SP Future Schedules – Week 17

Justin Wick breaks down the good and bad starter schedules ahead

Great Schedules


Max Fried (ATL)   7/23 @ PHI   7/28 @ NYM   8/3 @ STL

Atlanta’s left-hander Max Fried opened up the second half with seven shutout innings against the Rays. This all came after allowing nine earned runs in his final 10 innings leading up to the All-Star Break. Fried’s road ahead with the Phillies, Mets, and Cardinals features lower wRC+ than what he saw with Tampa Bay. Fried has pitched 23 innings thus year against his next three opponents, allowing four earned runs in that time.


Patrick Corbin (WAS)   7/23 @ BAL   7/28 @ PHI   8/2 vs. PHI

Baltimore and Philadelphia rank a respective 19th and 17th in wRC+, and Patrick Corbin has finally made his way off the bad schedule list. He’s made three starts this month, taking on the Padres twice and the Dodgers once. Corbin threw 16 innings in those starts and allowed 13 earned runs.


Lucas Giolito (CHW)   7/23 @ MIL   7/28 @ KC   8/3 vs. KC

Lucas Giolito will get another dose of back-to-back Royals after doing the same in early May. He allowed one run over five innings in his first outing, while the Royals tabbed him for five in the following start (6 IP). Kansas City’s wRC+ ranks 23rd and Giolito is coming off a one-run complete game against Houston, the league’s best wRC+.


Casey Mize (DET)   7/24 @ KC   7/29 vs. BAL   ***8/3 vs. BOS***   8/8 @ CLE

Detroit will take on those Royals this weekend and Casey Mize will go to work against the 19th-ranked wRC+ since the All-Star Break. He will follow it up with the 26th, 7th, and 24th figures in that same timeframe, as Boston will be the minor blip in an otherwise strong schedule.


Jake Odorizzi (HOU)   7/23 vs. TEX   7/28 @ SEA   ***8/3 @ LAD***   8/8 vs. MIN

*Avoids SF 7/30-8/1

Minnesota’s ninth-ranked wRC+ is suddenly less meaningful without Nelson Cruz in the lineup. Jake Odorizzi will have to face the Dodgers to open up August, but he will take on the 29th and 21st-ranked wRC+ leading into it.


Ryan Weathers (SD)   7/24 @ MIA   7/29 vs. COL   ***8/3 @ OAK***   8/8 vs. ARI

*Avoids OAK 7/27-28

San Diego will again call upon Ryan Weathers for his first big league appearance in 13 days. He’s thrown a combined 11 1/3 innings in June and last pitched on the 11th, where he held the Rockies scoreless for two innings. His placement in the rotation is a desirable one, although he doesn’t quite avoid both series with Oakland.


Trevor Williams (CHC)   7/25 vs. ARI   ***7/30 @ WAS***   8/4 @ COL   8/9 vs. MIL

*Avoids CHW 8/6-8

The Cubs will eye the White Sox and the second-best wRC+ in the league soon, but Trevor Williams is in line to dance around it. Three of Williams’ next four starts come against teams with bottom-third wRC+, and it could help him break a tough streak of recent outings. He allowed four earned runs to the Cardinals in his last start (5 IP), and three to the Phillies before that (3 2/3 IP).


Josiah Gray (LAD)   7/25 vs. COL   7/30 @ ARI   ***8/4 vs. HOU***   8/10 @ PHI

The Dodgers continue to navigate the tight-knit NL West without starters Dustin May and Trevor Bauer. 23-year-old Josiah Gray will anticipate his second career big league start on Sunday against the Rockies and is set to follow it up with the only divisional rival with a worse record than Colorado. Gray allowed four runs to the Giants in his four-inning debut on Wednesday. (Fun fact: Sunday’s Dodger/Rockies projected matchup will feature two J. Grays on the mound, as Jon is slated for Colorado.)


Alex Cobb (LAA)   7/23 @ MIN   7/28 vs. COL   8/2 @ TEX

*Avoids OAK 7/29-8/1

The new-look Twins will be without Nelson Cruz as Alex Cobb and the Angels go to work against them tonight. Cobb’s next two opponents rank in the bottom third in xFIP, but the Twins have ranked ninth over the entire season and since the All-Star Break.


Bad Schedules


Garrett Richards (BOS)   7/27 vs. TOR   8/1 @ TB   8/6 @ TOR   8/11 vs. TB

While Alex Cobb gets the Cruz-less Twins, Garrett Richards will get the Cruz-laden Rays twice in his next four starts. Toronto holds the third-best wRC+ in baseball and the best in the AL East, and Richards just faced him in his last outing. The right-hander allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, and his next start with the Blue Jays will be his fifth against them this year.


Gerrit Cole (NYY)   7/23 @ BOS   7/28 @ TB   ***8/2 vs. BAL***

Gerrit Cole will end his divisional-heavy run with the easiest opponent, at least. Baltimore’s wRC+ in the second half is a mere 79, but Boston and Tampa Bay have above-average figures in that time and their full-season figures are equally commendable.


Yusei Kikuchi (SEA)   7/23 vs. OAK   7/28 vs. HOU   8/2 @ TB   8/7 @ NYY

Three of the best five records in the American League are on Yusei Kikuchi’s road ahead. The Yankees are the outlier, but they just swept the Phillies and took two of three from the Red Sox.  Kikuchi had a rough go in his last start, allowing seven runs in five innings to the Angels.


Michael Pineda (MIN)   7/26 vs. DET   ***7/31 @ STL***   8/5 @ HOU   8/10 vs. CHW

Detroit’s offensive surge in the second half will soon meet Michael Pineda along with the two best wRC+ figures in the league in the Astros and White Sox. Pineda tamed the White Sox in his last start (5 IP, 1 ER), but also allowed five runs in his start prior—also against the Southsiders (5 1/3 IP).


Logan Webb (SF)   7/27 vs. LAD   8/1 vs. HOU

*Avoids ARI 8/2-5

Logan Webb gets the grand 2017 World Series tour in his next two starts while the Giants fight to stay atop the NL West. Webb allowed two earned runs to the Dodgers in his last start (5 IP), and will get them in his home ballpark on Tuesday.


Chi Chi González (COL)   7/23 @ LAD   7/28 @ LAA

The Rockies may soon put Chi Chi González in the bullpen with a fully-recovered rotation, but he will see some tough hitting teams on the road if he’s to make his next presumed starts. With the fourth and sixth-best wRC+ figures coming up, at least González can face them at sea level.


Kyle Freeland (COL)   7/24 @ LAD   7/29 @ SD

Kyle Freeland will also make some tough starts to close out July, but he’s also allowed seven earned runs in his last 28 innings. Colorado’s lefty is pitching far better as of late than his 5.36 ERA might suggest, but the Dodgers have continued their above-average hitting in the second half and the Padres have the second-best wRC+ since the All-Star Break.


Kolby Allard (TEX)   7/23 @ HOU   ***7/28 vs. ARI***  8/2 vs. LAA   8/7 @ OAK

Kolby Allard gets to take a grand tour around the AL West with the struggling Diamondbacks to break things up. His next four opponents have wRC+ figures of 1st, 27th, 6th, and 10th. Allard continues a tough stretch having faced the A’s and Blue Jays in his last two starts, tossing a combined 11 1/3 innings and allowing nine runs.


Soon To Be A Bad Schedule


Frankie Montas (OAK)   7/23 @ SEA   7/28 @ SD   8/3 vs. SD

The interleague schedule isn’t too favorable on the Oakland A’s here, as the Padres will dominate their schedule into August. Frankie Montas drew the short straw and will get them in back-to-back starts, He last pitched on Saturday against Cleveland, allowing two runs in six innings.


John Means (BAL)   7/27 vs. MIA   8/1 @ DET   8/6 vs. TB   8/11 vs. DET

John Means doesn’t have an immaculate schedule with the Rays coming up, and the Tigers have suddenly posted the sixth-best wRC+ since the All-Star Break. This would otherwise be a good schedule if Means had this in April or May, but the only relief coming up could be his next outing with the Marlins.


Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Justin Wick

Justin Wick is the communications supervisor for MLB's Arizona Fall League. He pitched collegiately at Creighton University (B.A. Journalism) and South Mountain Community College, and is a three-year veteran of the Northwoods League with the St. Cloud Rox. More of his work can be found on Purple Row covering the Colorado Rockies, and on Twitter @justwick.

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