Welcome back to Week 19 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. We’re in the thick of it now and can have more confidence in the underlying numbers.
Daulton Varsho, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
In an injury-shortened season in 2025, Varsho put up the best offensive numbers of his career. In 271 PA, he had a .238/.284/.548 slash, 28.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, and 123 wRC+. An astounding .310 ISO was the primary driver of his success, this coming from a guy who had a career .189 ISO going into 2025. This year he has largely reverted back to who he was before 2025.
In 362 PA, he has a .245/.309/.379 slash, 19.1% K%, 8.0% BB%, and 93 wRC+. His ISO has flipped and is way down to .133. In most areas, he has actually improved somewhat. It’s the power outage that needs to be examined.
For starters, in 2025 he had an excellent 15.9% Barrel%. His 6.5% Barrel% this year is much more in line with the rest of his career. In 2025, his Bat Speed also spiked all the way to 75.6 mph, and his Fast-Swing Rate was up to 56.2%. This year, his Bat Speed is back down to 72.9 mph, and his Fast-Swing Rate is way down to 28.3%.
Was he simply swinging closer to max effort more frequently last year? It’s certainly possible. His Z-Contact%, O-Contact%, and overall Contact% dropped to either career lows or the lowest since his rookie season. This year his Contact% has increased 10.8% to a career high of 82.5%.
Verdict: Confused Panic. Varsho’s 2025 power numbers were certainly inflated by luck. A 21.3% HR/FB% was unsustainable, and few can continually produce a .310 ISO, but Varsho was hitting the ball much harder. He had a career-high 93.9 mph FB EV. His contact numbers took a hit, but his AVG and OBP were only down slightly. His injuries were likely unrelated to his increased Bat Speed. It’s certainly possible that his injuries last year have prevented him from carrying over that increased Bat Speed, but it seems like he was uncomfortable with his increased K% and has focused on making more contact, to the detriment of his overall production.
Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros
Many had high hopes for Smith once he was traded to the Astros before the 2025 season. FanGraphs rated him as the Astros’ best prospect and 47th overall, with a 50 Future Value. His rookie season was disappointing, but not disastrous. In 493 PA, he had a 90 wRC+.
Many expected bigger things from him in 2026. In 411 PA so far, he has a .213/.285/.371 slash, 24.3% K%, 8.0% BB%, and 84 wRC+. Why the lack of improvement?
In many ways, he has actually improved incrementally. His K%, ISO, HR, and SB have all taken a step forward. His Barrel% is up nearly 4 points to 10.8%.
Last year he had a BABIP of .320, and this year it is way down to .252. Is luck the primary explanation for his struggles?
Last year his xBABIP was .319, and this year it is .270, so he is only underperforming it slightly. However, according to another Pitcher List stat, Hit Luck, he has 20 fewer hits than predicted by PLV.
Verdict: Patience. I don’t recall looking at a player’s metrics and seeing such consistency across nearly every metric over two seasons. He has improved slightly in many important stats and should be seeing slightly better results. He has just been somewhat unlucky. He should be a good overall player throughout his career.
Source: Baseball Savant
Source: Baseball Savant
Jake Burger, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers
Burger has long been known as a power hitter with little else, even if that reputation is not entirely accurate. He strikes out less than one might expect. He’s had a decent season overall. In fact, on June 26, he had a 115 wRC+. The problems have been since then.
In 118 PA over that period, he has a .191/.246/.345 slash, 29.7% K%, 5.9% BB%, and 65 wRC+. His .229 BABIP is due to a 48.0% FB% and a minuscule 9.3% LD%. Burger’s career 16.5% LD% isn’t great, but he won’t continue to hit as few as he has been over this rough stretch. His Hard% has remained strong.
However, he has struggled to make contact over that stretch. He has had contact issues through his career, but this is the worst it’s been in recent years.
Verdict: Cautiously Patient. Free, hard swingers like Burger are known for being streaky, and I suspect he will get hot again shortly. Players with this profile can decline rapidly earlier than expected, but I don’t think that’s the case yet for Burger. I expect him to frequently hit the ball hard going forward.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
