As the season has progressed, it’s become far easier to create a top-five series list by using the process of elimination. What do I mean by that? Over the first couple of months, the hardest part of making a list twice a week was knowing every franchise was still alive in some way. Sure, we all could tell by June that the Rockies, Royals, Angels, and maybe one or two others, were going to be longshots at best to stay in the playoff hunt. But everyone else had a chance, including teams like the Red Sox, who appeared all but dead before the start of July.
Now we’re in late August, and when I go series by series and look at the records and standings, it’s becoming easier to eliminate a half-dozen or so matchups immediately. For instance, this weekend, every series outside of the top five includes at least one club that is three or more games out of the postseason picture. In fact, other than the Cubs-Mariners series, every set that missed the top five has at least one team four or more games out of a postseason spot. Given that this weekend’s big list includes 10 franchises currently in the playoff field or within 2 ½ games of it, I found the selection process fairly easy.
As per usual, the order from 1-5 could be up for debate, but I believe this weekend’s No. 1 choice is indisputable.
No. 1: Atlanta (75-53) at Brewers (79-49)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Chris Sale versus Jacob Misiorowski…
That’s enough, right? If I ended this section with only those two names, that alone would make this series worthy of the top-five list. Fans visiting American Family Field for Friday’s opener between these NL division leaders are in for a treat. Atlanta’s Sale versus Milwaukee’s Misiorowski at 4:10 p.m. ET is one of those pitching matchups that baseball fans everywhere should be intrigued by, considering how infrequently we get to see a duel between top-10 pitchers. There’s an argument to be made that the 37-year-old Sale (22 GS, 12-8, 2.16 ERA) is a borderline top-five arm given that he has the second-lowest ERA in MLB, behind only the pitcher he is about to face today, The Miz (23 GS, 12-5, 1.75 ERA). I could keep hyping up this pitching matchup with stats galore, but there’s a lot more to this series than simply one potentially epic battle on Friday.
If the playoffs began today, Milwaukee would be the National League’s No. 1 seed and, with that, would earn a bye to the NLDS. Atlanta is four games behind the Brewers for MLB’s best record. The Dodgers enter Friday two games behind Milwaukee and two up on Atlanta in the standings. It’s a tight race for the league’s No. 1 seed, which makes this weekend’s three-game set between World Series contenders all the more important.
Milwaukee has the NL’s best home record at 43-23. Atlanta won two of three June meetings versus the Brew Crew at Truist Park. In that series, Misiorowski took the loss in Game 1 after surrendering two runs over six frames. In the second contest, Sale tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings for a no-decision. Neither team is what I’d call “comfortably ahead of the pack” in their respective divisions, but I also wouldn’t say that either is in trouble at the moment of losing their current leads. The Brewers are five games ahead of Chicago in the NL Central, while Atlanta has that same number advantage over Philadelphia in the NL East.
No. 2: Blue Jays (63-66) at Yankees (72-55)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Make it seven consecutive series wins by the Blue Jays after taking care of business this week at Tropicana Field. Toronto won two of three contests versus the first-place Rays, and even though their hopes of repeating as AL East champs are over (14 games out of first place entering Friday), at three games under .500, Canada’s team is only a half-game back of Minnesota and Texas for the final wild card spot. It’s actually been a heckuva run for a squad that’s been hit with a slew of injuries this season while also getting a whole lot of nothing from its star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has been on the seven-day concussion IL since last Friday following a collision at Yankee Stadium. Guerrero, who is slugging a ridiculously low .356 on the year, is expected back in the lineup this weekend.
When these rivals met last week in New York, the Blue Jays won the series, 2-1. These clubs are now even in their head-to-head matchups with five wins apiece. The Yankees are coming off a series sweep over Baltimore and have won four straight contests entering Friday. They still trail Tampa Bay by four games in the AL East, but have a four-game cushion over Boston for the league’s top wild-card spot.
This is the last series of the year between these clubs. Here are the expected pitching matchups.
Friday: TOR – Spencer Arrighetti (17 GS, 7-5, 4.60 ERA) versus NYY – Cam Schlittler (26 GS, 10-6, 2.19 ERA)
Saturday: TOR – Dylan Cease (23 GS, 7-5, 2.42 ERA) versus NYY – Ryan Weathers (24 GS, 5-7, 3.56 ERA)
Sunday: TOR – José Soriano (25 GS, 10-6, 3.23 ERA) versus NYY – Carlos Rodón (10 GS, 4-2, 3.22 ERA)
No. 3: Cardinals (66-63) at Phillies (70-58)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If it weren’t for a dropped ball with two outs in the ninth by Reds outfielder Dane Myers in Thursday’s craziest game of the ’26 season, then St. Louis would not only have lost that five-game series at Cincy, but they would have entered this matchup with Philadelphia 3 ½ games out of the NL wild card race and 5 ½ behind the Phillies for the No. 2 WC position. But after that costly error by Myers in center, the Redbirds scored six times and held on for a 10-9 victory. You can read more about that wild affair in this morning’s MLB News & Moments. With Thursday’s win, St. Louis is 7-3 over its last 10 contests and 2 ½ games out of a wild card berth. Now they’ll take on the hottest team in baseball and one that comes into Friday on a six-game winning streak.
Philadelphia is in an odd position right now, and a lot of it has to do with the strength of the National League as a whole. As already mentioned, the Phillies are still five games back of Atlanta in the NL East, but maybe more surprisingly, despite being a healthy 12 games over .500, they trail Chicago by four games for the top NL wild-card spot. In fact, the Phils are closer to being on the outside of the playoff picture (Arizona is one game out of the NL WC field and trails Philly by three games) than they are to securing home-field advantage in the NLWC. There’s a lot of work still to be done in the City of Brotherly Love if this franchise is going to make the postseason. This is a huge series for both clubs. Last week, St. Louis won two of three games at Busch Stadium.
Cardinals right-hander Hunter Dobbins (10 G, 7 GS, 3-3, 3.42 ERA) faces Phillies southpaw Jesús Luzardo (25 GS, 11-5, 3.23 ERA) in Friday’s opener.
No. 4: Twins (63-65) at Padres (68-60)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
A highly relevant interleague series between the third wild-card holders in each league grabs the No. 4 slot. It’s hard to get excited about a Twins franchise that is two games under .500 and has a 7-10 record in August. This isn’t a great Minnesota club by any means, and the -41 run differential on the season backs that up. The Twins rank 26th in both starter ERA (4.55) and reliever ERA (4.71), yet they have a better record than teams like Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit, all of which have staff earned run averages under 4.00. So if pitching isn’t the key to Minnesota’s success (if you want to call it that), then it must be the offense, which ranks in the AL’s top three in runs scored and OPS. The Twins and Rangers are tied for the final AL WC spot, while five other franchises are within three games.
The National League’s third wild-card holder is in a slightly different situation than Minnesota, given that they have fewer clubs to worry about in the standings. San Diego is one game ahead of Arizona for the last NL WC spot and two games behind Philly for the No. 5 seed. After Arizona, only the Cardinals are within three games of that final wild card, which in some ways should be less stressful for San Diego than it is for the Twins. However, both clubs are one series loss away from falling out of the postseason field, which makes this matchup very interesting.
Keep an eye on Friday’s series opener. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove is expected to make his first appearance on the bump since 2024 (torn UCL). I have no idea how long of a leash Musgrove has in this contest, but I’ve got my eye on his potential matchup with Minnesota’s Josh Bell, who is hitting .361 with four homers and 14 ribbies in August, and is a lifetime 6-for-11 versus the Padres right-hander. Bell’s 77 RBI ranks sixth in the American League. Musgrove will face Twins lefty Connor Prielipp (17 GS, 3-6, 5.34 ERA).
No. 5: Rays (76-61) at Orioles (61-67)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The wild-card hopeful Orioles and Blue Jays are swapping opponents. As mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays are taking on the Yankees this weekend, a day after New York swept Baltimore on the road. Now the O’s will welcome a Rays squad to Camden Yards that is 2-6 over its last eight contests, which included a 3-1 series loss at home to Baltimore last weekend. What does all this mean? For starters, a change of scenery might be good for the American League’s best home team by record, considering they’ve dropped two consecutive series at Tropicana Field. It also means that because Baltimore won last weekend’s series versus Tampa Bay, they only need one more victory to win the season series with the AL’s current No. 1 seed. The O’s are 6-4 versus Tampa Bay this year, and at two games out of the AL wild-card picture and winless since defeating the Rays last Sunday, this is an important three days for the home club.
Friday’s expected pitching matchup will see Tampa Bay’s struggling Freddy Peralta, who is winless with a 7.53 ERA over 14 ⅓ frames since coming over from the Mets at the Trade Deadline. He’ll face Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers (23 GS, 8-8, 4.15 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Giants (52-75) at Red Sox (68-59): Three games
Nationals (61-68) at Marlins (64-64): Three games
Mets (58-70) at White Sox (66-61): Three games
Tigers (61-66) at Royals (55-74): Three games
A’s (49-79) at Astros (64-64): Three games
Angels (51-77) at Rangers (63-65): Three games
Guardians (62-66) at Rockies (50-77): Three games
Reds (61-67) at Diamondbacks (67-61): Three games
Pirates (63-66) at Dodgers (77-51): Three games
Cubs (74-54) at Mariners (60-68): Three games
