Reap What You Crow
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 4-4, 2B, 3B, HR, R, 2 RBI.
PCA’s home run came on Michael Lorenzen’s fourth pitch of the night, a 434-foot soaring drive to right-center. In the third, he drilled another fastball from Lorenzen to deep right-center; it didn’t carry over the fence, but it bounced off the Hefty patch in the ivy, allowing him to race to third. His double came two innings later, when he smoked a sinker into the right field corner. Yep, that was Lorenzen’s doing, too. Leading off the seventh, he lined a sinker from lefty Brennan Bernardino over the second baseman Edouard Julien and into right; the single completed baseball’s first cycle of the year and the 13th in Cubs history.
And, then, a few moments later, with the score 2-1 Cubs, Bernardino caught the star centerfielder leaning a little too far off the bag. Womp womp. That’s the PCA experience; there’s never a dull moment. He added a sac fly in the eighth that helped salvage a 5-4 win over the Rockies. The historic night pushed the 24-year-old’s slash to .277/ .351/ .493. I’m drawn to his .351 OBP; that’s 64 points better than last year. Yes, PCA is walking a little more this year (7.9% vs. 4.5%). And I’m happy to report that, while his swing decisions are below average according to PLV, they have improved (67 DV vs. 79 DV). That’s progress!
But wait, there’s more. Despite a small increase in his K rate, he has actually improved his contact from 95 to 101. And, in case you were wondering, his 118 Power matches last year’s mark. And the results lately have been sublime; his 1.080 OPS over the past 30 days (27 games) is eighth-best in baseball. Dare I say, a fun summer awaits in Chicago.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:
Dylan Crews (WSN): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
With two down and two on in the fifth, Crews tucked a 3-2 slider from Mason Black just inside the left field foul pole (365 feet, 108.4 EV) for his third home run. The 24-year-old former second overall pick has slashed .190/ .236/ .321 across 89 PAs since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester on May 19th. It’s far too early to determine anything definitive, but his 36.7% chase rate suggests that his swing decisions might be part of the problem. At the very least, he is riding a modest five-game hitting streak while occupying a regular spot in the middle of a very productive Nats lineup. He still has plenty of upside.
Brandon Marsh (PHI): 2-5, 2B, R.
Marsh has given the Phillies some much-needed punch behind Schwarber and Harper, by hitting .325 with an .852 OPS, both career highs. His swing decisions are a little dicey (87 DV), and his over-the-fence power is modest (94 HR Power). However, he is adding a ton of value with his extra-base hits down the line and into the gaps (144 Gap Power).
Colt Keith (DET): 3-4, 3 HR, 3 R, 6 RBI.
There it is! With two down in the third, Teng tossed a sweeper that dissected the plate before being redirected by Keith’s barrel and landing in Houston’s bullpen (411 feet, 108.8 EV). His second longball came against a changeup from righty reliever Jayden Murray. As Nate Schwartz noted, there was a point earlier this year when it seemed Keith was on the verge of putting it all together; he added some bat speed while also sharpening his chase rate. However, according to PLV, his power this season has plummeted from 116 to 96. ..But maybe this gets him going? Hey, stranger things have happened. And sure enough, he just went oppo on a belt-high slider from Bryan Abreu. And just like that, he has more home runs than Vladdy. At 24, he’s the youngest Tiger to go yard three times in a game since Mr. Tiger himself, Al Kaline.
Cole Carrigg (COL): 1-3, HR, R, 4 RBI, BB.
The Cubs thought they could eke out an easy win against the Rockies in Wrigley, didn’t they? Well, not so fast! With two down in the eighth, Carrigg sent a high heater from lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar soaring into the left field seats; the three-run blast gave the Rockies a 4-3 lead that they would eventually blow. Drats. That’s three taters for Carrigg since his debut on June 9th. I’ll admit, I’ve conditioned my brain to ignore the purple and black, but the 24-year-old switch-hitter has me thinking otherwise. Sure, you have to take his .338/ .414/ .529 slash with Triple-A Albuquerque with a serious grain of salt. But he also stole 30 bases in 57 games.
Eugenio Suárez (CIN): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI.
A former fantasy stalwart, Suárez limped into last night’s game against the Mets, hitting .215 with a career-low 72 wRC+. He gave the Reds a 3-0 lead in the first by parking a four-seamer from righty Tobias Myers a couple of rows past the left-center field wall (375 feet, 98.4 EV). An inning later, he sent a payoff pitch from righty Jonathan Pintaro into the Reds bullpen for a grand slam (405 feet, 105.9 EV). I think it’s safe to say he’s better than his current .682 OPS, because, you know, he hit 49 dingers last year. Still, his Power has dipped a bit this season from 122 to 106; that’s not terrible by any means, but it’s enough to make me feel like we are watching a slugger that’s on the back end of his career. Sometimes, the cliff comes hard and fast.
Bo Bichette (NYM): 3-5, 2 2B.
On the other side of the 12-0 blowout, Bichette got half of the Mets’ hits. Slowly but surely, he has put the frigid start in the rearview mirror; he’s hitting .303 with a .874 OPS over the last 30 days. Poor swing decisions have made Bichette vulnerable to cold spells (75 DV). Nonetheless, his combination of bat-to-ball ability (113 Contact) and power (109) makes him a pretty decent buy-low, provided the window hasn’t already shut.
Kyle Tucker (LAD): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Tucker declined a bit in the second half last season, hitting .231 with a 115 wRC+. But most fantasy managers were willing to look the other way for two reasons: one, he had a hairline fracture in his hand, and two, well, you know, the Dodgers. Regardless, Tucker limped into last night’s game, hitting .235 with a 102 wRC+, both career lows. Last night’s home run came courtesy of a 3-2 changeup from Nick Martinez that just barely had enough hang time to fly over the fence (383 feet, 102.1 EV). Tucker’s swing decisions are elite (122 DV), but right now, he looks like someone who might struggle to push past 20 home runs (94 Power). It’s weird seeing him hit sixth against a righty, too, isn’t it?
Nick Kurtz (ATH): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, BB.
Both went against the traffic. Kurtz started a little slowly, but his 1.006 OPS trails only Yordan’s 1.087. His .293 average is just about what we saw last year. And he also leads baseball with 67 walks. I think pitchers are afraid. Ya think?
Endy Rodríguez (PIT): 3-3, HR, R, RBI, BB.
The 26-year-old lefty-hitting catcher went yard to left-center in the eighth, long after the game was wrapped. He also took Sandy deep on Friday. He and Henry Davis are in a timeshare behind the plate. However, those in two-catcher leagues might want to keep an eye on him, given that he has been far more productive than Davis, slashing .268/ .423/ .482 over 72 PAs. He was a pretty big prospect who lost about two years with UCL surgery.
Lars Nootbaar (STL): 2-3, R, BB.
Nootbaar has played in all but two games since returning from the IL (recovery from heel surgery) in June 5th. He’s made his presence felt, slashing .257/ .366/ .486. Yes, the sample size is small, but those in five OF leagues should jump on him now, especially those that value walks.
Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on Bluesky)
