Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ TOR (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 105 pitches.
I’ve been waiting for a start from Ranger Suarez that I can point to and say “Aha! He’s clearly in a groove now.” Well, I’m not sure you need much analysis from me to tell you he’s in rhythm after returning a Golden Goal via 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 105 pitches (W) against the Jays. I watched it to make sure, and yeah, it’s Suarez. Kinda. Mostly.
The good news: He’s moving around the edges of the zone with all five pitches to RHB with ease. Cutters are up-and-in, sinkers and changeups are down-and-away, curveballs are low, and four-seamers are generally the surprise pitch that batters foul off, wishing they were expecting it over the plate. The bad news: He’s still down two clicks in extension, his sinker has 2″ less drop and ride, and there’s no way he’ll come close to sustaining a 39% putaway rate.
At the very least, we’re in a place where Suarez is worthy of your time. He’ll host the Astros in Fenway and while this very well could be a Dennis (it’s good enough Suarez, not PEAK SUAREZ), we should all celebrate a moment where we can feel okay slotting him into our lineups. And look, if he’s mid against the Astros, you have to hold for the Rays, right?
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Max Fried (NYY) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. If you wanted more strikeouts, I don’t blame you, but this is prime Fried right now. It’s nice when a pitcher is exactly what you thought he’d be when you drafted him. Not a 20% strikeout rate. It’ll come, don’t worry.
Wilber Dotel (PIT) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 44 pitches.
Uhhhh, this is clearly awesome, and it would have been your dream come true if not for a ninth-inning disaster that stole the dub from Dotel. He only pitched because Ashcraft was placed on the bereavement list and he obviously went max effort at from 98-101 mph with a good 16/17″ vert at 1.6 HAVAA. Ummm. Can you let him start? I mean, sure, his fastball command is a little suspect, but the 88 mph change, 89 gyro slider, and even the bridge 93 mph cutter are good enough to support the fastball. I’m kinda without a wand and stupefied right now. I’m going to guess he can’t go 75%+ strikes on four-seamers consistently and control is the major issue, and yet, did you watch this?! Anyway, he’s not starting again, so let’s tuck this away for now.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs TBR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
Amazing. His cutter command was stellar to RHB, a pitch he didn’t have last year which was thrown for 63% strikes at 22% usage in this one. He’s still a tick up on everything with extra cut on the four-seamer, the changeup is down all the time (40% SwStr rate), and there’s not much else to say. He’s cooking. I’m starting him in Sacré Verde, I don’t even care.
Steven Matz (TBR) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
Matz has been getting some great matchups and we keep rolling through the Giants up next. What about Fenway and the Jays after? I’m a little more hesitant there and would consider swapping out Matz if you had multiple exciting options to choose from, like we saw during last week’s prospect explosion. That said, he located his changeup and sinker absurdly well along the edges to RHB. Nothing down the heart of the plate. It was awesome.
Dustin May (STL) @ PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.
Just gonna throw this out there: May has been kinda solid since his first two terrible games, allowing fewer runs in his last four combined than either of his first two games (5 ER vs 6 & 7). Unfortunately, he gets the Dodgers next and he’s still absolutely terrible at finding strikeouts (low 2-str rate, and a 8% putaway rate here). Pretty fun to see seven feet of extension on his cutter now, though. Huh. There’s so much potential if he could just locate better.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ CHW (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
Ayyyy, it worked! Jackie 5xK was able to land the sinker for some fun strikeouts on the edges + earn plenty of outs, while the slider earned a fair number of whiffs, but was incredibly erratic. The changeup was good at times, and the four-seamer appeared randomly and was generally meh, so don’t get super hyped about this one. Blame it on the White Sox. At least he’ll get the Mets next.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
I was vocal in my adoration of Prielipp after his MLB debut and those who picked him up are sure to like the results thus far. However, this wasn’t nearly as good of a performance as his last outing. The four-seamer and slider command was far worse, with plenty more cross-polination, and a terrible 50% strike rate on four-seamers. His sinker stayed away to LHB, and the curve went 3/6 strikes. HOWEVER, the changeup was much better (even with a few bad misses), and I’m encouraged to see it work well to RHB. I hope we get more of it and I’m continuing to roll with him against the Jays. I’m a touch less encouraged, though. The line was better than the performance.
Chris Paddack (MIA) @ LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 67 pitches.
He did his best against the Dodgers, giving you nothing of value in the end. Not even butter for your bread. My poor, poor baguette. At least he has good four-seamer/change separation…? That’s all I got. Don’t do it.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna fail to demand he become the SP #3 in next week’s ranking. Against the Marlins, no less! I could tell you about the three-run shot in the fifth and call it a day, but that would ignore the four walks and few strikeouts that simply isn’t The Inquisitor’s style. Nothing alarming under the hood, so we move on. Whatareyagonnado.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
For a start against the Yankees, one ER away from a VPQS isn’t the worst…? I got nothing from this start. Yeah, alright. It’s not as if only aces ever have a good outing against the Pinstripes. Leiter continues his struggles to execute his legit stuff, and I don’t like rostering a HIPSTER like him. Sure, it’s possible it clicks and he’s a smooth strikeout arm the rest of the way, but the chance is too low to keep enduring this.
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs BOS (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 107 pitches.
It’s kinda wild to see a line like this from a guy who holds a 39% strikeout rate for the season. It’s a 2.05 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. Welcome to the Cease experience. There’s nothing you can do but hold and hope. Hold and hope.
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
One day, Kay will locate his pitches where he intends to. One day.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 106 pitches.
This wasn’t the best we’ve seen Vásquez, where his cutter and four-seamer were fought off plenty, and a hanging curveball was launched for a grand slam. Brush it off and go enjoy the CrySox.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
Yikes. The four-seamer wasn’t well commanded and returned just 2 whiffs, but it wasn’t the problem – the changeup was. The Padres went hunting for the pitch and tagged it for five hits, the biggest off the bat of Ty France in a 3-2 count in the first for an early bamboozling. I wouldn’t count out Boyd based on this one, but the reduction of whiffs is a little disheartening. I think locating the heater better upstairs to put a little more fear into batters and end at-bats earlier would prevent them from circling the change when sequencing.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 97 pitches.
This was a rainy 50-degree day in Minnesota, which explains the 93/94 mph, while the horizontal movement was stellar on his fastballs and changeup. The bad news? He’s super hittable. It’s been an issue for a while. He gets to host the Royals on Sunday + heads to Chicago on Saturday, and it’s possible he’s a Toby moving forward. I just don’t think it’s worthwhile, regardless of this start.
Game of the Day
Cam Schlittler vs. Jacob deGrom – This. Is. DOPE.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
