As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
The first of a handful of rookie favorites this week, Clark’s game matches the points league format perfectly and he’s leveling up at the right time. He’s hitting .370 in September with an even more impressive .473 OBP that just screams put me at the top of the lineup. For now, he’s hitting sixth, but there’s some chatter in Detroit that he could get a crack at the leadoff spot by season’s end.
Clark had been underwhelming after his first month in the Majors, but many of his underlying metrics were improving before this hot streak began. First, his Whiff rate against fastballs nearly dropped in half from 11.3% in his first month of the season to 6.4%. He now has an impressive 93.4% in-zone contact rate across all pitches, and has cut his Chase rate down recently as well (though at 29% it’s still higher than his Minor League rate, so there could be more improvement here).
One concern is that in his first couple of months with over 150 plate appearances, Clark has just one barrel. But the former 3rd overall pick is still just 21, and the power should develop with time. He’s making great contact with a Sweet Spot rate that’s climbed to 35.7%, and he’s getting on base at an elite clip—that’s all you need to win in points.
This results in a Pull Air rate that’s among the lowest in the Majors. The good news is this is one of those fixable issues, so Mitchell could be a 30-homer guy before long.
But for those of us trying to win our league this year, Mitchell’s 29 doubles and 4 triples count for something in the points format. And he’s closing out the season strong, hitting .361 with six XBH’s and a 1.092 OPS in September.
Mitchell’s been devalued in points leagues historically, mainly due to his 30% K-rate. But he takes a ton of walks with a 36% OBP, and while the strikeouts haven’t really dropped during his hot streak (he’s got a second-percentile Whiff rate), his xwOBAcon is also in the top 3%. He works better in points than you’d think.
Bazzana’s been a favorite of this column since he got called up at the end of April, but he struggled through much of the summer with an OPS under .600 (kind of like Max Clark). A former #1 overall pick, though, it was only a matter of time before Bazzana’s talent started bubbling to the surface, and now he’s having a September to remember. He capped his breakout month with a two-homer night yesterday, is hitting over .400 during his last ten games, and his power numbers have exploded with five of his thirteen dingers this month.
Bazzana was platooning for a while given his .266 SLG against lefties, but he’s showing out enough that he might be an everyday player the rest of the way. And for points leaguers, that plummeting K-rate tells you all you need to know. I love Bazzana the rest of the way and he’s a top sleeper for me next season.
Through seven starts in the Majors, Mathews is showing improvement, cutting down on hits against by nearly 40%. This has translated into an ERA that’s nearly three runs lower and allowed him to go almost six innings in his last three outings.
So while you may look at the chart below and think his K’s are down, he’s actually striking out the same percentage of batters overall—he’s just improved from a 1.58 WHIP to a 1.19, so he’s facing fewer hitters per inning. And Mathews boasted a 35% K-rate in the Minors, and while that hasn’t translated over to the Majors yet, he should settle into striking out at least a batter per frame. And with improvements to his other metrics, he should be doing so with efficiency. He’s got a pair of starts
