. But enjoy it while it lasts. This could be a good series.
No. 5: Diamondbacks (39-38) at Cardinals (41-34)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I had half a mind to put one of four other series at the No. 5 spot, and a solid case could have been made for any of those choices. I’m going with St. Louis and Arizona here, probably against my better judgment, especially considering that there isn’t one starting pitching matchup in this series that I would find time for.
We’re looking at two clubs that rank in the middle or near the bottom of MLB in three key starting pitching categories.
ERA: Arizona (4.41, 16th ranked) – St. Louis (4.26, 11th)
WHIP: Arizona (1.32, 18th) – St. Louis (1.33, 20th)
Opponent BA: Arizona (.260, 25th) – St. Louis (.263, 27th)
There are plenty of other matchups left off this week’s top five that would give us better starting pitching numbers than this one. But, I’m going with the four-game set between the National League’s top wild card holder and an Arizona club that continues to fight through plenty of inconsistencies, yet won’t go away in the race (currently one game behind the Baby Bears for the third wild card position). The four-game length and the overall importance of this set, as far as NL wild card implications, ultimately sold it for me.
My eyes are on the Cardinals’ rookie second baseman, JJ Wetherholt. He has a .333/.403/.500 slash line in 15 June contests, and continues to lead all National League rookies in hits (74) and runs scored (49) while acting as the everyday leadoff man for St. Louis. Take your pick for the NL Rookie of the Year between Wetherholt and the Reds’ first baseman, Sal Stewart. Right now, given the impact of Wetherholt on his team’s success, he’d be my choice for the award at this time.
These teams will meet again in Arizona immediately following the All-Star break in mid-July.
Missed the Top Five
Royals (32-46) at Rays (43-31): Four games
Rangers (37-40) at Marlins (40-38): Three games
Cubs (40-37) at Mets (34-43): Four games
Brewers (46-29) at Reds (37-39): Three games
Dodgers (49-29) at Twins (38-41): Three games
Red Sox (31-44) at Rockies (30-48): Three games
Orioles (37-42) at Angels (32-47): Three games
Atlanta (48-28) at Padres (39-37): Three games
Mariners (40-39) at Pirates (39-39): Three games
A’s (38-40) at Giants (31-46): Three games
