Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 5/7: Should We Care About Jobe?

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Jackson Jobe (DET) @ COL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.

I’ve been commenting on how Jackson Jobe is going through his developmental period in the majors and shockingly displayed a higher floor than the Shag Rug dictates. That was before he went into Coors for 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches (ND). Welp, that was foolish, now wasn’t it?

A pair of two-run home runs caused the loudest damage of the night, both on breakers leaking too far over the middle of the plate, but there’s more to this rough outing than that. Jobe couldn’t locate sinkers or four-seamers effectively, while the curve and change didn’t support his slider as much as they needed to. It was difficult to watch Jackson struggle to execute what would have dismantled this horrific Colorado offense. The worst part? There isn’t much we can do. We can drop him. Sure, you can, and the pitcher we saw today and last time out are not 12-teamer worthy arms. However, the stuff is still fantastic and the whole understanding is to hang in for the long haul. Maybe that’s unwise (after all, I talk about how we should be heavily weighing value now over value later), but I can’t shake the thought that Jobe will be smooth sailing once he leaves these growing pains.

He’ll host the Sawx and and head to Toronto next, and I’m personally holding and letting him fly. The slider is still a studly offering, and I expect the supporting cast to fill in the holes far better in the future. That’s just me, though, and I could be falling for the trap of the Shiny Squirrel once again.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:

 

Michael Wacha (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.

Wacha against the White Sox was such a clear slam dunk. And to think he did this with just 21% changeup usage at just 2/18 whiffs. Blame it on the White Sox but also embrace Wacha for being the sturdy Toby you were thrilled to add to your team in Week 1.

Sonny Gray (STL) vs PIT (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 89 pitches.

Atta boy Sonny! 92/93 mph with low sweepers and backdoor curves is a lovely sight, and the fastballs + cutter worked well over the plate. Tons of strikes in this one and that’s the game plan that works for a weak team like the Pirates.

Kodai Senga (NYM) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.

The cutter faith is returning, but the four-seamer is still in decline. 21% CSW with sub 16″ vert and sub 95 mph velocity still gives me a bit of the ick, while the Ghost Fork went just 2/19 whiffs. And once again, I speak ill of Senga’s approach and arsenal on a night when the results are very acceptable. He gets the Pirates next so let’s hope these problems don’t come up in a major way.

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.

Here’s a weird one. Sánchez is still struggling to get his changeup feel back since the forearm scare began – here with a 50% strike rate and just 1/22 whiffs, despite locating the pitch generally well to RHB. The real success of this outing? Mostly a date with the Rays + a 32% CSW sinker. Not prime Sánchez and it’s easy to question if his changeup performance is a direct product of that “not injured/injured” forearm, but we’re still starting him against the Cardinals up next.

Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs LAD (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 76 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! A King Cole against the Dodgers is an absolute shocker, granting Bellozo the obvious Gold Star for the night. Props to him for returning 46% CSW on his cutter + well-spotted four-seamers to steal 8/20 called strikes on the pitch. His sweeper was dotted away for 5/15 whiffs, too, and way to be your best self for a night, Vellozo. I don’t trust it for a second, but it shows us all why you are a major leaguer. Everyone is for a reason.

Landon Knack (LAD) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 75 pitches.

Roberts let him go the full five frames and we got the Win we wanted. Let’s all appreciate the Marlins for not smashing Knack into thousands of pieces and allowing his changeup and four-seamer to exist down the heart of the plate. It doesn’t look as though Knack is set to get another start anytime soon and we wish you the best. See y’all, and thanks for all the fish.

Hunter Greene (CIN) @ ATL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 53 pitches.

Greene was pulled after three frames with a groin injury and I hate everything. At least it wasn’t an arm injury, but this could place him on the IL and the fact he was already at 16/53 whiffs on the night says it all. And he was sitting 100 mph. Okay that wasn’t said in that previous sentence, but NOW it’s all been said.

Max Fried (NYY) vs SDP (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. His four-seamer precision mixed with sinkers was absurd.

Framber Valdez (HOU) @ MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 101 pitches.

Annnnd this is one of those starts that helps you forget all about those troublesome times across the last few weeks. Did you make those up? As I was saying…

Dylan Cease (SDP) @ NYY (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 89 pitches.

Cease was flirting with a no-hitter until Bellinger went up and out of the zone to chase a two-strike heater and sent it well over the right field wall. That’s baseball, Suzyn. He would have finished the seventh if not for getting pulled with a forearm cramp that “made his hand close up for a few seconds.” It seems like he’s fine, but who really knows these days. As for the start itself, a Gallows Pole and dominance like this (A fantastic BSB against LHB and typical dominance to RHB) is a massive shock given his recent struggles, which were seemingly a product of a disconnect with his mechanics. Looks like those issues are solved. I think you’re right, for now. Let’s hope the song and dance of being a Cherry Bomb is over for now and we can get back to learning that cutter, eh?

Robbie Ray (SFG) @ CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.

What a weird one yet again. The slider was the sole plan for LHB and returned just 3/26 whiffs overall, while the curve was heavily favored to RHB (Yes, the curve! The pitch that has barely made an appearance this season!) and went…36% strikes. Thankfully, Ray could chuck heaters over the plate for 83% strikes (I’m telling y’all, Ray should not have an elevated walk rate because of that heater being much different than his pre-2021 versions) and the Cubs weren’t able to do much at all. Phew. I hope Ray finds the curve a little during a bullpen session before his next start – I adore that the pitch is suddenly making its return. Mind fixing the changeup the same trip, too?

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.

Ayyyyy, gotta love this outing. The Jays’ morale is super low with the way their offense has been performing, and the fastball is still around 95 mph for Kikuchi, but at least the slider and four-seamer filled the zone and let Toronto beat themselves. No, I’m still not interested in Kikuchi. He had control tonight, but the command was highly suspect once again. I’d hold off against the Padres.

Quinn Priester (MIL) vs HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.

The slider woke up and was spotted well down-and-away to the RHB-exclusive lineup, but I still heavily dislike his 93 mph sinker. It’s not a superbly located pitch and it’s just not that great of an offering. Sure, it’s possible he replicates this against the Guardians up next. I don’t want him near my team to find out.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.

Put the dang fuse away, there’s more to life than chasing a 3.00 ERA. Like not having a 1.50 WHIP? Or earning a Win? Or allowing us all to butter our bread? HAISTBMBWT?! You obviously understand this, so why did you have the fuse in the first place? It’s dark in here.

José Berríos (TOR) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 89 pitches.

The curve was dazzling. 47% CSW with 12/38 whiffs is superb and yet you see the final line. Five walks?! Yeaaaah, the fastballs were inconsistent and the curve was really the only pitch he felt comfortable throwing, save for sinkers down the pipe. The man is The Great Undulator, of course he’s going to have ups and downs.

Gunnar Hoglund (ATH) vs SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.

The sweeper was much better here at 41% CSW and outside of foolishly tying his shoes to allow a stolen base, Hoglund had a solid day at the park. It’s a great four-seamer that should make lives difficult for LHB and RHB alike when upstairs, though I’m still waiting for a start that allows him to display a legit putaway rate with one of his breaking balls.

Tyler Mahle (TEX) @ BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 88 pitches.

Oh so that’s what you’re going to be now, eh Mahle? A weekly HAISTBMBWT?! with a shift away from the cutter that actually made you interesting in your last start. I’m not interested with the fastball at 92 mph without another pitch to work with and my hope for the cutter to be that move is obviously dwindling.

Tanner Houck (BOS) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.

The velocity held! We’re still at 95/96 mph (not 93/94!) and the sweeper…is still missing over four inches of lateral movement. If the splitter were able to land glove-side exclusively to LHB as we saw last year, I’d be all over this. Sadly, it all feels a little disjointed still, even at the added velocity.

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 61 pitches.

Womp womp. The four-seamer didn’t go upstairs but WHOA. Now we’re at 20″ of vert on that four-seamer so duuuude, get that dang things upstairs! Oh, and find more whiffs on your secondaries, while you’re at it. And do better than 3/11 changeup strikes. Just a thought. Doesn’t seem like we’re going to get all of that by the Orioles next week, sadly.

Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs NYM (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.

Yep, that’s good ole Kelly with slightly better than a PQS. I’m glad his legs weren’t Jelly Kelly this time out, allowing him to go nearly 98 pitches without cramps causing an early exit. We roll with ease against the Giants.

Mitch Keller (PIT) @ STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.

A VVPQS without a Win nor a single pitch returning more than three whiffs. Yup, that’s a Keller start.

Ben Brown (CHC) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 103 pitches.

The nine strikeouts are wonderful with his four-seamer doing the hard work at 8/65 whiffs. Seeing just three changeups as the #3 pitch (0/3 strikes) and a curve that allowed far too much contact outlines why I’ve avoided him so much. That said, he was my streaming pick due to limited options and I’m calling this one a loss given how the ratios hurt. Sigh. You’re not the guy we want you to be.

Charlie Morton (BAL) @ MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.

Wait, they allowed you to start again? I guess this looks better than expected across 70 pitches…? Yay…?

Logan Allen (CLE) @ WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.

Even against a weak offense like the Nats, the name with two first & last names should not be started. Don’t cast L.A. on your teams.

Grant Holmes (ATL) vs CIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.

Wow, buddy. You won us all back onto your side after that Dodgers outing and this is how you repay us? Nick, two solo shots were all that was in the way of this being a solid outing. Still, I want more than 12/88 whiffs against the Reds. Show us the REAL stuff from last year! The curve can’t be thrown just ten times for 50% strikes. We need more. At least you get the Nationals on Monday and you get a chance to prove yourself one more time. Don’t make me re-watch The Big Short for the fifth time.

Michael Soroka (WSN) vs CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 78 pitches.

I initially thought I’d be leading with Soroka until a textbook Careful, Icarus arrived in the sixth – Soroka allowed all four men he faced on base, including a bases-clearing double by Carlos Santana, who also scored once Soroka left the game. I was surprised to see Soroka turn away from the changeup that went 6/18 whiffs in his final rehab start, especially with an army of LHB in Cleveland. It could be because the slider was just that good with a 50% CSW across 34 thrown. The Guardians don’t intimidate a bunch and a date with Atlanta should make for a tougher time, but I’m inclined to give it a try. He was incredibly unfortunate to not get five shutout frames in this one.

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.

The curse of The List is real! Or maybe Woo was bamboozled in the first and settled down after. Don’t worry about this, I’m not removing his AGA tag.

Shane Baz (TBR) vs PHI (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.

Bleeeegh. This is not the outcome you wanted, but I’m not nearly as down on this one as I was about his previous start. First, the Phillies n all. Second, his heater jumped back up to 97/98 mph with a great 74% strike rate. Third, the curve was comfortably inside the zone as well, and this could have gone a different way. And lastly, the changeup was pretty dang cool to LHB. I have to mention, Baz keeps trying to sneak a few sliders over the plate to test the waters and see if he can get the pitch back, and once again, it was crushed. Just abandon that slider, you’re fine without it.

Chase Dollander (COL) vs DET (ND) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 70 pitches.

That 97/98 mph four-seamer is empty velocity, y’all. He doesn’t locate it upstairs enough, nor does it come with backup in the rest of his repertoire. Stop chasing this.

 

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Nick Lodolo vs. Spencer Schwellenbach – I just want you both to be dope. Can you do that for us?

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