SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/24 & 4/25

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s Gerrit Cole vs Shane Bieber and that’s all kinds of wonderful. Place your bets on who has the better line, I’m leaning Cole against an easier lineup. Over/under 20.5 strikeouts between them?
• I wrestled with the other rankings inside the Auto-Start tier, though. Do we favor aces like Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, and Aaron Nola in tough situations or do we lean Kevin Gausman and Pablo Lopez squaring off against each other and facing weak lineups? It’s incredibly even, here’s to all pitchers having success.

 

• I’d feel great starting all of Freddy Peralta, Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Stroman, Michael Pineda, Chris Bassitt, and Dallas Keuchel as all of them get comfortable matchups and have showcased a high floor.
• Even with Boyd’s slider failing to replicate its 2019 success, his changeup is phenomenal and should be able to quell the Royals.

 

• Leading off Tier 3 is Adbert Alzolay, making him the streaming pick of the day. It’s odd to see him get the Brewers a third time to kick off his season, but his fastball and slider mix against the wounded Brew Crew should spell production.
• It hasn’t been the ideal start to Jake Odorizzi’s 2021 campaign, and he may still be rusty as he faces the Angels. Here’s to hoping he finds a decent complement to his high heater in this one.

 

• Keep in mind, Ryan Yarbrough has Brent Honeywell as his opener, so while you don’t see The Fratty Pirate starting, he’ll get the bulk of the workload today.
• Drew Smyly is coming off the IL after missing just one outing and generally Still ILL doesn’t apply to missing just one start – I’d expect Smyly to not be on a very strict pitch count. The Diamondbacks are a great matchup (their Thursday outburst was off relievers, mostly) and here’s to hoping his fresh arm can dominate.

 

• It’s been great watching Kyle Gibson succeed over the past few weeks, but he’ll be challenged by the White Sox lineup. I think you’re better off looking elsewhere.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Many aces are going on Sunday and once again, don’t overthink this. Yes, start Lucas Giolito after his recent blowup, Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty in a repeat duel from their opening day disasters, and Lance McCullers now removed from his COVID vaccine.
• This also goes for Joe Musgrove who faces the mighty Dodgers but has performed so well that we don’t really care, do we?

 

• The second tier has four southpaws and Jameson Taillon, who I’m hoping can continue to take steps forward as he faces the lax Cleveland offense. He’s nailed down his fastball command, next step is earning whiffs with curveballs and sliders.
• I’m all for Danny Duffy against the Tigers as they struggle against lefties and Duffy’s 93-94 mph fastball has propelled him to success.

 

• In tier three, I’m streaming Matt Shoemaker in a rebound start against the Pirates. Let’s just forget about that last start, okay?
• Triston McKenzie hasn’t done much to discourage us, but I’m still cautious against a heating up Yankee lineup, especially as he’s still getting into his 2021 rhythm.

 

• Dustin May is normally in the second tier, but the Padres could prevent him from going six and work up the WHIP. The strikeouts could be there with his new curveball earning whiffs, though.
• Despite a lovely line in his last start, I’m still hesitant to start Patrick Corbin, who hasn’t nailed down his slider to turn it into the 20%+ SwStr rate death-sentence it was in 2019. Proceed with caution.

 

• I could see a scenario where you’d go with Jake Arrieta or Jon Gray on a desperate Sunday, with Arrieta getting a shot at a Quality Start against the banged up Brewers and Gray fresh off success.
• Taijuan Walker fought his command last time against the Cubs and I’m not certain he can cruise against the Nationals when he still doesn’t have a secondary pitch he can heavily rely on.

 

• Some may want to go with Logan Webb against Miami, but we haven’t seen it all come together quite yet. It’s a dangerous start.
• Kohei Arihara just carved up the Angels’ lineup, but is that enough to trust him against Chicago? I don’t think so.

 

• Michael Fulmer is on short rest after tossing sixty pitches and I imagine he’ll be on a limited pitch count here as well. Not for me.
• Don’t overlook the outside chance that Bryse Wilson can take advantage of a mediocre Arizona lineup. It’s a deep league option if you’re looking for anything.

 

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