Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Well look at this. Shane Smith had a fun debut start of the year, but his fatigue after 50 pitches had me questioning whether he could return proper fantasy value as soon as his next start against the Guardians. Guess I was wrong. With a line of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches (ND), it’s hard to ignore Smith and his sweet sweet changeup.
The thing is, that changeup performed well, but not this well. And his four-seamer? A 34% CSW, but 94 mph as he dropped off hard in the later innings and it came with terrible shape. Yes, he located it up and in the zone well and it paired well with the slow ball at good extension, but is that enough? Did Koufax do a whole lot of work here?
Smith also faced a high number of LHB, allowing him to turn to the changeup more than the slider or curve, two pitches that lack electricity. Y’all know I’ve been in on the fella since expecting him to be the SP #5 early in camp and this is awfully cool to see, but let’s temper those expectations just a little bit. I wouldn’t count on him to be reliable until his stamina can maintain the 95/96 mph heater throughout the game, while the breakers need some work to reliably miss bats. He’s not an auto-pickup with Boston up next.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Everything is fine y’all.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
The dude keeps cruising. Once again, the changeup feel against RHB is coming along, granting plenty of outs at the sacrifice of a low CSW. The fastballs are generally tough to hit, and the curve to RHB was a welcome sight with just six total pitches to LHB. It’s not his final form and a better offense may have punished him, but I’m liking his ability to stay on the mound and work on the craft for a while. Keep this going.
Framber Valdez (HOU) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Despite feeling under the weather, Valdez drank The Tea (T-Mobile Park) and was reinvigorated. Great to see the changeup come alive for 70% strikes when the curve wasn’t performing as well as we’ve seen in the past.
Easton Lucas (TOR) @ BOS (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
I gotta hand it to Lucas. He gets the Gold Star, sure, but he earned this. The sweeper avoided the heart of the plate to LHB and he nailed four-seamers at 18″ of vert upstairs and inside to RHB, with some solid changeups to RHB. It was clearly a tough heater to square up and there may actually be something to this. Huh. I guess some of us are Easton bound and down to give this a spin. But it’s the Orioles next. Fair, but then the Mariners. Let’s see how it goes.
Ben Lively (CLE) vs CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
HE’S NOT BAD. That heater would be legit if it weren’t 89 mph, you know. Anyway, Blame it on the White Sox as Koufax was looming over him with a cheeky grin. I’m proud of y’all who went with the stream.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
The sneaky stream worked! 51% changeups from Hendricks as he did his best Webb impression, and with the Astros next, you completely move on from this Werewolf.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.
You love to see it. There’s no place like home, aka T-Mobile Park, aka The Tea. This was a day of Castillo kissing the ball and chucking it as hard as he could with only 16 non-fastballs in the mix…and just 44% strikes. It’s good to pitch in Seattle.
Pablo López (MIN) @ KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 78 pitches.
This was so fun until PabLó noticeably grabbed his leg for what appears to be a hamstring injury. He was finally spotting his sweeper away, dangit! IT WAS ALL COMING TOGETHER! Ugh, I hope he’s alright.
Brad Lord (WSN) vs LAD (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 55 pitches.
Brad throws 95 mph heaters with a decent amount of vert and that’s about it. Cool. Welp, see ya later.
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna PEW PEW PEW for a Golden Goal. Ragans faced mostly RHB and had his changeup cooking for 9/21 whiffs and 52% CSW. THAT’S WHAT’S UP. Sadly, the cutter was completely cut and his curveball was tested for 8/17 strikes (blegh), but the slider had more moments than usual and that was cool. I just wish that cutter was back and thriving again…
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
This is still a bit of a work in progress as Roupp’s changeup was unruly at just 4/16 strikes and mostly used against LHB. The cutter appeared as he faced far more LHB this time around and the pitch worked well, while the breaker is still destined to miss bats. He’s a little raw still, but I dig the overall makeup and expect this to work well over time. There is a bit of risk entering his start against the Phillies, though. He’s not firmly locked in.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 107 pitches.
Aces gonna sit 95 mph and fall massively as he scaled above 90 pitches. To see just 6.7 feet of extension and less velocity with only a 53% strike rate is a bit harrowing, but remember, it’s cold everywhere right now. Low 30s in Boston. Yup. Ignore, move on.
Sonny Gray (STL) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 71 pitches.
Did Sonny have a horrible sweeper and sit 91 mph? Sure. Was he able to make sure your teams weren’t affected? Sure did. Thank you Sonny. We appreciate you for making it work.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
What is it with Peralta in Coors? He stuffed four-seamers in the faces of LHB with ease and barely needed the breakers to help against RHB. Thanks for being a fun arm to roster early in the year, Freddy. It’s not lost on me.
Shane Baz (TBR) vs LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.
This curve is still dope and I loved his aggression toward high heaters. There were a few annoying at-bats, but mostly a solid performance from the one-two punch + some terrible sliders in between. And some floated changeups to LHB that generally worked. Whatever, I love his main two offerings and we’re cool.
Connor Gillispie (MIA) @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
He couldn’t throw the heater for strikes and the cutter was loitering over the plate. Oh, and the sweeper went 0/23 whiffs. Where is low era Connor? Arnold, you’re not even close.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yes, we’ll take a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP. Thanks Taillon, I appreciate you and your great curveball in this one. Way to be a little pickier with the cutter location, too. Good luck with the Padres up next, who knows if this Toby can produce there.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
See? A PQS and he’s totally fine. He is who we thought he was.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
If a VPQS is your thing, then this was all sunshine and rainbows. For us in standard leagues, Springs’ fastball got hit too often while the slider struggled once again to miss bats. But hey, 10/33 whiffs on the changeup showcases why we’re paying attention. The White Sox are up next, so be nice to yourself. The human. Like you do all humans, of course.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
We meet again. At least you’re going 26% cutters with five other pitches in the arsenal…? Nah, that’s a terrible line. HAISTBMBWT?!
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs MIA (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 87 pitches.
This was looking fantastic until the sixth, where he allowed a pair of baserunners and both bequeathed runners came home. He threw far more strikes this time around (just not with the cutter and changeup, but whatever), but it may be at the cost of velocity. Instead of 94/95 mph, we got 92 mph, which is a bit concerning (it was pretty cold in NYC, though), even if the four-seamer returned 47% CSW in its 20% usage. The HIPSTER reality is here for The Adobe, which sounds like I’m hating on Williamsburg housing AND I’M NOT. You just don’t know how long to hold on to Holmes and that’s maddening. I think he gets better over time if there isn’t an injury in the way (just the weather, right?) and things will smooth out. Probably.
Charlie Morton (BAL) @ ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
Yep, that’s Morton and we don’t want anything to do with him. But sadly, Baltimore fans need to – with Eflin going down due to a lat injury, Morton has officially become the SP #1 for the Orioles. Say what now? I’m sorry, should I have said Kremer? Or Povich? Or Gibson in a few weeks? Maybe Sugano or newly acquired Poteet? Nick, are you trying to summon the spirit of Alex Fast? IS HE HERE?!
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) @ DET (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 59 pitches.
His job is to go five frames of three runs or fewer and he always got there. Sometimes, the Cookie crumbles.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs MIL (L) – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 100 pitches.
He tried everything he could and in the end, Coors is undefeated. Thems the breaks.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna…OH COME ON SKENES. What, can him and Skubal not have success at the same time anymore? Some spiritual balance schtick? I think it’s the beard. I think you may be on to something.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
The pitch separation to RHB was stupid cool, but he was sub 93 mph? It was the mid 50s, Sale. He still had 36% CSW on the pitch, but still, that’s not what we want to see. Don’t make me afraid, Sale.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ ATL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna…you too?! The sinker wasn’t spotted well and the sweeper was horrible. Welp, whatareyagonnado.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Womp womp. Wrobleski had himself a delicious spring and the Nationals had no respect for his March numbers. It doesn’t help that Justin sat two ticks down (but with better extension…? At least it’s 5.6 and not 5.2!) and located a ton of pitches over the heart of the plate. He’ll get Rockie Road next, assuming the Dodgers don’t move on after just one outing, and I think I’m still in for that one.
Dylan Cease (SDP) @ ATH (ND) – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.
Cease got bamboozled for six runs in the first and was Singled Out in Sacramento. That’s it? I mean, yeah? He’s Cease. He does this at times and it’s absurdly frustrating. We all know this. And no, there wasn’t a cutter in his six pitches featured here, but at least the changeup went 3/6 whiffs, eh? Stop it. OKAY, END THE ARTICLE.
Game of the Day
Max Meyer vs. Tylor Megill – Ayyyy it’s two interesting late round flyers squaring off! Noice.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
@Nick … I’m curious, where did you pick up the phrase “Keep the main thing the main thing.” that inspired this punny title? Just curious because I have a very specific timeframe and person that comes to mind. And I guess indirectly a place b/c of that person (Gaithersburg, MD) and even in the realm of business (books on motivation, productivity, efficiency, etc.) I have never heard it as consistently or phrased quite the same way. The closest is probably Stephen R. Covey. Anyway, I could be totally off base and maybe you were inspired by Covey or the phrase has become much more common in the past 20-25 years than I realize, but I thought I would ask just in case.
You can hit me on Discord instead @EN_HUFF if you prefer.
Love to see a bit of a turnaround on your Easton Lucas take. This is not a guy I’ve follow much but the tape looks outstanding. Haven’t watched a full start but I see him consistently dotting the heater at 93-96, a lot of times blowing it by guys at the top of the zone. The heater looks to have outstanding shape n he controls it well. Changeup looks good, slider looks good. Seeing good command and control. Gotta think this guy may be a diamond in the rough, reminds me of Cole Ragans. He has RP eligibility which is huge and drives the value up here.
I am so sorry. It’s from The Bachelorette. Keep the main thing the main thing.
Ha! I have never watched The Bachelorette so that totally explains why it seems very specific to me, but probably everyone else would understand and then read my comment, turn to one side with a hand covering he side of their mouth, and whisper,
“What a noob!” to the imaginary “next person over” reading your article.
Regardless, as always, thank you for combining great analysis with adequate humor and plenty of fun (even if some things go over my head)!