Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Woo There It Is

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.

We saw Bryan Woo face the Rangers a week ago and it felt like a throw-away debut that wasn’t representative of the actual pitcher we’d see in the future. Last night’s 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches outing against the Angels felt like the proper debut for Woo and I feel much better assessing the young rookie now.

The Mariners have found themselves as the #1 four-seamer rotation in baseball, with Woo being no exception at 65% four-seamers last night and I don’t blame him. The pitch gets a fair amount of vertical rise and cruised for 34% CSW with 8/53 whiffs, earning multiple strikeouts with the pitch against Mike Trout. We even saw some sinkers as well, one in particular at 96 mph with a whole lot of drop that I thought it was a changeup on strike three. Not reliable in the slightest, but an awesome moment nonetheless.

The slider needs a bit of work as his sole off-speed weapon. He did have a few strong ones, like a slider down-and-inside to Shohei Ohtani, but the ridiculous human made Woo pay for double-dipping, taking the next slider (located out of the zone inside, mind you) yard for Woo’s only ER of the night. That at-bat is why Woo lasted just 4.2 innings as the Mariners pulled him two runners on second and third and Ohtani stepping into the box. That’s my way of telling you not to read too much into the low pitch count as he should be able to go 5+ with 90+ pitches soon.

He does need more help with the secondaries to get a bit more variety, but the fastball is above average and sets the table well. I don’t see him as a must add given the lack of secondaries, but I think he’s worthwhile against the White Sox, even if Chicago is more susceptible to breakers than heaters. This isn’t Bryce Miller 2.0, but he’s worth the shot in hopes there’s more to see with the secondaries over time.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) @ SF (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.

Whoa, do we have a new Minimalist Score leader for 2023?! That’s a 5 as he recorded just five hits + walks + strikeouts across eight frames and you don’t need me to tell you it’s all kinds of weird. 18 called strikes (and zero whiffs) on 64 fastballs is laughably Hendricks and while the curveball is all kinds of shy (four thrown?!) the changeup did its part with many outs. I don’t hate this against the Orioles and Pittsburgh up next and Hendricks’ command feels like it’s there with the best infield defense he’s ever had behind him. But he has only a 38% groundball rate this year! Huh, that is weird. That should change, no? He’s held a mid-40s rate (if not higher) across his career.

Kodai Senga (NYM) @ PIT (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.

Ayyyyy, he had a 41% CSW forkball with 7/22 whiffs! This isn’t rocket science, it’s a gambler’s flip of the cards. You know the game, it’s up to you if you want to play.

Paul Blackburn (OAK) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.

This was a game dominated by cutters and sinkers, with a variety of curves, changeups, and sliders helping however they could. I’m glad to see this is still in Blackburn and he may be a stream to consider in deeper leagues against the Guardians in ten days.

Bobby Miller (LAD) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 104 pitches.

It’s Bobby’s World and we’re just living in it. We got another fun addition of the curve in this one as he split the zone with sliders and sinkers beautifully, though we some a bit of chaos from the four-seamer and it’s why you see a few extra walks. He’s so good though, and I kinda think we’ll see the AGA label soon enough. He’s a legit pitcher.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 105 pitches.

Hmmmmm. 15/51 called strikes on four-seamers isn’t what I expected to see from Abbott and I was disappointed in his curveball – 3/21 whiffs and 14% CSW – while the changeup hung a ton. But hey, if you leaned on it, you got the result you wanted. Consider dropping with the Astros next (I think he gets it?) and an unclear future in the rotation after that…which would be Atlanta after. Ho’ boy. He’s not in a place I’d start him for either.

Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ DET (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

I’ve been anti-Nelson for a bit, rooted in his four-seamer having zero support from his secondaries, but the cutter was fantastic in this one, returning 35% CSW as he located it frequently down-and-armside. This is good – not excellent – and if the four-seamer can perform at an elite level or a third pitch shows up, I’ll begin to lean into Ryne a bit. I don’t think this is enough to start him against the Phillies, though.

Michael Kopech (CWS) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 100 pitches.

The four-seamer was great once again as he returned 64% strikes with seven whiffs on his slider as he needed to. He’s in a much better place than a month ago, but here’s the tough part. Kopech has had five games now against KCR + @CLE + LAA + DET + @MIA, returning 44 strikeouts in those five games, but now he gets the Dodgers + Rangers. Was this a product of an easy schedule or is this a new Kopech that succeeds regardless? I’m struggling with this and I’m leaning in the former, not the latter. However, you also don’t want to “big brain” this and drop when he continues the run. So let’s make a deal and bench him for the next start, cool?

Trevor Richards (TOR) vs MIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 53 pitches.

Oh look, yet another bullpen game. And none rejoiced. I was hoping it would be Bowden Francis for more than 33 pitches, and while he went 40%+ CSW on both the slider and four-seamer, it was just 1/14 whiffs on the heater and none on the slider. Hey, the man is throwing strikes. Kinda curious how he’d perform if given the chance to start. Just a little.

John Brebbia (SF) vs CHC (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 19 pitches.

We saw some Junis destruction (4 ER in 2.2 frames) and then 4.1 IP of perfection with five strikeouts from Sean Manaea. Huh. He nothing nothing down and it sure sounds like a trap to me. He needs that slider and changeup to get looow for sustained success.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ CWS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.

Okay. Alcantara needed a ratio start and in true Sandy fashion, he didn’t get a Win despite the dominance. I’m sad to see just four strikeouts and you can blame his changeup and slider being super off in this one (12/23 changeup strikes?!) as he got on the side of the ball too often. I think that gets corrected and bliss awaits against the Nats.

Julio Teheran (MIL) vs OAK (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

There was a temptation to lead with Teheran today because this is getting bonkers + he gets the Brewers next. Just look at Teheran’s profile page – that mix of blue and red is so weird to see and should help you grasp how this is as textbook of a Vargas Rule as you’ve seen, but I have to give props to his slider for returning a 38% CSW on the season. The sinker, on the other hand, isn’t a 30%+ O-Swing pitch and has continued to induce a ton of hard contact. Ride it if you must against PIT + @CLE next, but we know it ain’t lasting.

Domingo Germán (NYY) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.

That curve is still so wonderful (one of the more underrated ones in baseball?) and I love seeing 11/16 changeup strikes. I wish he didn’t have to go @BOS + TEX for his next two, though I’d hold and start against Boston a second time. He’s in a good place.

Cole Irvin (BAL) vs KC (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.

Huh, I’m surprised the Orioles pulled him after just 72 pitches, but whatever, we take the Win and production and move on. I’m thrilled for Cole (we did a Talking Pitching episode with him and he’s awesome) and to see him play the east-west game effectively is a nice thing, though it’s too early to bank on its consistency. The Cubs make for an uneasy outing and it’s up to you if you want to chase it. I wonder if it’ll be ~80 pitches or 85-90 pitches, which brings haze to a potential QS.

Kyle Freeland (COL) vs SD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.

He can’t keep getting away with it. I feel like my relationship with Senz-A has passed on to Freeland. You do whatever you want, I’m just a dude miles away typing on a computer.

Ryan Weathers (SD) @ COL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 43 pitches.

Oh cool, a bullpen game. WE WANT NICK MARTINEZ. He pitched in this one, you know. WE WANT NICK MARTINEZ AS A STARTER. I do too..and yet he’s been really good in relief. I’m happy for him…?

Johan Oviedo (PIT) vs NYM (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

Whoaaaaa, Oviedo was sitting a tick up on everything here, though I wouldn’t call this one of those precision outings from Johan as four-seamers, curves, and sliders were all over the place. Kinda feel like he got away with this one. Well, he gets the Brewers + Marlins up next and I feel like it’s a slight lean to starting for both. Good luck.

Tanner Houck (BOS) @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.

This was a better-commanded start from Houck with his sinker and splitter, while the slider was a bit wild (55% strike rate) and yet was the CSW champion at a 43% clip. So it goes. Houck becomes incredibly interesting now as he gets a lovely trio of COL + @MIN + @CHW up next and I’m cool with that. Not jumping over everyone as he still has a blegh floor when the command isn’t there, but the margin for error is higher against those squads.

J.P. France (HOU) @ CLE (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.

Well that’s surely a Dusty Donut with a Win and six strikeouts, but a near “VVVVVPQS” (I don’t think it goes that high) and he walked six batters. Whaaaaat?! France hasn’t delivered free gifts like this since 1884. I wouldn’t read much into it and start him against the Reds next time out.

Joe Ryan (MIN) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 84 pitches.

Sure, it’s not explosive, but this was the Jays and we’ll settle for a PQS from Ryan. He did go 0/11 CSW on sliders and just 19% on 26 splitters. There’s work to be done.

Jared Shuster (ATL) vs WSH (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.

Zero strikeouts? ZERO?! My toast is looking at me, blackened and dry. HAISTBMBWT?! I guess he’s just a Frozen Banana and we wait.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ TB (W) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.

Oh dear. At least you got the Win, but a rough fourth took what could have been another day of brilliance into…this. The splitter and cutter returning just 15% CSW each wasn’t great, but it really was just that one frame. Whatareyagonnado.

Brady Singer (KC) @ BAL (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.

Hooo boy. It’s almost like he’s been a Cherry Bomb for three years now. Almost.

Taj Bradley (TB) vs TEX (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 75 pitches.

If only he returned one more groundout, then I could truly say “May the fours be with you”. The four-seamer failed to miss bats and he didn’t have the complements he needed. That change was really bad, too. At least you get Oakland next up, though I think that even with a matchup against Texas, this outing a showcase that Bradley still has work to be done with his command, which holds him back among the young pitcher discussions. Does this mean you favor Eury and Bryce? Yeah, I think it does.

Miles Mikolas (STL) vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 98 pitches.

Tobys gonna put on the tie, show up to work, and hope no one is watching. We’re watching, Mikolas. Wow, that was disturbing and I regret typing it. Sorry. Those two strikeout games were nice n all, but you really should reconsider something else on the wire.

MacKenzie Gore (WSH) @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.

Womp womp. I don’t think I can fully buy into Gore until I see him lean into the BSB route and I get the sense we won’t see it any time soon. His approach seems to be “fastballs in the zone, wherever” and an inability to get his curve and slider inside the zone on demand. I’ve been suckered in at times here, but I think in the end he’s a PEAS and not the one to chase. I get the sense that we don’t want to believe in the development of Nationals SP, sadly.

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 102 pitches.

I watched this one for Woo and found myself unimpressed with Sandoval, and yet he’d get these 84 mph changeups well in the zone swung through by Mariners bats constantly, leading to the shocking Golden Goal for the night. Fun fact: The 32 whiffs shirt we sell honoring The Irish Panda’s 32 whiff evening was against these Mariners last year. Anyway, I’m glad Sandoval could finally come through for strikeouts, but these peaks are few and far between as the slider and changeup rarely show up on the same night + the fastballs are too blegh to create the foundation you deserve.

Matthew Boyd (DET) vs ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.

Oh cool, just 3/25 slider whiffs without the same fastball precision as last time, which meant Boyd didn’t produce for you in the slightest. Cool. Cool cool cool.

Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.

After viewing the best version of McKenzie last time out, we got a worse version here. Fastballs leaked down and sliders were wild, while the Curve went just 2/16 CSW (11/16 strikes though!). Still, the schedule ahead is much better than dealing with the Astros and we hold steady. You’ll be happy with this.

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs LAD (L) – 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 102 pitches.

Uggggggh. Sure, it’s the Dodgers, but man is Nola Mr. Cherry Bomb this year. Is the “every other year” thing legit for him after all? But seriously, it’s hard to argue against seeing 40% CSW on his curve + 47% CSW on his changeup and can you guess what pitch got hit the most? Nope, not his four-seamer, it was his sinker. STOP THROWING IT. For real, just three hits on a four-seamer and two changeups, the other four on sinkers. I really think a four-seamer + curve + changeup Nola is the way to go, with the sinker saved for surprise back-door moments. It’s there, Nola. Just believe.

 

Game of the Day

 

Louie Varland vs. Kevin Gausman – Varland is a fun arm even against the Jays and Gausman has been ridiculous.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Adapted by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)