If you haven’t been living under a rock for the last two days, then you’re probably aware that the Boston Red Sox finally saw their winning streak end at a franchise-tying best 15 games on Wednesday. It’s been quite a ride for the Sox, who began July with a 37-47 record. After losing the back end of Wednesday’s doubleheader versus Baltimore, they are now 15-2 this month, and in that span have gone from 5 ½ games out of a wild card spot to a half-game behind Cleveland for the second AL WC berth. Now, with the momentum from that winning streak finally at an end, we’ll see what Boston has in store this weekend versus the struggling Blue Jays. Spoiler alert: Toronto vs. Boston did not make this weekend’s top-five series list. Let’s find out who did.
No. 1: Mariners (51-52) at Rangers (51-51)
Series length: Four games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday)
There are a lot of things about these teams that I don’t like, and their records back this up.
For starters, I can’t understand Seattle’s season-long offensive woes, given how much better it performed in 2025 with the same big names leading the way. I’m talking about Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Josh Naylor for the most part. All three have underperformed, while the only offensive player on the roster who’s been solid all season, and would certainly be my team MVP right now, has been Randy Arozarena (.281/.380/.443 slash line). At some point the bats have to break through, right? Maybe not in this exceptionally weak AL West, but I have a difficult time believing that a club hitting an MLB-worst .229 can win any division.
As for the Rangers, it’s the mediocrity from game-to-game that concerns me. How can a franchise with a -30 run differential be leading their respective division after 102 games? It probably helps that Texas has an American League-best 18-10 record in one-run games. However, that also means they are probably getting crushed in many of their losses. Take July, for instance. The Rangers are 7-9 this month. In only four of those nine defeats has Texas lost by three or fewer runs. All of their other losses have been by five runs or more, including a 13-1 loss to the last-place Angels on July 8, and a 15-1 defeat last Friday in Atlanta.
So, how can I rank this series between two mediocre squads at No. 1? The short answer: division importance, league relevance, and it’s a four-game series.
The division importance factor is extremely high. These clubs haven’t met since playing six times in April. Texas won four of those contests, including a series sweep at Globe Life Field where they’ll play this series.
The league relevance factor is also fairly high when we consider that there are only five AL clubs with winning records. Right now, Seattle is two games out of a wild card berth, and with a series victory this weekend, they’d lead the AL West, while Texas would be on the outside of the postseason picture.
The four-game series factor certainly has to be considered in a key division matchup like this one. These clubs will meet once more in early September. If this division continues to seesaw back-and-forth, then it’s possible that we could have a tie at season’s end. If that happens, then these head-to-head meetings will ultimately decide the winner. Houston is the only other team realistically in the AL West race, currently two games back.
No. 2: Cubs (57-45) at Pirates (53-50)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If these clubs were playing in the AL West, then it’s almost a certainty that this series would rank No. 1 on this weekend’s top-five list ahead of Seattle and Texas. Like the M’s and Rangers, they’d be battling for division supremacy. Unfortunately for these NL Central teams, they play in the same division as the 64-38 Brew Crew, and if the season ended today, Milwaukee would have another relatively easy division crown to their name. The Brewers have a seven-game lead on Chicago and an 11 ½-game advantage on Pittsburgh. It’s not close right now. But the overall importance of this series in the wild-card picture can’t go unnoticed.
Pittsburgh is 4-3 versus Chicago in ’26. These teams split their last series at PNC Park in late May, 2-2. These are two of the better offensive squads in MLB. Both rank in the top five in runs and OPS, and while I’m always in favor of a team that hits its way on base rather than drawing walks (The Pirates lead MLB with a .261 team batting average), both clubs rank in the top three in on-base percentage. Pittsburgh’s .339 OBP is one point higher than Chicago’s .338-mark.
As far as this weekend’s pitching matchups. Keep an eye on Saturday’s duel between Chicago’s Shota Imanaga (20 GS, 6-8, 3.91 ERA) and Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes (21 GS, 9-8, 3.43 ERA). In Imanaga’s lone start versus the Pirates on April 10, he tossed six no-hit frames in a no-decision effort. Skenes struck out 10 Cubbies and allowed one earned run over 5 ⅓ innings in a 7-2 loss on May 28.
No. 3: Yankees (57-45) at Phillies (56-47)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Here is what I’ve learned about the Yankees and Phillies over the last seven days. They are good teams, but not Dodgers-good. Los Angeles visited the Bronx last weekend and won two out of three contests. Following that meeting, they traveled to Citizens Bank Park and won the final two games versus Philadelphia for a series win. Both clubs had a chance to take down the two-time defending champions at home, but neither succeeded. Therefore, if I were to make some sort of power-ranking chart today, I’m putting the Dodgers and Brewers in Tier 1, and the Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Atlanta, and the Cubs in Tier 2.
Tier 2 is still good, and certainly this upcoming three-game set between two clubs hoping to gain ground in their respective division races will be fun to follow. New York trails Tampa Bay by two games in the AL East, while the Phillies are 4 ½ games behind Atlanta in the NL East after dropping their first two series of the second half to the Mets and Dodgers, respectively.
Friday’s starting pitching matchup pairs New York’s Cam Schlittler (21 GS, 9-6, 2.20 ERA) and Philadelphia’s Jesús Luzardo (20 GS, 9-4, 3.43 ERA). Luzardo has a 3-0 record in three July starts spanning 18 frames. He’s struck out 27 batters this month while allowing only two runs.
No. 4: Guardians (54-50) at Rays (59-43)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
All Tampa Bay needed to get back on track after being swept in four games last weekend at Fenway Park was another four-game series versus an AL East opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays won three of four contests at Rogers Centre leading up to this series with Cleveland. As far as I’m concerned, Toronto’s playoff chances took a huge dive with that series loss, and will not pass at least six other teams in the American League standings to capture a postseason spot in ’26. The defending AL champions are in trouble, and that’s largely due to Tampa Bay’s 8-2 record versus the Blue Jays this season.
Now the Rays are home for nine games versus three American League division and wild-card contenders. Following this three-game set with Cleveland, Tampa Bay welcomes the aforementioned AL West-leading Rangers before taking on the current AL Central leader, the Chicago White Sox. The Rays continue to have the best home record in baseball at 35-15.
Cleveland comes in on a bit of a downer after splitting a four-game set with the visiting Twins. The Guardians won the first two games of that series before dropping the final two contests, which allowed the White Sox to increase their division lead to 1 ½ games over the defending AL Central champs.
I’m looking at the expected pitching matchups this weekend, and from top to bottom, I don’t think there’s a better overall starting pitching series than what we’re in store for at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay and Cleveland rank in MLB’s top seven in starter ERA at 3.63 and 3.72, respectively. The six arms expected to take the bump over the next three days are a big reason for those solid earned run averages.
Friday: CLE – Joey Cantillo (21 GS, 8-5, 3.74 ERA) versus TB – Shane McClanahan (18 GS, 8-6, 3.16 ERA)
Saturday: CLE – Tanner Bibee (21 GS, 4-9, 3.86 ERA) versus TB – Nick Martinez (19 GS, 9-2, 2.59 ERA)
Sunday: CLE – Parker Messick (20 GS, 8-5, 2.68 ERA) versus TB – Drew Rasmussen (19 GS, 8-5, 3.28 ERA)
No. 5: Diamondbacks (54-49) at Nationals (52-51)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The Nationals are such an oddball team. I have no idea if they are the squad that came out of the All-Star break with a dominant 23-4 victory in Sacramento versus the A’s, or the one that lost 15-1 the following day to the same club. Can Washington get some pitching at the Trade Deadline to complement the fantastic offense that leads MLB with 567 runs scored (24 more runs than the next closest team on the list, the Pittsburgh Pirates)? Or, are they going to hope that performances like the one they got from Cade Cavalli during Wednesday’s 8-0 victory at Coors Field will continue and be enough to support an offense that deserves far more help from the pitching staff than it’s currently getting?
I’m not sure what Washington’s plans are over the next week-plus when it comes to bolstering their staff, but I know that they will not sneak into the playoffs unless some upgrades are made either in the rotation, and probably even more importantly, to a bullpen that ranks last in the National League with a 5.09 ERA and 27 blown saves.
Arizona is an enigma. I can play the same question game as I did with Washington and ask who exactly the Arizona Diamondbacks are. Is it the team that went 12-15 in June and struggled against winning clubs? Or is it the one we’re seeing in July that has won three straight series, including their most impressive showing of the campaign in Los Angeles, when they swept the Dodgers prior to the All-Star break?
It’s difficult to say who the D-backs are because the overall numbers still rank them somewhere in the middle of the pack. Their offense can be very good, as they’ve shown recently by scoring 31 runs over their last three contests. However, this season, they rank in the middle to bottom third in every major offensive category, including runs scored (13th), batting average (16th), and OPS (20th). On the pitching front, Arizona’s 4.37 team ERA ranks 16th in MLB, while their 1.33 WHIP and .261 opponent batting average put them in the lower third of league ranks.
Either way I spin this series, it’s still interesting and is undoubtedly worth a top-five spot considering the NL wild-card standings. Entering Friday, the Diamondbacks have a two-game advantage over Washington for the third WC position. There are three squads wedged in between them for that final postseason berth.
These contenders played three games in early June at Chase Field. Washington won two of those contests and outscored Arizona 21-7 in the series.
Missed the Top Five
Royals (43-61) at Tigers (49-54): Four games
Rockies (41-63) at Brewers (64-38): Three games
Atlanta (60-42) at Orioles (50-53): Three games
Dodgers (65-38) at Mets (43-60): Three games
Padres (50-53) at Marlins (52-51): Three games
Blue Jays (47-56) at Red Sox (52-49): Three games
Astros (50-54) at White Sox (54-47): Three games
A’s (43-59) at Twins (51-53): Three games
Reds (47-54) at Cardinals (52-50): Three games
Angels (41-62) at Giants (42-60): Three games
