SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 5/27 & 5/28

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

2021 Streamer Record: 36-16

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s time for Shane Bieber to be the man we drafted, right? It’s the Tigers, you’ve got this Bieber.
• Despite not looking his best as of late, Sonny Gray is still in the top tier as he faces the middling Nationals offense. There isn’t enough risk here to turn down the potential reward.

 

• It’s an “Auto-Start” nod for Marcus Stroman as he’s fortunate to earn a start against Rockie Road. I’m not sure we’ll see him in the first tier again all season (I hope we do!) and let’s enjoy this moment for Stroman.
• The second tier features German Marquez squaring off against the Mets in New York. It’s the most ideal situation for Marquez – likely the best he’ll get all year – as the Mets are depleted and are outside Coors. Start him with confidence.

 

• We debated plenty about the order of the second tier during the Twitch stream and I settled on putting Chris Bassitt at the end – not because I don’t like this start, but simply because the other options are either safer or bring a higher ceiling to the table.
• Take Robbie Ray, for example. His K/BB rate has been insane since he began getting comfortable with four-seamers over the plate, while he’s begun adapting changeups, sliders, and curveballs well as of late to help complement his new approach. Pair that with a Yankee lineup without Stanton, Voit, and LeMahieu, and it could spell a week-winning outing.

 

• I gave a lot of thought to the order of the sixth tier as well, making Dylan Cease the best play of the lot. I can see some wanting him to head even to the second tier, but there’s still a lot of volatility inside his repertoire outside of his slider – even the Orioles could make for an inefficient outing from Cease.
• Jordan Montgomery has dominated in two of his last three outings, featuring a curveball that ranks among the best pitches in the majors in CSW. However, the Jays are no joke and be wary of the low floor here.

 

• Stephen Strasburg returned last week and gave you solid ratios against the Orioles…but it came with a sub 92 mph heater. I’m not sure Strasburg can be the man we associate with the name if he’s sitting that low on his fastball.
• The same goes for Shohei Ohtani who saw a five-tick drop in velocity last time out. There was no report of an injury, though, and hopefully it was just a weird moment in his exceptional season.

 

• The streaming pick of the day is Antonio Senzatela as he starts on the road (yes!) to face the damaged replaceMets. This may be the only time I’ll go with Senz-A the entire season and you should feel relatively safe doing so. Wild.
• Spencer Howard may be a popular play as well, though I have my concerns about how long he’ll be allowed to go against the Marlins. I’d also love to see more from his changeup and slider if I’m going to give him the nod in the future.

 

• In the final tier, Tyler Anderson is coming off a decimation at the hands of Atlanta, but could rebound against the Cubs. I don’t love it, but he’s shown plenty of upside so far this year.
• Alek Manoah should be picked up where he’s available as you wait and see how he performs in the Bronx. It’s simply too risky to let him fly in his first outing.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Nothing special here in the top tier, save for Ian Anderson getting the bump to the top with his matchup against the Mets. It really is a tough time to score runs with that crew at the moment.
• The second tier is a small affair as well, with two southpaws in Sean Manaea and Madison Bumgarner holding the fort. Bumgarner still has his 91/92 mph heater working for him, while Manaea got his velocity back in the last start. Both should be comfortable starts.

 

• The third tier kicks off with Dallas Keuchel as he gets the lefty-loving Orioles. Keuchel was in a good place around the edges against the Yankees and was plenty closer to success than his short outing would suggest. This could be a standard Toby affair against Baltimore.
• Adbert Alzolay has excelled with his slider and faces a volatile Cincy offense. There’s an unwelcome floor, but Alzolay could run away with a bunch of strikeouts.

 

• On one hand, it’s Jon Gray out of Coors and facing the Pirates. On the other, Gray has notoriously been more successful in Colorado for some odd reason. He’s been relying heavily on his slider through the year and it could be enough to succeed in Pittsburgh.
• The streaming pick of the day is Martin Perez as he could steal a Win against the Marlins. His lack of leash makes me favor him over the decent start slated for Randy Dobnak against the Royals.

 

• It’s the return of Framber Valdez and I’m incredibly conflicted. He performed like an ace in 2020, but it’s been a long time between then, with a clear disruption with his finger injury. This is also a Still ILL and he’s facing a tough Padres offense. However, it could just be more of the same and give you 5+ quality frames. Up to you if you want to take the chance.
• On the other side of the ball is Dinelson Lamet, who may be getting a proper start…and last about three innings? Maybe four or five? We’re still in the dark about the Padres’ plans for Lamet, making this one too risky to start against the Astros.

 

• The Dodgers may still be without Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, but I’m still scared starting Anthony DeSclafani against them as he got rocked last time out. Tony Disco is likely worth the hold through this outing, even if he is on the bench.
• Taijuan Walker could return from his IL stint to start tomorrow against Atlanta and I’m skeptical he can provide value. His momentum has been interrupted + Atlanta is a solid squad, even without Marcell Ozuna or Travis d’Arnaud.

 

• Yes, Cody Poteet has been on a roll to start his 2021 campaign, but now he gets the strong Red Sox lineup. You don’t want this.
• Casey Mize has been pitching at his best as of late, but that doesn’t mean you need to throw him out there in the game where Giancarlo Stanton returns to the lineup.

 

Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)