Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Luis Ortiz (PIT) vs TEX (W) – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
I removed Luis Ortiz from The List today for a few reasons. His recent starts have come without a strong slider, his fastballs have been clobbered, and the Pirates looked to be replacing him with Vince Velasquez later this week. Surely he wouldn’t excel against the Rangers tonight…? Oh. He did. 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches with a Win + a giant egg on my face. Thanks, enjoy the Gold Star.
I watched all of this one and I really wanted to sing his praises. His first inning was spectacular, even his first two pitches were a filthy sinker and slider pairing to get to an 0-2 count that yelled “SEE I’M DOPE” as I buckled in for an ego wound. And even after seven frames at just 67 pitches, I was still wincing, waiting for the moment when I’d feel foolish and naive. But it never came as Ortiz walked his only two batters early in the eighth and was pulled after Semien knocked in the Rangers’ second run of the game.
Plain and simple, it was a good night and not a launching pad. What I saw was a pitcher who struggled to spot his slider and induced outs with his fastballs. Were they the best located fastballs? Not really. Do they look nasty? They do…but are shockingly hittable at their 96/97 mph velocity (3/50 whiffs) and with their hard hit track record, I don’t believe they are the best generators of outs on traditional evenings.
That’s how I see it. I imagine it’s not how others see it, but I gather Ortiz is a PEAS much more than a potential ace and with the playing time question merged with an approach, I don’t love a whole lot, I’m still staying away. It even had the feeling of a…dare I say it…Birthday Party. ON TODAY OF ALL DAYS.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Thank you Castillo for doing what you’re supposed to do against the Athletics, earning a Gallows Pole in the process. And doing so with two ticks extra velocity and a 46% CSW four-seamer? That’s what’s up.
Hunter Gaddis (CLE) vs CWS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
With Peyton Battenfield on the mend, Gaddis got another chance in the rotation and took full advantage. Sadly, I don’t love the heater despite its 7/37 whiffs and I can’t see myself chasing this one with the Cardinals next.
Jaime Barría (LAA) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 64 pitches.
Barría went just 23% fastballs as he was able to torture the Red Sox with sliders and changeups constantly. I kinda love it, though it requires a specific feel of the pitches to make it work. One I don’t trust Barría to have with consistency. His slider is far better than the changeup, too, which means the right-handed heavy White Sox next may be a team to stream against. Interesting.
Trevor Kelley (TB) vs TOR (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 30 pitches.
He opened for six frames of Josh Fleming, who earned a Win via 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Impressive to see against the mighty Jays, and yet I still want nothing to do with it. He’s a hassle to roster and this may be the best game he’ll give you the rest of the season.
John Brebbia (SF) @ MIN (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 13 pitches.
Brebbia opened for Sean Manaea, who went 3.2 IP, 0 ER, and eight strikeouts. Yes, that’s 8/11 outs by way of the K, but was pulled after just 3.2 innings of work as he needed 83 pitches for those eight strikeouts (and three walks and three hits). Manaea keeps finding a way to be oh-so-strange this year.
Jimmy Lambert (CWS) @ CLE (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 20 pitches.
He opened for Jesse Scholtens, who was able to produce with 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. You can ignore this and move on.
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace, even when the slider was under the weather. A bad case of the Flew-out-of-the-zone.
Tanner Houck (BOS) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 83 pitches.
Whoaaaaa, a King Cole from Houck?! Huh. That slider was every whisper of its elite nature across 34 thrown for 54% CSW while the splitter returned a marvelous 38% of its own. In fact, Houck tossed enough strikes that he could handle the Angels lineup with just 19% fastballs thrown. NINETEEN PERCENT. That’s absolutely bonkers and I love it. Houck needs those secondaries to get strikes for this to work, though, and with the slider and splitter combining for a 70% strike rate, it worked in a wonderful way in this one. Boy do I hope it sticks.
Dane Dunning (TEX) @ PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
The guy who fails to miss bats and relies on balls in play didn’t miss bats and too heavily relied on balls in play. More at eleven. He’s lucky it was just one earned and the odds are not in your favor if you’re starting Dunning with any regularity. Really wanted him to perform a touch better here.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ TB (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.
Four unearned runs are left off this line, though they did mess him up a bit. Bassitt is a shining example of what a Holly has become and I love it. I’m so glad the velocity has returned, I know how vocal I was in the spring about my fear of it never returning and I’m so glad to be wrong.
Tommy Henry (ARI) @ PHI (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
Wow, that’s a full-on productive start from Henry as he returned 18 whiffs with a harder heater and a well spotted changeup, all while avoiding the heart of the plate. Huh. He gets Boston + Atlanta next so we ignore it but…huh.
Chase Anderson (COL) vs MIA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Is a 1.76 WHIP with a sole strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) worth the near 3.00 ERA? Didn’t think so.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna return a VPQS, return three strikeouts, and get outdueled by Tommy Henry. I’ve been lenient on Wheeler this season with anticipation of a return to form given that his .333 BABIP + 64% LOB rate likely stabilizes over time as his 20% hard contact is 15th best in the majors. You can blame the .429 BABIP on the four-seamer that really shouldn’t be anywhere near that. It’s really really dumb and is awfully annoying when the pitch currently has an incredible 17% SwStr rate. I’m buying low if someone wants out at his high ERA and WHIP.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ COL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
What a weird one. You see one walk and you think Cabrera earned four-seamer strikes. Nope, Chuck Testa 48% strikes on his most thrown pitch of the night at 37% usage. Then his changeup did well? Nah, 13% CSW. His curveball…? 59% strikes. So what was it? Okay I kinda lied – the changeup had a low CSW, but it induced a ton of outs and he spotted well down-and-away, allowing him to earn a PQS inside Coors. Huh. It seems pretty unreliable with the low strike rate and reliance on BABIP, but it’s a decent schedule ahead so maybe we just roll with it now and hope for the best. The curve and change are generally pretty dang good.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
H’oh boy. I didn’t have a whole lot of faith here, but with the Cubs next and not a whole lot of a leg to stand on inside his repertoire, I think it’s best we just ignore Williamson and move on.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs SF (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 76 pitches.
This was one of the easier hits on Ober’s schedule and sadly it didn’t go too well. I still think his command of the four-seamer and changeup were there and nothing set off alarm flags. Alarm flags? You know, the flag you wave when you hear an alarm. Do they have a color associated with them? …the color of a ringing sound?
Jordan Montgomery (STL) @ CIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
Yikes. Another rough one for Monty as the curve failed to earn a single whiff across sixteen thrown. At the same time, the changeup went 13/39 whiffs, so at least he has that going for him. We hold with the Guardians next and we’ll assess from there.
Michael Lorenzen (DET) @ KC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Womp womp. After a trio of great starts, Lorenzen felt like a solid play against a middling Royals crew. But noooo, he had to allow three home runs in Kauffman because THAT’S HOW IT GOES. Whatever, he gets the White Sox twice now and as long as he doesn’t pump as many meatballs down the middle, I think he’ll be fine in the short term.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh no. No no no no no. Corbin allowed four home runs and earned just two whiffs on the cutter. He made a few mistakes that got pummeled, but Burnes hasn’t been doing the Burnes things we expect this year and it’s starting to scare a whole lot of us. I wish I had a great answer for you – my guess has been that the secondaries this season haven’t helped a whole lot like they used to but it seems like there’s more at play – and all we can do is keep starting Burnes and hope for the best. Maybe this was just one of those nights against a really good offense and that’s that.
Gavin Stone (LAD) @ ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
You have to wonder how much the Dodgers will actually let Stone pitch this year. If Miller looks solid tomorrow, there’s no way Stone sticks around once Urías returns.
Brady Singer (KC) vs DET (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 87 pitches.
Yeeeeeesh. Just 2/40 slider whiffs will do that to a man. A Cherry Bomb does what a Cherry Bomb do.
Kyle Muller (OAK) @ SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 97 pitches.
Here’s to Muller’s redemption tour coming in 2025. It’s gonna be wild. I still have the shirt from the first tour. That venue was completely empty, in my best friend’s garage.
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Morton, you absolute tease, you. High CSW marks across the board but the Dodgers got to you and it hurts our souls. Yes I’m going to try it again for your start against the Phils and I’ll be so upset if you ruin that one too. I miss the 20 whiff curveball game. Me too, random human. Me too.
Game of the Day
Bobby Miller vs. Spencer Strider – It’s Bobby’s World and Spencer is just living in it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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