This weekend’s No. 1 selection on the top five series list was probably the easiest choice I’ve made so far this year. Would anyone object to Milwaukee at Atlanta? I went through every series, and it was the only one that was instantly circled as a top-five matchup. The rest of the list I had to think about because no other stood out as a must-have top-five selection.
Below, you’ll see two interesting series between division rivals and a pair of interleague matchups involving legitimate playoff contenders. However, none of those series comes close to this weekend’s No. 1 matchup in terms of intrigue and importance, between two National League division leaders fighting it out with the Dodgers for the Senior Circuit’s best record.
No. 1: Brewers (45-27) at Atlanta (46-27)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
There are a few places we could begin with this series. Let’s start with the obvious. These are two of the top three squads in baseball, record-wise. Only the Dodgers, at 48-27, are technically ahead, but not in the loss column. All three NL division leaders have 27 losses entering the weekend. Los Angeles hosts the Orioles for three games beginning on Friday. That was a fringe top-five series for me, but in the end, it missed the cut.
Milwaukee is ahead of St. Louis by 5 ½ games in the NL Central and is coming off a 2-1 series win over the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians. The Brew Crew won that series without the services of their top starting pitchers, Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison. We’ll see both of those arms in this three-game set with Atlanta. Misiorowski goes in Friday’s opener, while Harrison takes the ball on Saturday. Since we’re on the topic, let’s look at the expected SP matchups.
Friday: MIL – Jacob Misiorowski (14 GS, 8-2, 1.34 ERA) versus ATL – Martín Pérez (14 G, 10 GS, 5-3, 2.90 ERA)
Saturday: MIL – Kyle Harrison (13 GS, 8-1, 2.47 ERA) versus ATL – Chris Sale (13 GS, 8-5, 2.30 ERA)
Sunday: MIL – Robert Gasser (5 GS, 0-3, 4.88 ERA) versus ATL – Bryce Elder (15 GS, 5-4, 3.15 ERA)
I don’t think there’s much to say about Saturday’s matchup between two of the best southpaws in MLB. That’s must-watch television. Friday’s duel between Misiorowski and Perez obviously favors Milwaukee’s ace, who is coming off one of the best SP performances in recent memory against Philadelphia last Friday. There’s very little to add about a pitcher who has yielded only one earned run over his last eight starts dating back to May 1. He’s the best hurler going right now in the big leagues. It should be advantage Brewers on Friday.
Keep an eye on Sunday’s matchup between Gasser and Elder. If it weren’t for a blown save on Tuesday by the MLB wins leader, Aaron Ashby, Gasser would have collected his first W of the season after tossing 5 ⅔ scoreless frames versus Cleveland. Despite the blown save, Ashby is now 10-0 on the year, and it’s weird to think that a reliever could possibly have the most wins in baseball heading into July. He might be one of the more fascinating middle relief stories in my lifetime if he continues to chase the all-time single-season relief wins record of 18 set in 1959 by Pittsburgh’s Roy Face.
Coming into this series, Atlanta has been scuffling a bit. Not only are they 4-6 over their last 10 contests, resulting in three consecutive series losses, but they also received some bad news recently about 2023 NL MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., who has been out with a hamstring injury since June 10. According to a report from the team’s beat reporter, Mark Bowman, he is a long way off from returning. Now the question is, can Atlanta sustain its seven-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East without their right fielder? We’ll find out. One thing that can’t be disputed: Atlanta won the 2021 World Series without Acuna.
Speaking of some teams chasing Atlanta in the NL East, let’s get to No. 2 on the list.
No. 2: Mets (34-41) at Phillies (40-35)
Series length: Three games (Thursday, Saturday, Sunday) *Mets won Thursday’s opener, 6-4.
This is the first series of the year between these NL East rivals. Gosh, it’s June 19, and to think these franchises finally played for the first time on Thursday is mind-boggling (see score above). They’ll face each other again next weekend in New York.
Alright, admittedly, I’m not sold on the Mets’ chances of making a run at an NL wild-card spot. Despite being only five games back of the third WC position, there are too many quality teams ahead of them in the standings. I’m not seeing anything on paper that makes me believe New York is much better than their current record. Their MLB rank of 28th in slugging percentage (.373) tells me that, aside from the National League’s top slugger, Juan Soto (.582), they don’t have much else in the power department. The next best slugger on the club right now is first baseman Jared Young (.424).
As for the starting pitching? Let’s be honest, there hasn’t been one name in the rotation that has met or exceeded preseason expectations so far in ’26. The Mets own the 17th-ranked starter ERA in MLB (4.42). Nolan McLean finally looked the part of a future ace on Wednesday versus Cincinnati (7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K), and if he keeps that up, then maybe New York will have a solid 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation along with Freddy Peralta (15 GS, 4-4, 3.67 ERA) over the next three-plus months. However, after those arms, good luck finding a trustworthy No. 3.
Back to this series. I’ve been wrong a couple of times this season with team projections after slow starts, and maybe New York does have a run in them. They won the series opener on Thursday behind two solo homers from Soto, and with Friday off (World Cup game across the street at Lincoln Financial Field), they’ll rest up for a pair of difficult matchups on Saturday and Sunday versus Philadelphia’s top arms, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, respectively. Sanchez (15 GS, 8-3, 1.82 ERA) will face Peralta (15 GS, 5-5, 3.90 ERA) on Saturday in what is easily the headline duel of the weekend.
No. 3: White Sox (39-34) at Tigers (30-44)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Let’s stick with another lopsided division matchup in terms of records. Much like the Mets above, Detroit finds itself in a first-half hole, at 6 ½ games out of the final wild card position in its league. There are two factors that I believe favor Detroit going forward.
No. 1: Tarik Skubal is back. Whether he will perform up to his standard after returning from elbow surgery remains to be seen. He tossed 80 pitches over 4 ⅔ frames in his first start back from the IL last Saturday. He surrendered three runs (two earned), and allowed five knocks while striking out five Guardians in the loss. The real question is, if Detroit plays well over the next couple of weeks and finds itself within reach of a postseason berth, will the reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner be taken off the trade block?
No. 2: The Tigers are in a league where it’s very possible that the third wild card squad finishes with a .500 or lower record at season’s end. And if we’re being serious, when it comes to the AL Central race, Detroit sits in last place at 9 ½ games back of the division-leading White Sox and Guardians. One year ago on this day, Cleveland trailed Detroit by that same 9 ½-game mark, and we all know who won the division at season’s end. I figure if Cleveland could stun Detroit in ’25, then, perhaps, in a weakish division, the Tigers have an opportunity to return the favor.
Keep this in mind. The main difference for this year’s Detroit club compared to Cleveland’s one year ago is that the Guardians were in second place on June 19. They didn’t have to leapfrog any clubs to catch the Tigers in the end. If Detroit is to make a run, they’ll not only have to catch Cleveland, but also the sub-.500 Royals and Twins, and the franchise they will face three times this weekend, the Chicago White Sox.
Chicago’s rough June schedule is over in theory. Even though they did drop two out of three contests to the Yankees this week after winning two series over the National League’s best squads, Atlanta and Los Angeles, the White Sox still went a respectable 5-3 in their eight games versus those three upper-tier clubs. Now, they hit the road to take on Detroit, a team they swept in their home park at the end of May.
Keep an eye on Sunday’s finale between expected starting pitchers Davis Martin (14 GS, 9-3, 3.31 ERA) and the return of Detroit’s Justin Verlander, who hasn’t pitched since March due to hip inflammation. Martin surrendered nine earned runs in by far his worst outing of the season during Chicago’s 12-2 loss to the Yankees on Tuesday.
No. 4: Blue Jays (37-38) at Cubs (39-36)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
This could be a fun series, and one that will start on Friday afternoon shortly before the release of this article.
The Blue Jays looked solid during their road series sweep at Fenway Park earlier this week. Toronto outscored the worst home team in baseball, 13-4, in the series. If the Jays, who entered that series with a 13-20 road record, can take a couple of games at Wrigley Field this weekend, then things could be looking up for the defending AL champs going forward. Toronto has a 10-game homestand beginning next week that will take them into July. They’ll face three clubs with losing records over that stretch (3 vs. Astros, 4 vs. Rangers, 3 vs. Mets), and by the end of June, we could be looking at a team in a comfortable wild-card position if things go well.
Before the Jays return to Rogers Centre, they’ll take on a Cubs team with a 22-16 record at home, a much better mark than Boston’s 12-25 win-loss record at Fenway. Chicago is coming off a 2-1 series win at Wrigley versus the Rockies. After this weekend’s series, they’ll go on the road to face the Mets and Brewers.
I like the opening SP matchup on Friday afternoon between Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (15 GS, 4-4, 3.41 ERA) and Chicago’s Ben Brown, who has a 1.74 ERA over 62 frames this season. Let’s just hope that by the time this preview is released, both pitchers are still keeping runs off the board. Otherwise, I’ll look foolish for highlighting this battle.
No. 5: Padres (38-35) at Rangers (35-39)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I was torn between this interleague series and the one featuring the Nationals and Rays. I went back and forth between them for the No. 5 slot. Ultimately, my decision came down to the expected pitching matchups, which easily favor San Diego and Texas. Remember, Washington might be the highest scoring team in MLB right now, but when it comes to pitching, we’re looking at the 25th-ranked team ERA at 4.65. There’s not one starting pitcher, other than Foster Griffin (15 GS, 7-2, 3.32 ERA), whom I would feel comfortable about highlighting in a potential pitcher’s duel, and he’s not even going in this series. In fact, since the Max Scherzer-led 2019 World Series club, I can’t think of more than one or two SPs that have excited me. And “excited” might be an exaggeration.
Based on the process of elimination shown above, in this series, we have two clubs knocking on the wild-card door. The Padres currently hold the third NL WC spot with the aforementioned Nationals and Cubs. Each week, they are falling further behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and begin this weekend nine games back of the division lead. It’s looking like wild card or nothing for the Friars.
On the other hand, in an almost unfair situation compared to San Diego, Texas is only three games behind Seattle for the AL West lead, despite being four games under .500. Think about that: San Diego is 38-35 and likely out of its own division race. That’s nutty, and part of why I’m less and less in favor of having divisions anymore, especially considering how many fewer head-to-head matchups occur between division opponents. But that’s a topic for another day.
I said that it was the pitching that favored this series over Washington and Tampa Bay. Let me back that up with the expected SP matchups, and then we’ll call it a day.
Friday: SD – Randy Vásquez (14 GS, 6-4, 3.63 ERA) versus TEX – Jacob deGrom (14 GS, 5-4, 3.17 ERA)
Saturday: SD – Walker Buehler (14 GS, 4-3, 4.14 ERA) versus TEX- Nathan Eovaldi (14 GS, 6-7, 4.23 ERA)
Sunday: SD – Lucas Giolito (5 GS, 2-2, 4.56 ERA) versus TEX – MacKenzie Gore (15 GS, 4-6, 4.27 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Angels (30-46) at A’s (37-38): Four games *A’s won Thursday’s opener, 5-0.
Reds (35-38) at Yankees (45-28): Three games
Nationals (39-36) at Rays (41-30): Three games
Giants (31-43) at Marlins (37-38): Three games
Guardians (40-35) at Astros (35-41): Three games
Cardinals (40-33) at Royals (31-45): Three games *Royals won Thursday’s opener, 14-6.
Pirates (38-37) at Rockies (28-47): Three games
Twins (36-40) at Diamonbacks ( 38-36): Three games
Orioles (35-41) at Dodgers (48-27): Three games
Red Sox (29-43) at Mariners (39-37): Three games
