With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 64-46
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Look at Robbie Ray sitting at the top of the rankings as the sole AGA on Tuesday, despite facing the Red Sox. He’s just too dang good, y’all.
- At the bottom of the tier, Adam Wainwright gets the elevation to Tier 1 as any manager rostering Waino is sure to start him against Cleveland.
- Kenta Maeda has been in a groove since returning from the IL and should be able to continue his redemption tour against the Tigers, even if Detroit has been on a tear over the last month.
- There’s also Dylan Cease, who has been a bit erratic but should rack up the strikeouts while keeping ratios intact against a below-average Royals offense.
- The second tier has only two names as they face each other on Tuesday. We all adore Shane McClanahan and his stuff alone makes him worthwhile on a given night. The Yankees are hurting a bit, though still pack a decent punch and hold back Shane slightly from the top tier.
- Representing the other clubhouse is Jordan Montgomery, who has had his changeup and curveball working to great effect over his last few outings. The Rays are a bit scarier with Nelson Cruz on their side, but I’d still let The Bear get the start on my squads.
- The third tier kicks off with three arms we all want to hold through the week but were granted a difficult opponent. James Kaprielian has been cruising, but the Padres are a dangerous crew who could jump on his heater. Logan Webb is exciting with his slider and changeup and there is a chance he survives against the Dodgers.
- Then there’s Adbert Alzolay, who is facing a Reds team without Nick Castellanos. In a vacuum, Alzolay gives me the most concern disregarding opponent, making him slightly below the other two options. I’d still love to roster him and hope the new cutter + elite slider carries him through the end of the year.
- The back half of this tier is far from exciting, though I can see some making sneaky streams with this crew. Tyler Anderson is the streaming pick of the day as he faces the Brewers and as a proper Toby with a four-seamer that ranks highly on the CSW leaderboard, Anderson can make it worth your while.
- There’s also Taylor Widener against the Rangers and, yes, Spenser Watkins against Miami. Widener can sit 94 mph with a solid slider and changeup at times and may pull it out against a Rangers squad who could be without Joey Gallo if the stove heats early. Watkins is the right-handed version of J.A. Happ and may take full advantage of the weak Marlins lineup.
- In the bottom tier, I can see some turning to José Suarez as he gets to host Rockie Road. He’s still in the bottom tier given the lack of track record and a heavy reliance on his curveball pulling the weight, but this could work.
- I’ve moved past considering Dane Dunning in my leagues as he hasn’t tossed six frames in a start since May 20th, while fanning more than six batters just once this season. It ain’t for me, even against the Sneks.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- The top tier has the usual suspects as I’m placing Sean Manaea fourth despite getting the Padres. His heater has been electric across the last two months, sitting 92/93 mph instead of the 90/91 we saw at the start of the year. Let the man fly.
- It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Max Fried or Tyler Mahle as of late, but I’d still start them against the Mets and Cubs (respectively) if I had them rostered. Their floors are good enough to make it worth the slight gamble.
- In the second tier, I’m happy to give Kwang Hyun Kim some love as he’s fanned seven in two of his last three starts. He gets the lowly Guardians and should continue his successful 2021 journey.
- I have my concerns about Anthony DeSclafani and Yusei Kikuchi as they face strong squads in the Dodgers and Astros (respectively. Again.). Tony Disco is facing the Dodgers for the fifth time and has produced just once, while Kikuchi had to rely on a changeup last time out instead of his patented cutter/slider mix. I wonder if he has it in him to excel against Houston.
- It may be difficult to start Zach Plesac after his pedestrian outings since his return from the IL, but you should follow “The Cardinal Rule” and throw him out there.
- Lastly, there’s Jake Odorizzi, who wasn’t able to capitalize against the Rangers over the weekend. I expect him to rebound against the Mariners and make this worthwhile.
- In the third tier, let’s all collectively cross our fingers for Blake Snell to have a smooth start against the Athletics. Baseball is better with more legit aces.
- It may shock you, but Tylor Megill has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 30 frames as a big leaguer. His changeup has boasted a 23% SwStr rate and could continue his march against Atlanta.
- We have some other intriguing plays in the third tier. Andrew Heaney gets a taste of Rockie Road and could be more Cherry than Bomb, Madison Bumgarner gets the Rangers, but I’m worried about his fastball sitting under 90 mph in each of his last two starts, and Patrick Corbin may be returning to form as his heater sat 94 mph in his last outing.
- There’s one more option in the third tier, our streaming pick of the day. I’m not thrilled about Tanner Houck going against the Jays, but his slider is elite and could give them a rough day at the park.
- In the final tier, there aren’t many decent options for deep streams. I wouldn’t want to spin the wheel with J.A. Happ against the Tigers as he’s been burned by them before + Detroit has performed well over the last month.
- Jordan Holloway has a touch of electricity in that repertoire and there’s a small chance it comes out against a middling Orioles crew.
- I think we can all recognize that the Wily Peralta ride has come to a full stop, right? Please nod in agreement.
- There’s always a chance Zach Davies whips up some magic in his changeup/sinker combination but I sure as h*ck don’t want to bank on it against the Reds.
Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)