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Overrated or Underrated Dynasty Prospects

At the halfway point, we review 3 overrated & 3 underrated prospects.

John Villavicencio
Dynasty 4 Hours Ago

Overrated & Underrated Dynasty Prospects

We’ve now reached the halfway point of both the Major League and Minor League seasons. Every level of professional baseball—from the Arizona Complex League to the Dominican Summer League and every affiliate in between—is producing fresh data, breakout performances, and promotion-worthy talent. Each week, more prospects move up the ladder as organizations begin shaping both their late-season plans and their long-term rosters. Just as importantly, some players aren’t getting promoted, creating valuation gaps between perception and reality. Those disconnects can become buying or selling opportunities for dynasty managers. With the season at its midpoint, now is an ideal time to take a hard look at your farm system, identify prospects whose value has peaked, and target others whose future performance may soon outpace their current reputation.

One of the best free tools for this exercise is the FanGraphs Minor League Power Rankings. I’ve found it invaluable for uncovering under-the-radar prospects—no small task when there are more than 7,000 players spread across professional baseball. Using those rankings as a reference point, here are six prospects whose current value appears either overrated or underrated relative to where they stand today.

All statistics and Minor League Power Rankings (rank includes hitters and pitchers) are sourced through July 6, 2026.

 

Overrated Prospects

Kade Anderson, SP, Seattle Mariners

6’2″, 22 years old, RHP

2026 AA: 72.2 IP| 41.4K% | 3.8 BB%| 0.69 WHIP| 1.36 ERA| 1.83 FIP

Season rank: 2. Last 21: 40. Last 14: 115. Last 7: 264.

 

The first prospect is overrated because there is no way they can fulfill all of the fantasy manager expectations being hoisted on them for the 2026 season. Yes, Kade Anderson has been absolutely dominant in Double-A. Yes, he has been atop the weekly Pitcher Stash List for the last month. Yes, the rest of the season Major League projections give him a top 5 FIP. These are all solid bricks to the foundation for an argument that he could be a meaningful contributor to your fantasy roster this season.

However, there are some warts that unaware fantasy managers may not be considering. The number one obstacle to his promotion is playing time. There is absolutely no obvious opening in the Seattle rotation, and there is no incentive for the organization to be aggressive with his timeline. It was kind of GM Jerry DiPoto to confirm that they tend to bypass Triple-A for their quality pitching prospects, but there is no rush at this time to move Anderson to the big league club. This brings us to con number one with Anderson: those glitzy rest of season projections only have him for 21 innings, at most! That is a big slap to the hype that the weekly stash list has been building for the case to roster Anderson at this point in the season. I hoped that he would move through the Minor Leagues as Chase Burns did in 2025. Burns displayed similar strikeout upside and control with a 36% strikeout rate and 3% walk rate in Double-A alone. Burns was eventually promoted to Cincinnati in late June, which gave him enough time to enter 13 games and amass 43 innings.

Burns also had a more potent arsenal with a 98 mph fastball. Anderson is sitting at 93 mph most games while popping the occasional 96 or 97 on the radar gun. His primary skill is locating and sequencing all of his secondaries. The average velocity may increase with more development, but the elite 70% strike rate is what you are paying for right now. Ok, you are also paying for the quality of those strikes with his swinging strike rate over 18% and called strike rate over 19%. Anderson has also minimized the long ball and most contact overall with a .162 batting average against. Yet, all of this dominance is happening against Double-A hitters. It would be great to see what happens when Anderson faces higher-level competition like he needs to. Yet, that sends us back to obstacle number one…

For 2026 fantasy success, it would be prudent to strongly consider moving off of Anderson because his value will never be higher before he throws his first of maybe a couple of hundred Major League pitches.

TLDR: Elite Double-A production and command make Kade Anderson an outstanding long-term arm, but a crowded Seattle rotation and limited projected MLB innings make this an ideal time to cash in on peak 2026 hype.

 

Franklin Arias, SS/2B, Boston Red Sox

5’11” 20 years old B/T: R/R

2026 AA: 299 PA| 17 HR 5 SB| 159 wRC+| .332| .418| .602

Season rank: 4. Last 21: 5. Last 14: 6. Last 7: 25.

 

I recently saw a social media post (couldn’t find the original post) asking whether the increase in home run distance throughout professional baseball could be contributing to the power surge we’re seeing from some Minor League prospects. While there’s no evidence that the baseball being used in the Minor Leagues (Triple-A uses the same baseball as Major League Baseball. Double-A and below use a different ball) has been affected by the same manufacturing concerns as the Major League ball, it’s still worth asking whether a few prospects are posting inflated power numbers. That brings us to our first “overrated” prospect: Franklin Arias.

There is no questioning Arias’ ability to hit. He entered pro ball with a 60-grade hit tool, and he has backed it up all season. Over the last week alone, he went 6-for-18 with three home runs, five walks, and just one strikeout. If there were ever a bad time to challenge someone’s power profile, this would be it. Even so, zooming out tells a more nuanced story. Arias exploded for eight home runs in April, but has hit only four home runs in each of the next two months. The improved walk rate provides a nice safety net, and while his strikeout rate ticked up to its highest point of the season in June…well, that rate was still under 14%. (Cherry-picking timelines can be a lot of fun.)

The bigger question is sustainability. Overall, Arias is swinging at fewer pitches than in previous seasons, yet he is hitting more home runs than ever before. That combination is difficult to maintain over a full season and is often the hallmark of a player riding an extended heater. His .600-plus slugging percentage is also roughly 200 points higher than anything he has produced at any previous stateside stop. Watching him hit, it isn’t difficult to see why evaluators have long loved the bat. Arias consistently stays behind pitches in the lower part of the strike zone, sprays line drives from gap to gap, and doesn’t look like someone selling out for pull-side power. Yes, I intentionally said gap-to-gap power.

 

The 60-grade hit tool and 60-grade defense provide Arias with an exceptionally high floor, but it’s the unexpected power breakout in 2026 that has pushed many evaluators to rank him as the top prospect in baseball. There is plenty to like beyond the home runs, too. His walk rate is now above 10%, and his 8% swinging-strike rate remains exceptionally low—two skills he has sustained over the last two seasons. Still, if you believe the current power output is more of a short-term spike than a permanent skill gain, this may be the ideal time to capitalize on the hype. Dynasty managers rarely get the chance to sell a prospect at absolute peak value, and Arias may be approaching exactly that point.

TLDR:  Arias’ elite hit tool is real, but his current power surge looks more like a career-best heater than a sustainable skill, making him a strong dynasty sell-high candidate.

 

Luis Lara, CF/RF, Milwaukee Brewers

5’7″ 21 years old B/T: S/R

2026 AAA: 346 PA| 9 HR 24 SB| 143 wRC+| .321| .432| .470

Season rank: 3. Last 21: 110. Last 14: 17. Last 7: 43.

 

The Brewers have spent the last several years locking up their young core in an effort to keep their championship window open as long as possible. Jackson Chourio. Cooper Pratt. Luis Lara. Record scratch…wait, Luis Lara? Yes, the switch-hitting outfielder signed a seven-year extension in early June after an outstanding first three months of the season. At the time of the deal, Lara owned a .950 OPS with five home runs, 27 RBI, and 18 stolen bases, while showing outstanding plate discipline with 38 walks against just 31 strikeouts. The extension also continues Milwaukee’s apparent affinity for undersized, athletic position players, joining names like Sal Frelick, William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, David Hamilton, and Joey Ortiz. While those players bring plenty of value, few are known for middle-of-the-order power. It’s also worth remembering that Lara entered the year as more of a sleeper than a consensus elite prospect, ranking No. 9 by FanGraphs and No. 15 by Prospects Live. Rankings are far from definitive, but they do provide context for expectations, making Lara’s rapid rise all the more noteworthy.

On the field, Lara still projects as a speed-first center fielder with above-average defense. At the plate, however, he has already doubled his previous career home run total, fueling a breakout season. The question is whether that power is sustainable. Even if he were to hit the same number of home runs over the remainder of the season, he would finish with roughly a 15-home run pace, which feels much closer to his realistic ceiling than the current trajectory suggests. He’s producing that power despite a sub-30% fly-ball rate and sub-40% pull rate, two indicators that typically do not support a major power breakout. More telling, his current home run-to-fly ball rate is roughly six times higher than it had been over the previous few seasons, suggesting a significant amount of favorable variance.

Where Lara deserves universal praise is with his plate discipline and athleticism. He has consistently controlled the strike zone throughout his career, and this season, he still owns more walks than strikeouts. That profile is supported by an elite approach, featuring a superbly low swinging-strike rate, low chase rate, 94% zone-contact rate, and 87% overall contact rate. Those are outstanding skills that should translate at higher levels. The concern is the quality of contact. Despite all the contact he makes, Lara owns just a 3% barrel rate, a figure that doesn’t support his current power production and suggests the home run totals are likely inflated.

Taken together, Lara still looks like an excellent prospect—but one whose value is driven more by speed, on-base ability, and defense than by over-the-fence power. The switch-hitting profile and defensive versatility should keep him in the lineup almost every day, giving him plenty of opportunities to impact fantasy leagues with stolen bases. A line similar to June, when he hit .278 and stole 10 bases, is easy to envision. The catch? He didn’t hit a single home run that month. That version of Lara—a high-contact, speed-first table setter—remains the more believable long-term projection than the recent power surge.

Update: Lara hit second in his Major League debut, where he put four balls into play and drew a walk. One of those balls in play, hit for a 98 mph exit velocity, resulted in a two-run single with the bases loaded. The contact skills are already showing up.

TLDR: Lara’s speed, defense, and plate discipline should translate, but his current home run production is outpacing the underlying contact quality and likely overstates his long-term power ceiling.

 

Underrated Prospects

Eric Hartman, CF/LF, Atlanta Braves

6’1″, 20 years old, B/T: L/R

2026 A+: 334 PA| 20 HR 31 SB| 138 wRC+| .290| .365| .556

Season rank: 15. Last 21: 578. Last 14: 480. Last 7: 882.

 

What a snub. MLB’s Futures Game roster somehow omitted one of the best breakout stories in the Minor Leagues. Eric Hartman was selected in the 20th round of the 2024 draft because of his speed, but has rapidly evolved into a more complete offensive player by adding legitimate over-the-fence power to his game.

Coming out of the draft, Hartman’s raw power was graded as well below average, though scouts did note his pull-heavy approach. That trait is proving to be important. Unlike Arias and Lara, Hartman consistently gets the ball in the air to his pull side, making his power surge feel more sustainable than a simple hot streak. Yes, his 20% HR/FB rate is almost certainly headed for regression. However, he is also producing a higher fly-ball rate than the other two hitters, giving him a stronger foundation for continued home run production.

Hartman’s offensive profile has also become more aggressive. He is now swinging at more than 53% of pitches, hunting damage earlier in counts. Normally, that type of approach comes with a spike in strikeouts, but Hartman has largely avoided that pitfall. While his swinging-strike rate is a bit higher than ideal, the increased aggression has primarily translated into fewer walks rather than a bloated strikeout rate. For a player with his combination of speed and emerging power, that’s a perfectly acceptable tradeoff if it means putting more quality contact into play.

If you would like a visual analysis, please see below:

When Hartman does connect, the quality of contact has taken a meaningful step forward. Reports indicate his exit velocities have improved noticeably compared to previous seasons, providing another piece of evidence that the newfound power is backed by real skill growth rather than luck.

As a left-handed hitter, there were reasonable concerns that he might become a platoon player against left-handed pitching. Instead, he has answered those questions with a .500 slugging percentage, four home runs, and a 25% strikeout rate against southpaws, albeit in a smaller sample. His ability to remain productive in those matchups significantly raises his long-term offensive ceiling.

Perhaps the strongest argument in Hartman’s favor is the breakout’s consistency. Rather than riding one explosive month, he has maintained strong underlying rates throughout the season. That makes this look less like a fluky stretch and more like a player who has fundamentally changed his offensive profile.

The current numbers likely represent the high end of his offensive ceiling, just as they do for Arias and Lara. Even so, a player capable of producing 20 home runs while stealing 40-plus bases suddenly feels far more realistic than it did when Hartman first entered professional baseball.

TLDR: Hartman’s improved swing, rising exit velocities, and fly-ball approach make his emerging 20-homer/40-steal upside far more believable than his modest prospect ranking suggests.

 

Christian Zazueta, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

6’3″, 21 years old, RHP

2026 AA: 57.2 IP| 36.6K% | 5.8 BB%| 0.92 WHIP| 3.43 ERA| 3.36 FIP

Season rank: 186. Last 21: 30. Last 14: 51. Last 7: 336.

 

After highlighting the remarkable success of Kade Anderson, it’s fair to ask: who qualifies as a truly underrated pitching prospect? The answer is Christian Zazueta, a 6’3″ right-hander in the Dodgers system who quietly checks nearly every box evaluators look for. Like Anderson, Zazueta pounds the strike zone and misses bats, but he adds something Anderson currently lacks—sustained premium velocity. Recently promoted to Double-A Tulsa, Zazueta’s 3.52 ERA doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but the underlying indicators are outstanding: a 36% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 16% swinging-strike rate, and 67% strike rate. Those are the markers of a pitcher with both overpowering stuff and the command to maximize it. More importantly, they suggest his skill set is built to translate as he climbs the ladder.

Zazueta attacks hitters with a lively 96 mph four-seamer that frequently reaches 98 mph. While there’s still room to gain a bit more extension, his athletic, repeatable delivery creates excellent momentum toward the plate, giving the fastball plenty of life. At times, the pitch shows so much arm-side movement that it almost resembles a sinker. His changeup is an equally dangerous weapon, featuring a massive horizontal fade that consistently disrupts timing. The slider remains more of an average offering, but it doesn’t need to carry the arsenal when the fastball-changeup combination is this dominant. After a rough May, Zazueta has looked like a different pitcher since arriving in Double-A, piling up 16 strikeouts against just one walk while producing a 21% swinging-strike rate over his first two starts. In a Dodgers system overflowing with high-end arms, Zazueta is quietly forcing his way into the conversation as one of the organization’s most underrated pitching prospects.

TLDR: Zazueta combines premium velocity, plus strike-throwing, and bat-missing ability into one of the most overlooked pitching profiles in the Dodgers’ loaded farm system.

Nolan Perry, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

6’2″, 22 years old, RHP

2026 AA, A+, A: 54.2 IP| 39.4K% | 8.8 BB%| 1.01 WHIP| 2.47 ERA| 2.72 FIP

Season rank: 157. Last 21: 2187. Last 14: 731. Last 7: 281.

 

I love pitchers that throw hard. A hard thrower doesn’t necessarily have to be any more violent with their delivery than throwing a baseball already is. The motion just has to be powerful, with maybe a quicker arm action or strong rotation of the torso. Nolan Perry utilizes a delivery somewhere in between with a cadence somewhat like a crescendo of slow-slow-slow-fast. It’s a gradual buildup through the windup before an explosion of the ball out of his hand. The four-seamer is sitting at 94 mph now, but could easily gain a few ticks. He supports the fastball with a standout slider and a big drop curveball. In Single-A, the curve was falling 57 inches on average with ten inches of horizontal movement.

Perry has now fast-forwarded through three levels this season and was recently promoted to Double-A. This hastened schedule is partially because he missed all of 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be considered old for those lower levels. Nevertheless, Perry is averaging a 39% strikeout rate and 15% swinging strike rate overall in 2026, but his Double-A numbers have started much stronger.

The 22-year-old righty has quickly established a lofty baseline with his early success. Expectations should still be tempered, however, as his first season back from injury is likely to come with an innings limit. That makes him an intriguing dynasty target, as managers focused on immediate production may overlook the long-term upside.

TLDR: Perry’s power arsenal and rapid climb through three levels point to a breakout dynasty arm, with his impending innings cap creating a rare buying opportunity before his value catches up.

 

Also considered for being underrated:

Devin Taylor, OF, ATH is a big-time power bat who can take a walk and chip in a few steals. Expect his home run total to surge as the mediocre flyball rate normalizes to a much higher level.

Eli Willits, SS, WSN looks like a real game changer with speed and a swing that supports his current power surge. Willits could easily zoom to the top of the class alongside Leo De Vries and Jesús Made.

Dylan Jordan, SP, LAA has the solid foundation of a strong fastball and disgustingly filthy changeup to eviscerate opposing lineups with a huge amount of swing and miss.

 

Also considered for being overrated:

Braylon Doughty, SP, CLE has an appealing deep arsenal, but not a huge strikeout upside to match.

Andrew Fischer, 3B, MIL has a video game swing that is showing video game power, but doing so at an unsustainable pace, with poor strikeout rates.

Anthony Eyanson, SP, BOS has seen his control back up as Double-A hitters do more damage on his pitches.

 

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