SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 5/10 & 5/11

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• What a day this is. Tyler Mahle sits alone atop the ranks as not only does he have tier ability, but he gets a date with Pittsburgh. Enjoy the #1 rank, bucko.
• Alex Wood and Kyle Gibson are the other two solid options for the day, as Wood will be thrilled to get Texas after enduring Coors. Gibson’s on the other side and could keep his Vargas Rule alive as he’s been unstoppable as of late.

 

• In the third tier, I’m leading off with Martin Perez, who turns into my streamer pick of the day as he gets the Orioles. Not my favorite play to make, especially on a Monday as I wouldn’t want to risk getting into a hole early.
• The other considerable choice is Luis Garcia as he faces the Angels. It’s not a bad repertoire with some strikeout upside, but I’m not completely sold that it warrants a start. He’s getting close to earning my hype but I just need to see it for a little longer. I can get people wanting to take a chance on Garcia over Perez, though the matchups swing the pendulum the other way for me.

 

• In the final tier, I have the possible start of Dinelson Lamet as he heads to Coors. If he is starting, the likelihood of a short start is high, and when paired with the volatility of Coors, it makes for a clear Still ILL.
• I don’t like any of the options here and it feels weird even putting Mitch Keller as the #2 of anything, but hopefully he has both his slider and curveball in this one, allowing him to survive the Reds. He’ll certainly get his chance to perform, at the very least.

 

• Lastly, I can see some consider Luke Weaver as he gets the Marlins, but be cautious. Weaver hasn’t had his fastball/changeup command working save for one start in April and who knows if it’ll be there on Monday.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• We’re a start removed from John Means‘ no-hitter and here’s to hoping he can keep the momentum for a start against a tougher opponent in the Mets. It should work well, but the question pulls him under other proven starters in better matchups.
• Yu Darvish heads to Coors and is still an auto-start. You’re not #4 on The List if you’re not going to start them regardless of the matchup.

 

• It’s a massive second tier with a large range. We have arms like Marcus Stroman getting a clear start as he faces a questionable Orioles lineup, exciting pitchers like Robbie Ray enduring a tough Atlanta team, and middling pitchers like Adbert Alzolay and Brady Singer getting a bump due to their fantastic matchup.
• The middle section can be a tough choice to make. Will Shohei Ohtani get into a rhythm to improve his walk rate, even against Houston? Is this the start of Kenta Maeda’s redemption tour? Can Chris Bassitt keep up his hot streak? I’m leaning yes to all but I understand if you want to push them to the next tier.

 

• Staying with the second tier, Adbert Alzolay is the streaming pick of the day as he faces Cleveland. His slider-heavy approach has returned results and he should be able to help teams as he faces the mediocre Cleveland bats.
• I’m really hoping we see Dylan Cease fine-tune his heater and changeup in this outing. His start against the Reds came with a wonderful slider, but the rest of his repertoire got away with plenty. Here’s to a game that inspires confidence.

 

• In the third tier, it’s been a tough stretch for Nathan Eovaldi as of late, failing to come through against the Tigers and Mariners as his secondary stuff hasn’t been as sharp. He gets the Athletics now and there’s a sizeable risk there.
• Jeff Hoffman is another streaming option to consider and I can see him slotting above Yusei Kikuchi. I trust Kikuchi’s stuff more, but it’s the classic pitcher vs. opponent balance that may side against the weak Pirates lineup. I still don’t love the repertoire of Hoffman, though.

 

• In the final tier, there’s a chance that Logan Webb can come through against the Rangers, but he’s far from locked in with his stuff.
• You never know what you’re going to get from Jon Gray these days, but don’t rule out the chance that he can perform against the Padres in Coors. I’ve seen weirder things.

 

Photo by Tom Hagerty | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)