When the Oakland Athletics selected Jacob Wilson at 6th overall in the 2023 class, many, myself included, questioned what they were doing. Wilson was a solid mid-major prospect out of Grand Canyon University with big-league bloodlines but showcased little to no power during his college career with a metal bat and in the power-friendly environment of college baseball. We can all agree my analysis of Wilson was wrong. Since that day he proceeded to hit .401 through 337 minor league plate appearances all the way to making his MLB debut. After the 2024 MLB Draft, many felt similarly about the A’s selection of Nick Kurtz. With names like Jac Caglianone, Hagen Smith, Christian Moore, and more left on the board, the A’s selected what many felt wasn’t even the best 1st baseman available, let alone the best player available. But so far, it looks like the A’s made another really good selection.
Nick Kurtz: A Modern Elite MLB Hitter
Coming into the 2024 season, many had Kurtz as one of the top hitters in the class. Through 2 years at Wake Forest, he showcased both the ability to hit for power and average, while showing an impressive combination of elite plate discipline and plus contact skills. During his Sophomore campaign, he hit .353 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts (50:63 K/BB). Many evaluators expected Kurtz to build on that campaign, establishing himself as one of the elite hitters in the class. Instead, Kurtz had put up an “underwhelming” .306 with 22 home runs, 78 walks, and 42 strikeouts. While Kurtz “struggled” other prospects like Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, and Caglianone established themselves at the top of the draft. The A’s still felt Kurtz was worth the 4th overall selection, and so far in pro ball it seems like the right selection. Let’s take a look at what the A’s saw, and why Kurtz has the potential to be special.
Track Record of Success
Keith Law wrote an amazing book in 2020 called The Inside Game, detailing many different scenarios and topics relating to decision-making in the game of baseball. Similar to Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, it is a really informative deep dive into how some of our biases and experiences can impact our decision-making. Both books are a must-read for baseball fans in general, but especially anyone who considers themselves a prospect junkie or player evaluator. There are many moments when reading where you will look back on some of your analysis and realize the obvious biases that impacted your decisions and made you much more likely to be wrong in your analysis.
What does all this have to do with Kurtz being drafted by the A’s? Chapter 7 in The Inside Game, is titled “Cold Water on Hot Streaks: Recency Bias and the Danger of Using Just the Latest Data to Predict the Future”. The A’s were obviously not scared off by a “down” 2024 season by Kurtz standards. They were able to look at the track record of success over the previous two years in college on top of the production that Kurtz showcased in 2024. The A’s did not simply focus on what they had seen most recently, they valued the overall picture of Kurtz. The same Kurtz who ended his career with a .333/.510/.725 triple slash line with 61 home runs and a Wake Forest-record 189 walks on a career. Being able to utilize recent information to make a better decision is important, but being able to see the whole picture is how you make the best decisions in player evaluation. The A’s looked at the big picture when selecting Kurtz.
MLB Ready Plate Discipline Skills
To be an elite MLB hitter, it helps to make good swing decisions. The ability to swing at, and make contact with, strikes, while not swinging at pitches out of the zone, is imperative to having success against the best MLB arms. When it comes to the ability to make swing decisions, Kurtz was in a class of his own in the 2024 draft. During the 2024 season, Kurtz chased at only 13.8% of pitches out of the zone. This is one of the many reasons why he is Wake Forest’s all-time walks leader, while only playing three seasons for the Demon Deacons. Kurtz is one of the most disciplined hitters in the country, and he spent much of 2024 being pitched around after losing the protection of Brock Wilken.
When it comes to plate discipline, Kurtz is a natural. In his career, he chased 13.3% of pitches out of the zone. As a true freshman, that number was even more impressive as he only chased at an 11.0% rate. Imagine being 18 years old, facing ACC competition, and not allowing the game to speed up to the point of swinging at pitches out of the zone. Impressive stuff. As Kurtz advances up the ranks of the MiLB, strike zones will continue to get smaller. This will make his strength even more of an asset for him. Very rarely do you see hitters who are better suited to succeed in professional baseball than in college, but the ability to control the strike zone sets Kurtz up to do just that.
Impressive Batted Ball Profile
When evaluating a hitter, there are three specific data points that are very important to me. Those three traits are the aforementioned chase rate, average exit velocity, and contact rate. These are always the first things I look at when trying to gain a perspective on a hitter.
We already discussed how Kurtz is one of the best decision-makers in all of baseball. That one is a given. But the contact rate and exit velocity data are what make me a true believer in Kurtz’s potential as an impact talent at the MLB level. This season he averaged a 94.4 mph average exit velocity. Combine that with 54.9% of those being above 95 mph, and it paints a picture of a potential impact power hitter at the MLB. Yes, that is with a metal bat but showcases a plus feel for the barrel. So far in 12 professional games, he has already hit four home runs with wood. The ability to make loud contact is an important box to check to have success as a hitter at the next level.
With that being said, impressive exit velocity numbers are useless without consistent contact. We have seen MLB hitters who can hit the ball hard, but struggle because of their lack of ability to make contact. This season, Kurtz had a 79.6% contact rate. The number I look for to see if a hitter has plus bat-to-ball skills is an 80% contact rate. Kurtz showcases an impressive feel for the barrel with plus abilities to impact the baseball, all while rarely ever swinging at pitches outside of the strikezone. That is a lethal combination for future production as a power hitter.
Combine all those traits with the knack for elevating the baseball, and Kurtz is the prototypical modern-day power hitter. This season Kurtz had a 41.4% flyball rate and an average launch angle of 21.5°. Being able to consistently hit the ball in the air, at an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph, makes good things happen.
Conclusion
Overall, Kurtz checks the boxes of what a lot of elite hitters do. He showcases the ability to dominate pitches in the strike zone, while not chasing at pitches out of it. Very rarely do you see hitters who are better suited to perform in professional baseball, than college, but there is a good chance Kurtz does just that. As strike zones get smaller, and umpires get better, it is even more important to have awareness of what pitches to swing at. Kurtz might already have the best plate discipline in all of MiLB. He is only 12 games into his professional career, but the results have been positive so far. Kurtz will have to continue to perform, but there is a lot pointing in the direction of Kurtz being a valuable big leaguer. The A’s made a great selection at fourth overall. Buy your stock now.
Photos courtesy of their respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)
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