As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
Last year’s Arizona Fall League Player of the Year, Valdez comes with some prospect pedigree. Even if he’s not in the MLB top 100, he’s been climbing the ranks with Baseball America and other ratings agencies.
This is actually Valdez’s second stint in the Show, as he was called up for a five-game cup of coffee in May. While he homered twice in that foray, he also hit .125 and struck out in half of his plate appearances.
Back in the Minors, Valdez worked on his patience as a hitter, and lowered his K-rate in AAA to just 21.5%, which is excellent for someone with his power. He was also getting on base 39% of the time with a solid Walk rate, and that earned him a second chance with the big club.
It’s a chance he has not squandered. Since June 11, Valdez is hitting .406 with a .906 SLG and 1.378 OPS, with eight XBH’s in just 32 at-bats. He homered in four straight games (only two other rookies in Pirates history have ever done that) and has three straight multi-hit games (including a pair of knocks against Christopher Sanchez last night). He’s also got an absolutely absurd 34.5% Barrel rate.
Valdez is still striking out a lot, around 30% this month, which is often a kiss of death in points leagues. But his Chase rate is just 22.5% and he had a much better Whiff rate in the Minors, so this should continue to improve as he gets more appearances. And to top things off—after appearing in the bottom half of the order in every game, Valdez batted second last night. The Pirates are taking notice of Valdez’s bat and you should, too.
After a standout college career at Florida State, Smith vaulted to the Majors last season after just a handful of games in AA and was thought to be Houston’s Next Big Thing. That didn’t quite work out, however, as Smith finished the season with just nine home runs and eight steals in nearly 500 plate appearances. But getting a full season of MLB playing time appears to have set him up for improvement, as he just passed both 2025’s home run and steals totals halfway through the season.
Alas, Smith probably skews a little better in categories leagues with his newfound 20/20 potential (and his .299 OBP doesn’t necessarily scream points league must-own). But he’s becoming relevant in all formats with a nearly 9% walk rate and ten extra-base hits in June. His K-rate has been consistently coming down month-to-month, and his batting average is starting to creep up thanks to a steady improvement in his contact metrics. Given his refined approach, Smith could be an impact bat both for the Astros in the second half and for your fantasy team as well, points format or any other.
Gonzalez was called up thanks to an injury to Munetaka Murakami, but there’s more to him than a short-term injury plug-in. A former first-rounder due to a remarkable college career at Ole Miss (which included a CWS championship), Gonzalez scuffled in the Minors for a couple of years before making some adjustments in the offseason, where he and his hitting coaches specifically decided to emulate Matt Carpenter’s swing mechanics.
Those adjustments have been profound. In AAA this season, Gonzalez had already swatted 18 homers (his previous career high for a season was nine), with a .308 average and a .646 SLG. He was also walking 14% of the time with seven steals.
So far in the Majors, some of these numbers have translated, and some have not (or at least, not yet). While the 24-year-old has a pair of homers, his Barrel rate is currently just at 2% and his EVs average out to a just-ok 89%. His MLB Walk rate sits at 8%, but he’s making excellent contact with a 21% Whiff rate. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest, but the important takeaway is Gonzalez is playing well enough to stay with the club after Murakami gets back in a couple of weeks. He’ll likely shift to first base and can hopefully keep getting regular AB’s so he can build on his skills and develop into an MLB slugger.
Speaking of MLB sluggers, that’s exactly what O’Hearn has become. Often a platoon bat with the Orioles, he’s now getting everyday playing time in Pittsburgh (yesterday being an exception, but he did pinch-hit). The repetitions are paying off, as O’Hearn is already up to 13 homers, where he had just 17 all last season.
O’Hearn also hits for a high batting average and is getting on base 35% of the time. And he’s been consistent, with a .792 OPS in April, a .795 mark in May, and he just finished June at .773. He’s usually hitting fourth or fifth in the Pirates lineup (an offense which has greatly improved over last year) and could be in for a 100-RBI season after driving in ten runs this past week alone.
Given this consistency, O’Hearn shouldn’t really be considered a riser per se, but he’s finally getting the attention he’s due and is thus climbing the rankings. He’s probably not on your waiver wire, but if you were fortunate enough to get him, hold on.
Another player who’s gotten his shot due to injuries, Seigler’s had a long and winding road to the Major Leagues. A first-round selection by the Yankees in 2018, he’s battled through a fractured kneecap and lingering hamstring issues, and was sent to Milwaukee and then Boston in the trade for Kyle Harrison.
But then Seigler started raking, first in AAA with a .344 average and .999 OPS in May, and now in Boston where he’s hitting .350 in his first 40 at-bats and getting on base 41% of the time. Perhaps most impressively in the Minors, Seigler had an exact 1:1 K:BB ratio, which has been his calling card throughout his career. Because of this, the Red Sox are giving him opportunities at the top of the lineup, as he’s led off in multiple games (including last night). Given that Trevor Story is still recovering from surgery and Roman Anthony is still having trouble swinging a bat, Seigler should have some runway to further prove himself.
Fallers
Nimmo is usually an exceptional points-league player and an underrated asset for your team, but he’s been struggling lately (and that was before he got injured). Batting 2-for-18 last week with a .167 SLG, things went from bad to worse when Nimmo sprained an AC joint in his shoulder colliding with the outfield wall.
While manager Skip Schumaker is optimistic that Nimmo will avoid an IL stint based on his latest MRI, AC joints are typically not quick to heal. So it’s a bit of a double-edged sword here: if he does play through the pain, you can expect a couple weeks where he’s likely less productive. And if he goes on the IL, that’s a roster spot you need to fill (though there are a bunch of replacement options to choose from above!).
Shumaker mentioned that Nimmo could have been available off the bench yesterday, so he could be back in the lineup as soon as Wednesday. But if he goes down for a spell (which is probably the better outcome for fantasy owners, assuming they have IL room), you’ll need to find a short-term outfielder to put in his place.
Roupp looked like one of the year’s best fantasy draft picks after coming out of the gates with a 5-1 record and a 1.06 WHIP through April, but it’s been a different story since. While he’s had a couple of good starts here and there, he’s getting blown up in others, including last night’s 2.2 IP effort where he walked six batters and gave up six runs. The walks have officially become a problem, as he issued 18 free passes on the month compared to 22 in the rest of the season.
Roupp still has great stuff and many of his contact metrics are borderline-elite: he’s only getting barreled 4% of the time, hitters have an 86.6 mph Average Exit Velo against him, and his Ground Ball rate is nearly 50%. But he’s not a hard thrower, and if he’s not commanding his sinker/cutter combo, hitters can just be patient and tee off the 93-mph fastball in advantageous counts.
Given the contact metrics, Roupp might be a buy-low candidate even though he’s lost his last seven decisions in a row and it’s clear he’s not the same pitcher that was so impressive in the first month of the season. But if someone in your league has dropped him, watch him closely: if he figures out his control issues and regains his command, he could really help you down the stretch.
| Metric | March/April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5-1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| ERA | 2.55 | 4.38 | 7,14 |
| WHIP | 0.91 | 1.58 | 1.76 |
| K/9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 |
